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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

shortzonsportz 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 8, 2016 2:37 PM Member since: Sep 25, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Only salvation a buyout

    by miguel_abiti Feb 8, 2016 12:14 PM
    shortzonsportz shortzonsportz Feb 8, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    1) They had $200m of working cap in Q3. This will then turn to cash in Q4. Same cycle has occurred for 15+ years. Its a seasonal business Einsteain

    2) Toys R Us owes us next to nothing as of Q1 - so what?

    3) Its converbile debt. And their net debt as of Q4 will be about $50-60m. They have $50-60m of EBITDA - that is extremely low leverage by anyones definition.

    4) What about Frozen II, Star Wars Episode VIII, Star Darlings etc. etc

    5-7) Make no sense; Wake Up

  • shortzonsportz shortzonsportz Feb 8, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    Actually, we do have proof. If you go back and look at when the short positions were created, they coincide exactly with the convertible offerings.

    If you don't believe this fact, then you are simply ignorant.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Feb 5, 2016 12:59 PM Flag

    Net Tangible Assets are about $85m now. Equity value is $125m.

    Could we sell all of the licenses and products we currently have for $50m? Seeing the EBITDA is more than that. I would sincerely hope so.

    At this point, and with no history to demonstrate anything to the contrary - liquidate this thing. This company has to cease to exist. It literally is creating negative value. Put these assets under a different umbrella and watch it grow and see shareholders rewarded.

    This is absurd.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Feb 4, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    Am I the only one who wakes up every day thinking these guys do something "strategic" or add value in some manner? I am starting to really feel like a fool.

    Its just absolutely shocking to me that our fiduciaries on the Board let this occur.

    How can any BOD member not think we are in crisis mode and demand action? I know if I was the CEO/CFO I would have daily activities around resurrecting this share price.

    But to do nothing and let the Shorts just play us is silly. Give the longs some reason to be here Board. Some small small reason.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Feb 2, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    These guys are the lamest activist investors I have ever seen. I know Berman has the BOD in his pocket, but I find it hard to believe the large institutional shareholders (not Dr. Pat) wouldn't support anything they proposed.

    If their plan was to lull us to sleep, its worked.

    I think they have to realize they cannot exit this investment so something is better than nothing. Get this to $9 and get out.

  • Reply to

    Thinking out loud

    by jjwalker964 Feb 1, 2016 7:48 PM
    shortzonsportz shortzonsportz Feb 1, 2016 9:45 PM Flag

    Yes that is happening. Remember 2 distinct tranches of debt 2018 and 2020.

    But they can also be destroyed with any significant buying like Oasis last Spring.

    But the shorts know that no institutions trust this mgmt team so they have little risk.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Jan 27, 2016 5:36 PM Flag

    Does anyone know what the rank and file think of either Berman/Bennett?

    Seems like these troops would be very restless with the level of incompetency we have all witnessed over the last several years. Is there high turnover? Are they loyal? Do they respect them?

    Just curious. Would be good info to have.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Jan 20, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    1) This should be a good thing with the stock down. The company should be gobbling up these underpriced shares via the buyback

    2) The Chairman should issued a statement on behalf of the Board stating their disillusionment between the stock price performance over the last several years and operating performance. As a result of this disconnect, the Board and Management are evaluating all strategic alternatives that may result in material shareholder appreciation. Note this doesn't mandate they do anything silly but it certainly would tell shareholders we aren't idiots either. We notice what is going on and we are tired of it.

    3) High growth high margin firms have EBITDA multiples north of 12x. Steady high margin businesses have 8-12X EBITDA multiples. Low growth low margin firms have 6-8x multiples. 5-6x are for companies with great uncertainty. Companies trading at below 4x multiples are doomed typically either because of liquidity concerns or people think the earnings will disappear imminently. Clearly, we should at least be getting 5-6x or $10-12 share. Management cant get there on its own so its time for private money to do it.

    4) I am estimating we have $15m left on our buyback. Add another $15 to it. We have nothing else to spend the money on and we can afford it. This will speak volumes.

    5) At some point, management's poor performance must be addressed. I think Aeish has already beaten this drum but assuming he is correct -40% over the last 6 years is somewhat astonishing.

    I truly hope the Board is engaged and working to correct these problems. Yes, the market is down. But we were down to begin with. And what happens if the economy really does fall further then earnings will retreat and we are looking at much bigger losses. I am sure our CEO still wants his $20 PPS. It isn't going to happen and we need to stop looking in the rear view mirror. We could get $11 though and there are lot of people who would gladly take that.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Jan 12, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    These poor guys got schooled by Berman too - ourselves included. I actually thought these guys would come in and demand change, but it appears they naively thought patience and a gentle touch would work.

    Unfortunately for Oasis, there is now no way for them to extricate themselves from this investment without a massive loss.

    Gotta give it to Berman. He knows how to use his many lives. He has loyal lieutenants on the BOD who will back him willingly. And he knows how to slow play any challengers. Welcome to the club Oasis.

    I wish I still had hope with Oasis but with each passing day, the indifference grows stronger.

  • Reply to

    If your a BOD member,

    by rippingoodcookies Jan 8, 2016 2:32 PM
    shortzonsportz shortzonsportz Jan 8, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    What else at these price levels could they justify spending money other than their own shares?

    I also do not understand how they went through the litigation this year and settlement that was to protect us all and then grant those shares to Berman. $3m+ seems extremely rich for a micro-cap company plus Cash Compensation and other perks. It really seems strangely insensitive and out of touch with shareholders.

    At this point, they cant afford a new CEO like I was hoping when they gave Berman the new title. They will have to hire a search firm, pay him more than Berman, and give him all sorts of promises and signing bonuses. Considering this company is worth a cup of coffee, it just cant be done - which probably means its already done and coming soon.

    I have been here a while, and I have been hopeful because this isn't a very complicated business. But man, does mgmt. make it difficult on themselves (despite the generous pay packages).

    Unfortunately, the large shareholders still remain quiet. I guess they all bought the converts and are satisfied waiting it out while they clip their 4.5% coupons. Lucky us.

    Oasis help us!

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Dec 4, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    What are they waiting for?

    Ominous sign for the quarter. Only reason not to spend the money is if you think its going lower. They now have ample cash.

    Looks like Q4 will be bad.

  • shortzonsportz by shortzonsportz Nov 13, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    I am growing more concerned about the strong dollar to. This will have a devastating impact on MTW as well.

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