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InterOil Corporation Message Board

shredda34 79 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 12:53 PM Member since: Jul 12, 2013
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  • shredda34 shredda34 Jul 19, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Take your spam and pump and dump schemes elsewhere. There is a reason this message board is titled "Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board."

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jul 18, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    Yes, they could end the trial early, however, I am not sure if the 5-month timeframe that AKBA management has set is based on a medical condition. If I had to guess, I would say "yes". I do not see them setting an arbitrary 5-month timeframe based on "pick a number of months" type method. I believe there is medical significance to their decision to have the phase 2b trial set at 5-months. If this isn't the case, it is my hope that they would end it early and report results (positive results is my hope).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jul 17, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Thank you for the compliment. I have been following Akebia for quite some time now, and I believe this company will deliver on what it states. As someone who has a medical ailment, I commend companies such as Akebia. Patients and shareholders will be rewarded in due time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jul 17, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Exactly 5 months. Once this period is over, we'll receive results. I'm not sure how quickly akba management will release the results due to the time it takes for the decimation of result data (i.e. Final lab tests at 5-month finish date), nevertheless, I believe management will have a firm understanding of the outcome at the 5-month finish date.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jul 16, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    The earliest we will get results is September, and if not an early release in September, I see the results coming in October. The trial period is 20 weeks representing 200 patients, and Morgan Stanley analyst David Friedman stated in April 2014 that Phase 2b already enrolled the 200 patients, which makes me think that Phase 2b started in April (or May at the latest).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Should the Company be Sold Or?

    by tarulestheday Jul 16, 2014 12:55 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jul 16, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Should have been sold on December 6, 2013.

  • The Federal Reserve made quite the unusual statement today stating that certain sectors are overvalued/stretched. Two sectors the Fed pointed out were the biotech and social media, hence the pps action. This noise will pass - for long investors, stay focused on the upcoming Phase 2b results due 4th quarter 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is this getting hammered like this?

    by courtneysinger27 Jul 9, 2014 12:20 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jul 9, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    My two cents: 1.) due to the market being fully aware that no news will come until 4th quarter (phase 2b results), not many new buyers will come in until we get a month or two closer. 2.) for a drop of almost 18% in 3 days, the volume is very low. The float on this stock is quite small, and the bid-ask prices, at the moment, are not close, relatively speaking. Given that, very easy to move AKBA on low volume. I also believe that a remnant of investors that moved the pps up to $31, are walking it down (selling and/or shorting) knowing that no news will come until the 4th quarter. Only news that could come is an analyst opinion, most likely an initiation of coverage. Very easy to manipulate a stock price with no news and a small float. I would not put in stop-losses and ride it out.

    Also, my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth: I believe, if phase 2b and eventually 3 results are positive (which have a good chance, IMO), Novartis will buyout the company. Why? Because they are the #1 shareholder with over 4.9 million shares (most pre-ipo), and akba moved their corporate office to Cambridge, Mass to be closer to Novo. Novo will ride akba up from their purchase price of around $7-8 per share, and then offer a bid for the company (hopefully around the Morgan Stanley estimates). Given this, I am quite confident if we ride through the swings, we shareholders will be rewarded in due time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any news?

    by rmnew2fl Jul 8, 2014 11:10 AM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jul 8, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Market sell-off as a whole is taking down small caps. Silver lining, low volume and no adverse news. We will not have any news until 4th quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only Bloomberg's word, take it for what it's worth. Note: Bloomberg is no friend to NQ.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jun 25, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    Also to note, the selloff was on low volume, only about 50-60k shares that pushed it down 5%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shredda34 shredda34 Jun 24, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    You got that right - a tremendous buy n hold equity which will soon kiss the $20's goodbye.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any news out? Couldn't find anything on my end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 18, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    Otriad - can you explain how you determined the $35 pps, from a technical standpoint? Thank you

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 18, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Summary & Conclusions
    We are initiating coverage of Akebia (AKBA) with an Overweight rating and a $90 price target.
    Akebia is a biotechnology company focused on drugs impacting the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) pathway. The lead drug, AKB-6548, is a once daily pill currently in Ph 2b for the treatment of anemia in the setting on chronic kidney disease (CKD), with plans to broaden the target market in Ph 3 (dialysis) and beyond (idiopathic age related anemia, etc.). We expect AKB-6548 to be partnered ex-US in 2017, be on the market by 2018, and have peak (2025) WW sales of $2.2bn. A second drug, AKB-6899, is preclinical and may be developed for indications including oncology and ophthalmology.
    Below, and in further detail inside, we discuss the key focus points for AKB-6548:
    1) the solid Ph 1/2 efficacy to date,
    2) the evolving, currently clean, safety profile,
    3) the potential path to market, and
    4) the sizeable commercial opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 18, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Data: The Ph 2a data (n=93) showed AKB-6548 was safely able to raise hgb levels by ~1+ gm/dL – a meaningful change. The drug was easily dose titrated to avoid hgb overshooting (a regulatory concern). We look to the ~200 patient, 20 wk Ph 2b data at YE14 to confirm Ph 2a data and increase confidence in Ph 3.

    Risks: There are few key risks that we think will mostly be mitigated by the time of Ph 3 start in ’15. 1) Safety – The drug has been safe to date, but in a relatively small patient set. The Ph 2b data should help confirm safety in CKD patient population, which is known to be on the sick

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 18, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    One message of a few to follow: We see Akebia’s lead asset, AKB-6548, as having $2+bn WW sales potential in its first indications.

    AKB-6548, the lead Akebia asset, is targeting the large and underserved CKD anemia patient population. We see this asset as having a) a novel approach for anemia, b) $2+bn potential in its lead indications, c) generated good, albeit early, proof of concept data, and d) lower overall risk than the Street assigns.

    Novel Approach: AKB-6548 (and the earlier stage AKB-6899) target the HIF pathway and increase the lifespan, and thus activity, of HIF proteins. The HIF pathway is activated as a person goes to higher altitudes. This leads to physiologic changes including increasing the production and “efficiency” of RBC’s – the cells which are low in anemia. We view this as a potentially more physiologic approach to anemia correction vs. the current standard of care using large doses of erythropoietin and/or iron.

    Large Market: We expect Akebia, and HIF competitors (see inside for competitor discussion), to start targeting the CKD and dialysis markets as unmet need is high (2+mn anemic patients) and the data for the class to date have primarily been generated in these patients. Specifically in CKD, the current IV/SC options are not viewed as optimal and have not deeply penetrated. We see the potential for a safer to dose drug that has a steady impact on anemia correction as significant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 18, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    Hi otriad, yes I do. I'll post substantial pieces of the report later today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 17, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Thanks, John. Hence this being a message board, it is important that individuals like yourself share your opinion. I invest with Morgan Stanley, and have read the analyst's assessment on AKBA; nevertheless, it is helpful to hear what the AKBA community can add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2a vs 2b

    by shredda34 Jun 13, 2014 5:06 PM
    shredda34 shredda34 Jun 17, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Thank you, John. Given that I am not an MD or subject matter specialist in the anemia realm, could you put an arbitrary percentage on the likelihood of these results being favorable?

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