Only $3 of GAAP EPS. Trading at 40x free cash flow. Fair value $110 at best. Nice 50% downside. All the retail investors will see how much it is down this weekend and put in sell orders on Monday.
Put a 30x multiple in line with Whole Foods (which is growing slower), and you get a $48 stock. Look for it to cross $40 tomorrow. Easy money buying it at $37 in the after market.
There's an article on the respected buyside site called Sumzero that this stock is worth $110 at best. Lot of accounting irregularities. Only $3 of GAAP EPS. Look for another 20% drop in a week.
If I were a lender to this company, I would be seriously worried. Trading at 30x cash flow from operations (and 40x free cash flow), while 10x would be a reasonable multiple. $60 per share fair value.
Will spend all their profits on buying worthless companies. Mark Z needs a course in finance and valuation. $1 of GAAP EPS and 40x multiple = $40 stock at best.
Bad enough that they exclude recurring expenses like stock compensation, but they don't even tax-effect it, inflating the non GAAP number by 50%.
Hugely overpaying for FRX. Easy to say "non GAAP accretion" by excluding a huge amount of restructuring costs. This is a Ponzi scheme with $3 of GAAP EPS. They will soon run out of acquisitions with which to fudge their results, just like Enron and Tyco did.
Paying 2x revenues and 10x EBITDA. Probably in the range of 25x taxed operating income. Sellers are smart enough not to take CFX stock, so they have to do an equity issue. Look for more restructuring and other charges. Fair value $40.
Who is buying this at such an inflated valuation for a loss-making company with no leverage that is burning cash? Even at 3x revenues, you get only $10 per share. Short interest is pretty low, which means once it starts going down, there will be no support.
Coke and Pepsi copy each other. One bought their bottlers and the other followed. I'm sure the bankers are calling Pepsi right now pitching a SODA deal.
Expect an acquisition @ $60 per share. Remember, last year there were rumors and SODA went above $70.
Put a conservative 12x multiple on $6 of EPS and you get a $72 stock price. Meanwhile, you get a dividend while you wait and company is buying back stock. Almost 40% upside.
Dream on! Growing EPS 10-15% a year = GAAP EPS of $50 next year. 16x multiple = $800