It is apparent that the earthquake issue will get increasing scrutiny in Oklahoma and Kansas. Any regulations which limit fracking or deep well water disposal could have a devastating effect on SD. Monetization of the water disposal business could be extremely difficult in this environment. I believe these issues have emboldened the shorts, and are responsible for much of the recent price drop. Any thoughts?
In February, AZN issued this PR which highlights their plans to expand their diabetes business. Addition of 40+ sales reps at one time indicates anticipation of a jump in activity, possibly involving Afrezza but maybe not. The timing of the job postings indicates that something is going on - either they are MNKD's partner, or just got news that they will not be, and this is a defensive move. Either way it appears MNKD has made a decision. Comments?
I believe that the FDA announces decisions only a couple of days after the company has been advised. I guess Mannkind has had trouble putting a positive spin on the label restrictions and other conditions of approval. Partner negotiations may not be going so well.
But I just got back from the mall and it seemed to me that 90% of the jeans were "slim fit". Where do fat people shop?
His brain is just not functioning properly. He fails to accept that MNKD is A UNIQUE BIOTECH. It has a founder and majority shareholder who is committed the long term success of Afrezza, and doesn't need to partner until the time is right - for him. Adam has tunnel vision - he can't seem to wrap his tiny mind around the fact that Al Mann's company is not a typical cash-strapped firm whose survival depends on an early deal. He should know that any deal prior to approval would have conditions, and would exact a price for any cash up front. Instead of ridiculing management, he should be praising them for their patience, and recognizing that their efforts will result in the best possible long term outcome for shareholders.
While you are right to be concerned about the premium, let's not lose sight of the big picture. If MNKD held in the 10-12 range, you might want to stay as is through any announcement. On the other hand, if it goes to 15-16 before any news is out, you may want to roll into a higher strike ($14?) or simply sell some of your position. IMO, the more we get before the news, the less we get after. Just think through your best, most likely, and worst case scenarios and act accordingly. Good Luck
Options only trade during regular market hours, while the stock will trade before and after market hours. This means that the pps will have time to adjust to any news on approval (or further delay). News usually comes outside of the regular session. This means the premium will be almost gone as soon as the options start to trade. You must ask yourself if the pps after the announcement is likely to be as high as the option had priced in before. If you are confident it will, and can trade quickly if you need to, you may not want to sell until the news is out. Otherwise I would sell all or part of your option position before the announcement.
Good of you to join us. Having established your Yahoo! ID only today, allow me to advise you regarding the issue of credibility. You have none. If you don't have some rarionale for your claims (e.g. Big News), you will be ridiculed and ignored. And you don't want that. Do you?
You Dummy, you're agreeing with me! The FDA is so cautious and scared of mistakes/BP that they have delayed this wonderful product for years. Does anybody really think a few more weeks will matter to THEM! Chill.
At the expiration date the premium or "time value" will come out of the option price. If MNKD were trading at $12 before approval 7/15, and didn't budge until expiration, the value of your July $10 call options would rapidly go to zero or the amount by which the pps exceeds $10. Right now the pricing of July $10 call options includes a premium of about $1.50 per share. If you hold through expiration, you need a pps over $11.78 on the close 7/18 to make money on a $10 call purchased Friday. As kryomax implies, if you think there will be any kind of sell-on the-news reaction, you will want to sell some of your options (particularly the July) before the announcement. Remember you can sell your options at any time at the bid price.
Why would I want to short MNKD? I believe Afrezza will be approved. A partnership announcement could come at any time. I am long but I haven't bet the farm, so I look at the situation more objectively than you can.
First, I believe the overwhelming Adcom vote took the FDA by surprise, requiring an attitude reset and making approval and labelling more complex (e.g. reflecting safety concerns, possible pulmonary testing etc.).
But my primary concern is the bureaucratic system. What incentive does the FDA staff have to give approval before the three month delay runs its course? None. What risk do they face if they approve early then find, before July 15? Anything from reprimand to dismissal.
This reflects a fundamental difference between regulatory agencies (time is inconsequential) and private industry (time is money).
If you "thumbs down" this post, please tell us why FDA staffers would find it in their own best interests to accelerate the process, or what leverage you think MNKD has and would use to get approval a few weeks early.
Did an IPO in Feb at $17, now trading at $9+. Today announced positive results for one of its gene therapy products. Speculative but worth a look for a few bucks, Disclosure - Long.