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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

short_is_good_baboly 178 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 26 minutes ago Member since: Aug 31, 2002
  • short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 4, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    Now that the cross is happening as today, I am afraid to see the worst of HZNP in coming days.
    Last time we saw prices in $12s. I do not think we will see $12 but $13 is very possible. However, economy seems to be weaker and most other stocks are not doing well either.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When this happened in mid Oct last year, the stock dropped to high $12.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • EU already working on taxes. If a company does business in a country then it has the pay same taxes as companies in that country. US to follow. If HZNP does business in US then it has pay the same taxes as a US company.
    Price control will come around too. There is no reason to sell a $15 drug for $1500 especially if the company is a roll-up.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    ES has killed HZNP Q4 earnings

    by goof_goof93 Feb 4, 2016 10:41 AM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 4, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    5% is just from one pharmacy but ES won't take it from any other pharmacy too.

  • Reply to

    EU targets tax-avoiding companies

    by zapmaster_the_kinq Feb 3, 2016 11:12 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 11:27 PM Flag

    That is the time for EU and US to force companies like HZNP to pay their share of taxes. How come they know to raise prices by several times the original but they don't want to pay taxes.
    Price control should the main agenda for every candidate.

  • Reply to

    rum, corvair, baboly

    by samiam3939 Feb 3, 2016 10:08 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 11:18 PM Flag

    Semi, does your shift starts at night or are you Dracula showing up at night to put some nonsense.
    Come on, tell us how much HZNP is up this year?

  • Reply to

    rum, corvair, baboly

    by samiam3939 Feb 3, 2016 10:08 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 10:47 PM Flag

    sami, don't waste your time repeating the same stuff like pe or HZNP mini development. Bread and butter of HZNP is a few specialty drugs but they have been kicked out from most PBMs. So, investors do not believe in HZNP income and the its PE. In addition, FA is a long shot. Of course, geri is excited based on little info but he does not know how that most small companies fail to get FDA approval for their drugs even though they are 100% sure.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    One day up and 3 days down

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:41 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 10:35 PM Flag

    geri, geri, geri. China hurts many US companies which they hurt the US market and the market hurts HZNP.
    Crealta was formed in August 2013 and you may know that Crealta people came from abbott, the same company that Tim used to work.
    Crealta paid $120 for the drug (krystexxa) and just in 2 years sold it for $510 or $390 profit just in 2 years by spending less than $5m for testing. Now HZNP plans to triple the price to get to its goal. However, Savient which developed the drug, did the same but it went BK eventually. Well, Tim was thinking that by raising the prices he can make up for the high acquisition price. So far people may say that is ok but in December FDA approved AstraZeneca new gout drug that may not go well for HZNP. Tim didn't think about this and now HZNP probably wasted some dear cash in this bad market for a bad acquisition.

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 9:10 PM Flag

    Today, NAS was red and DOW green, so for tomorrow NAS goes green and DOW stays flat. Asian market and Europe get excited by today's Dow performance and they mostly go green.
    HZNP will open green but heads down in middle of the day since it gained too much today.
    Long traders can exit early morning and then reposition their shares in middle of the day to gain the difference.
    Short traders can take advantage of head fake in the morning.

  • Reply to

    That dumb sailor must be erect tonite:

    by corvettecars_0 Feb 3, 2016 8:05 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 8:38 PM Flag

    vette, please be polite and do not insult anyone. This is not a personal matter but this a matter of revealing facts for better investment. Do you know that I enjoy russianmule and a few other posters here? Your word are accepted when they are polite, logical and reasonable.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    One day up and 3 days down

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:41 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    Thank you geri but what do mean when you say that I cannot backup what I say?
    I say oil and oil prices are this market problem and almost all analysts say the same.
    I say banks are in trouble and look what happened to them. Big banks like BAC and C are trading at prices of 2009. Small banks like KEY and HBAN are not better. Big medial companies or other international companies are hurting because of strong dollar and China.
    I say HZNP lost money during DEPO failed acquisition which is obvious that Tim bought 2.25m shares of DEPO around $32 per share plus legal and proxy expenses. Thanks God, DEPO didn't sue HZNP for its wasted time and other expenses.
    And lastly, Crystexxa, a drug that send a company to BK and did not worth more than $150m was purchased at $510m cash at the worst market condition. Tell us how much was Crealta revenue out of this drug? HZNP put the purchase price based on $75m revenue but it did not say if Crealta actually made any revenue close to it unless they took $20m rev and triple the price to get close to $75. HZNP was not transplant in this regard. Probably, HZNP was hiding something and that was the reason for investors to yawn after the acquisition announcement.
    Now, in regard to HZNP price. HZNP was around $22 on December 30 last year and as today, it went to mid $15 before rebounding to current prices. This is to say that HZNP has down 30%, from $22 to mid $15. Even at current price, it is down 20% for this year so far. But I am afraid that this is not the end of suffering but more pain ahead. You know that HZNP rebounded a few time times but it went down more the next day.
    Good Geri with your investment since may have less money in your retirement.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 6:00 PM Flag

    1- oil
    2- banks and financials
    3- china
    4- strong dollar
    So low oil prices are hurting oil companies and some cannot pay their banks. Banks lose money because of oil companies and so they are not willing to lend money.
    Now China and strong dollar are another problems for big companies that they used to get their growth.
    So, why HZNP is affected by above? Well, no more cheap money and HZNP cannot afford to get a new acquisition even if it decide to pay with its cheap shares.
    What was the recent HZNP mistake? Crystexxa acquisition was bigger mistake than DEPO failed acquisition. For DEPO, HZNP probably lost around $50m but the losses from Crystexxa is much higher than DEPO.
    When you look at current market, you see that cash is king and when you see that HZNP paid $510m cash for a questionable drug with that BK a company in first place and then paying 4 times the actual price for it then you may scratch your head for that decision. Look around and you see many deals at cheap prices. IRWD used to trade above $16 and now is $8, SPPI was $12 and now $4.
    What was Tim thinking when he bought Crystexxa at that price? If he waited just a few months, he could use the cash for a much better acquisition.
    ABT bought ALR at 2x revenue. This is called smart purchase but when a company pays 10x for a failed drug.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    May be HZNP should wait for the vaccine before offering a price with its shares.

  • Reply to

    Shkreli Update

    by russianmule2000 Feb 3, 2016 3:38 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    With so many roll-ups around, Shkreli won't be alone. May be they form a new company with so much time in their hands.

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    the only honest politician who can help people against corporations greed.
    Richs are getting richer and poor are getting poorer. Somebody has to balance this inequality and Sanders is the man. It is ok if HZNP goes down, much better than let people to suffer. HZNP can still make money with 1/3 price of their drugs. I rather to see HZNP in single price than see people to suffer.

  • Reply to

    One day up and 3 days down

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:41 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    I am wondering if shorts pushed up HZNP to reposition themselves.
    If the stock is up today then it will have more potential to go lower tomorrow.
    A smart investors sells in strength and then buy back when the stock is at its lows.
    Don't think that this trend will continue. It won't and the stock will market lower lows every time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:45 PM Flag

    When banks go down, the whole market goes down and the stocks with marked problem like HZNP will do the worst.

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Feb 3, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    This is the new market reality.
    Sell in strength since most stocks, including HZNP will go lower.
    If $16s is new average price and any price of $17 or higher is a gift.
    Soon, $15 will replace $16s and then $14s replace $15s.
    The sector is in a bad shape and then a few stocks, called roll-ups, will do the worst.
    Anyway, HZNP will touch its last year lows or high $12.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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