Good stuff Dndnpro. I am considering other models but wanted to see additional weeks in January before making any adjustments. I think next week's script figure will be telling.
he lives in Canada where it's not available. I think he'd do better to go with OTC EPA. It sounds like Gen. L is garbage.
This sounds promising. I'll reserve my cheers until I see it translate to scripts.
This also begs the question: what the hay was pharmacydude doing taking generic L? He's an AMRN investor so he knows better! I hope he can undo the damage by switching to V.
Why are you working so hard here? ;)
Thanks for the summary!
Thanks for the detail. I agree there is more complexity then I presented above but overall the good news here is we should have sufficient cash for a couple years. If they decide to dilute this year it would likely be due to a major price increase they're taking advantage of. I don't see that as a problem.
They are doing a great job preserving cash. I look forward to seeing a few full weeks of scripts in 2015 to get a sense for growth. Kowa effect should be fully evident this quarter. Even if we maintain current growth trend we are on pace to generate apprx $80M in revs. This matches the lowest analyst estimates according to Yahoo so I see this as worse case scenario which would put us on pace to burn roughly $40M of our $120M cash pool in 2015. And, assuming continuation of current growth rate, we would burn only $5M of the remaining $80M cash pool in 2016.
IMHO we have cash to get through all of RI trial.
Yep. This isn't quite going like they thought it would. Scripts are growing. Retail isn't selling. Overwhelmingly positive reports and studies on EPA getting published almost daily.
They're acting like spoiled children throwing tantrums for not getting what they want.
dndnpro is right. Wellplayed2 is a low paid message board troll who gets extra stars and ribbons to decorate his cubical when he drives intelligent conversation from the board. Just iggy him and ever new alias his employer's workstation generates. Your posts make far more sense than any of his long winded, mind numbingly dum b garbage posts.
if we're going to bash this stock we have to come up with something better than dilution. Maybe the company threw a $80-90M New Years party (billed in 2015) essentially blowing more than a year's worth of cash in one big blowout. Then we would only have 2-3 Quarters of cash leaving us no choice but to dilute this year. Can you confirm this party took place? That would help us in our efforts to get people to sell.
I meant that last year we saw a 20% impact (only 80% of prior week). So basically the same impact as we're seeing this year.
Sorry, not enough coffee yet.
40% fewer days in the week but only 19% fewer TRx. Last year also saw a 80% impact scripts over Xmas. If we follow the same pattern as last year we will be up 24% over Xmas this week which would be 10,549.
So I think we'll kick off the new year above 10K and the linear growth slope at this point is around 90 (it fluctuates a bit with each new week). If we maintain linear growth we'll see roughly $18M revenue in Q1. The recent seeking alpha article by Elephant Analytics forecasts an uptick in growth. He has revs coming in at 21M in Q1. Either way the growth should, in the words of Elephant Analytics, "make us optimistic" that we'll get through 2016 with a modest cash balance.
oh no...hdgabor is baiting you eiretekk. he knows the numbers better than Amarin's accountant.
be careful. very "careful folks'
See, I'm trying to help my new fellow bashers. :)
i was going to provide a counter response but I'm starting to think i need to just let you guys do your thing. You go girl. If you need to fend off buyers in order to reach a certain goal before this turns around then let me know what i can do to help. I'll help you bash if it means we reverse direction sooner than later. email me the script. I'm in. shortfishfry at g m a i l
hd- nobody knows whether AMRN and AZN have discussed patent deals but I have to disagree with you on whether it's a good idea.
As I look at Epanova's side effects I can't imagine any current Vascepa patient permanently switching to Epanova (at 4gms 15% diarrhea, 6% nausea, 5% abdominal pain/discomfort, 3% eructation and more!). What benefit do they get other than side effects?
They might try it on advise of physician but they would likely come back to V (after slapping their physician). On the other hand, if Epanova is prescribed first it would likely be a positive if switched to Vascepa. In the end, the better drug will prevail and $100-$150M will buy a lot of time and energy for Vascepa to work its magic in the market.
For the record I'm not trying to start a deal speculation either. The possibility of a deal like this was brought up in this thread so I explored the logic and concluded it is feasible.