I put in an order to buy at the market seconds after the open when the price was in the $6.40s. It didn't fill for three minutes, and then in the $6.60s. Anybody else have a similar experience? Anyone able to buy in the $6.40s?
Makes no sense to me. But I am prepared to believe you IF you can identify one specific case in the last couple of years where the FDA has approved a NDA before a scheduled ADCOM.
I am long MNKD, but I do expect a delay in the PDUFA date. The Adcomm date makes it look like a farce, being only two weeks ahead of the date. And we've all heard Al Mann talk of the volume of data (800,000 pages?). The pps will take a hit when that happens. On the other hand we could get a pop from a partnership announcement. Interesting times.
Serious question - Is there a way to eliminate Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool articles from Yahoo quotes? These useless bits of amateur drivel with their pathetic "Read Me" headlines can be ignored, but they tend to clog up my screen, displacing actual news and thoughtful commentary.
You don't need to stretch that far. Just consider the misguided optimism of Dr. Mann prior to the 2011 CRL. When you buy a share of MNKD, you are buying not only his vision (rosy?) but all his management strengths and weaknesses. IMO he really got a shock in 1/2011, and the trials and FDA relationship have been handled much more professionally. Mann is more circumspect in his utterances than he was three years ago - a development I don't recall from Mr. Perot.
By virtue of Al Mann's ownership and financial resources, he has MNKD uniquely positioned to choose the timing of its marketing partnership. He has nothing to gain by trading off long term benefits in return for some near term funding which would pale in comparison to his investment (equity & debt). Mann is absolutely convinced Afrezza will succeed, and that prospective partners will become easier to deal with as April approaches - and pushovers after FDA approval. IMO he doesn't give a rip about how soon he can cash out. He is a visionary who wants to leave a legacy - revolutionary products which improve people's lives, and rewards to those who share his vision.
I am surprised by the negative comments concerning the time it is taking to get a partnership in place. MNKD is not some startup biotech financed with "fast money" that wants to move on to the next new thing. I believe that Mann will only entrust his legacy to a partner who promises a commitment to his long term goals for Afrezza, and will not be overly concerned about which month it launches, or short term cash returns. In my opinion it is foolish to judge MNKD's timelines against the norms of the biotech industry. Consider that MNKD is an extension of Al Mann, not an investment vehicle for bloodless fundies, and you will understand it more clearly (for better, or for worse).
Why would I take seriously anything posted by a person who refers to himself as a jackass? It's beyond laughable.
Pattern without precedence. Daily volume almost identical, low exactly the same ($6.06) for Wed - Fri. It's almost enough to make you believe there's some big player with an agenda.
Why do you not think the "free market" will cure a shortfall through higher prices? If storage is perceived as too low to maintain pressure or to meet summer demand, won't futures prices rise to stimulate increased production? If there is still a shortage, what good would a government mandate do? You can only squeeze so much blood (gas) from a stone.
If Afrezza is approved, IMO MNKD will be well above $7. Your $3/$7 spread would be worth $4. My $7/$15 spread would be worth $4 at a share price of $11 with potential for an additional $4. If Afrezza is rejected both spreads will be worthless. The PPS will be under $3 IMO. So I don't see your idea as being "safer" in terms of the downside risk. Anyway, to each his own - I hope we both make a ton of $$$.
That will cost you about $1.75 - $0.35 for a May $2 put, and $1.35 for a Jan $10 call. To breakeven, MNKD would have to be below $0.25 in May, or above $11.75 in January. To make a 500% profit, you would need to get a share price over $20.50 in January. ($1.75 invested + 5*$1.75 profit + $10 exercise price) For me to make a 500% profit, I only need a share price of about $14. ($1.10 + 5*$1.10 + $7 exercise price) Given an upcoming binary event with make-it or break-it outcomes, the premiums on MNKD options are very high. That's why I chose to go with a spread (buying the $7, selling the $15) rather than simply buying calls. I am using the fact that the far out-of-the-money $15 calls are priced only slightly more than a dollar over the $7 calls. If I had $1100 to invest, I could get about 10 contracts (1000 shares) and possibly get $8000 back. If I didn't sell the $15 calls, I would be spending $190 per contract, so I could buy only 5.79 contracts. While my upside would be (theoretically) unlimited, in order to reach a value of $8000 I would need $13.80 per contract, or a share price of $20.80. It all comes down to your personal outlook and comfort zone.
I am holding cash out. If I sell a share at $5+ to buy a spread at $1+, I am holding back $4. If I were to sell my shares and use all the proceeds to buy spreads, I would be substantially increasing risk - and reward. I like to sleep at night, and am prepared to give up some reward to reduce risk. It all comes down to your personal preference and view of the future. While I have believed in Afrezza for years, I was badly burned on the last CRL which came as a huge surprise, coming only weeks after Al Mann assured the approval was imminent. I don't trust the FDA, particularly when MNKD is trying to upset the status quo for Big Pharma.
If you trade options, take a look at the January 2015 calls. If you buy a bull spread with the $7 and $15 strikes, you will pay about $1 for a potential value of $8. I have switched a portion of my share position into this play.
My reasoning is that MNKD is primarily a binary play - approval of Afrezza should double the stock (at least) sometime this year; a CRL will kill it. I am willing to give up the first couple of dollars of gain to avoid the possibility of a huge loss - like the one I took on the last CRL. The high IV makes the price of the spread attractive, plus the January expiration allows for a delay in the FDA decision.
Take it FWIW; comments appreciated.
Denver will have two #18 uniforms - one for a guy a bit shorter and rounder than Peyton. That guy will never take his helmet off because his horsey teeth would show. Either way, Broncos win.
Adam, you seem to have lost confidence in your call for Afrezza rejection by the FDA. If not, why did you feel that you had to come up with "Plan B": If the FDA screw up and approve it, Afrezza will not sell? C'mon man - make a yes/no call on the FDA! Shareholders have the nuts to put their money where their mouth is. Why can't you put your rep on the line?