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PHAZAR CORP Message Board

shrewd_curmudgeon 50 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 35 minutes ago Member since: Oct 30, 2000
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  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon 2 hours 35 minutes ago Flag

    Here are my assumptions. Current annual revenue $70 million, revenue growth rate 5% (conservative), Net operating profit margin 10.5%, other items from balance sheet. I reduce operating income based on investment and depreciation. I use these in a 10-yr projection and discount the free cash flow. This comes out more clear in my calculation, but you can probably match the few columns that I've posted below:

    Year Net_Op_prof_post_tax Free_cash_flow Discounted_FCFF
    0 $70.0 million
    1 $73.5 million $6.6 million $7.1 million $6.6 million
    2 $77.2 million $6.9 million $7.5 million $6.4 million
    3 $81.0 million $7.2 million $7.9 million $6.3 million
    4 $85.1 million $8.9 million $8.3 million $6.2 million
    5 $89.3 million $9.4 million $8.7 million $6.0 million
    6 $93.8 million $9.9 million $9.1 million $5.8 million
    7 $98.5 million $10.3 million $9.6 million $5.7 million
    8 $103.4 million $10.9 million $10.0 million $5.6 million
    9 $108.6 million $11.4 million $10.5 million $5.5 million
    10 $114.0 million $12.0 million $11.1 million $5.3 million
    Discount Free Cash Flow from 10yr period $64 million
    Residual Cash flow beyond yr 10yr: $59 million
    Short-term assets minus liabilities $11 million
    Net Total Value to Common Equity $124 million
    Intrinsic Stock Value $20 per share.
    I believe most of these values and assumptions are pretty conservative, and I think we will find that $20 per share is an underestimate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 17, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    The $124 million comes from my discounted cash flow valuation of the company based on all liabilities and assets of the company and on the revenue and operating profit margins and on the tax expenses, investment expenses, change in working capital and on my conservative 5% estimated growth rate and on the cost of capital. I can give you the assumptions and the numbers calculated from a 10yr projection if you want.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 16, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    FONR is an undervalued company. I am glad to see it in the $11.90 per share range. They are in a growing business and a nicely profitable business. The company is bringing in $70 million per yr in revenue. Balance sheet is strong. They have increased their cash position to over $11 million. And cash flow from operations is $10 million per year. I see that the prior year’s Q3 quarter was announced on May 15, and we are likely to see earnings released around that date again this year. I project that FONR will have $18 million in revenue for Q3 and will have $2.2 million in net income (or a hefty $0.35 per share). This would be significantly better than the prior Q3. The capabilities of FONR’s products are being recognized and acknowledge throughout the world now and this will show even more as time moves onward.
    Based on liabilities, assets, revenue, margins, and cash flow, I see that FONR is intrinsically worth $124 million. With only 6.2 million shares outstanding, that means FONR is intrinsically worth $20 per share. That is a conservative valuation. If FONR exceeds $0.35 per share, then FONR is likely to see significant upside beyond $20 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nice results today from Surge Components. Net income grew by 8% over corresponding quarter of the prior year. The company is doing well with cash flowing in. Right now the company is priced for bankruptcy. The market has been pricing SPRS as if it will not grow. This is good. Net assets are worth $11 million. Total market cap is $7.0 million. The Enterprise value of the company is only $0.37 million. Net assets have risen. Net assets of the company alone are worth $1.13 per share. The current price might make sense if they were losing money, but the company is growing and net income and cash flow are positive. The company can earn over $0.8 million per year (and this is my very conservative projection). The annual earnings and current book value suggest that the company is reasonably worth $11 million plus 10*$0.8 million = $19 million. With only 9.7 million shares outstanding, that comes to $1.96 per share. It will be easy for SPRS stock price to get over $2 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Going Out On A Limb Here

    by pa1702 Apr 13, 2015 2:13 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 14, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    bjr, You are the kind of guy when someone gives you a new Telsa, you say, "But I wanted yellow pinstripes and this one you gave me a Tesla that has white pinstripes". I'm just sayin'. That's fine, you have a valid question/complaint. Small businesses are almost always lumpy. You get revenue increases or you get margin increases but not generally both and not necessarily consistently. Yes, it would be nice if they explained this. My take from reading the 10Q is that the Aerospace market is higher margin typically than the Construction market. You will note that in the prior year's Q3, TAYD had 39% of revenue from Construction, and now in the latest Q3 it has 57% of its revenue from Construction. That is a nice increase, but the fraction of revenue from Aerospace has gone down by a similar percentage (although the total is rising nicely). I think that change in mix is what has affected margins, but I believe both businesses are healthy. In conclusion, I agree it would be comforting if management would address that change in margin. That is a great question for IR, do you want to call them or should I?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 13, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    The wireless business is trying to get away from the money-losing ALU. This is very bearish for what remains in ALU. The fiber optic systems business is going to go down the drain after this. This is very bullish for CIEN and INFN as the money losing fiber equipment segment goes down the tubes.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • For the latest quarter AGX posted revenues were $102.3 million compared to $59.5 million for the corresponding three months ended January 31, 2014.
    Analysts expected $0.36 per share. Argan reported net income of $6.0 million, or $0.40 per share. They beat by 11%. There are only 14.8 million shares of AGX.
    The company has enterprise value of only $170 million.
    Balance sheet is even stronger.
    With annual net income of $25 million per year, we should conservatively expect enterprise value to rise to $250 million. That would be over $40 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 1, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Prior to a few months back, PERI was dropping like a rock. In the last few month it had found its bottom. PERI had beaten estimates for a couple quarters in a row. Now, the stock has found its base and is heading up nicely. Congrats on the new trend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 31, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    Excellent. CZBS showed $0.22 per share for Q4 net income. They have a much improved balance sheet. The company is doing very well (better than stock price indicates). Probably will rise. Beautiful

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 31, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    P&F Industries is doing quite well. Even with the $1.3 million in non-operating charges in 2014 (due to acquisition costs and due to amortization), the company posted very strong results. Net income was quite strong for 2014 at $2.1 million including the above mentioned charges. Revenue for Q4 was 16% higher than the corresponding quarter of the prior year. They have done well even during the move of their facility from Mentor (near Cleveland), OH to Cranberry (near Pittsburg), PA.
    Let’s get to the fundamentals and valuation.
    Revenue was $75 million for 2014 and I am projecting $82 million for 2015. For Q1 I am projecting $19 million in revenue for Q1 2015. I expect Net income will be a quite strong $0.7 million for Q1. For the 2015 full year, I believe we will see $4 million in net income. They do have to control CEO compensation however. With these numbers, I have done a discounted free cash flow analysis (based on 5% growth rate, and on latest short and long term liabilities, etc). The intrinsic value of PFIN in my view is conservative $52.8 million. There are only 3.7 million shares outstanding. That intrinsic value comes to $14.20 per share.
    P&F is a bargain below $14 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 31, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    Infinera is in with the fast growing / leading companies. Today's Facebook announcement is evidence of that.
    It is amazing what Infinera has done for companies. Some old, stodgy companies have been very conservative in adopting new transport equipment. Others have benefited greatly by the lower overall net cost (CapEx and OpEx) and new capabilities provided by the fast, compact and easy-to-run systems that Infinera offers. Here is a comparison (Level3, AT&T, and Verizon). Can you guess which one uses INFN equipment and which two are losing IP market share and not growing?
    https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LVLT+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%222y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A%7B%22VZ%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22T%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23009999%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%7D%7D

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • HNRG will likely bring in $420 million in revenue for 2015. The company has strong margins. Take a look at recent quarters and at analyst estimates. Hallador are likely to earn $40 million in net income for 2015. If you do a discounted free cash flow analysis, you will find that the intrinsic value is about $609 million even with conservative assumptions on growth and margins and balance sheet. The stock is trading at a market cap of only $354 million. It is likely we will see a near doubling of HNRG value. The stock is still undervalued at $20 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    litigation.

    by symmetric_prime Mar 23, 2015 9:12 AM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 23, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    I think the boutique law firm got mixed up and sent out about the wrong company. Look, they even forgot to send out any reason in the press release. One would think they would actually release some information if they send out a press release. If you go to their website and find the link for "cases and investigations", you do not find TAYD listed under that list. If they are "investigating" the company as the PR says, you would think that they would have listed the company under the list of companies that they are "investigating".That law firms seems very disorganized.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 13, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Analysts were projecting a consensus of +$0.06 per share.
    TA just posted +$0.91 per share. This is huge!
    TA is way undervalued. I gotta buy more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 13, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    The company CHE knows its stock is undervalued around $116, that is why it has approved repurchasing $100 million of its own shares. This company is financially looking very strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Huge results. Headed to $20 per share

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 12, 2015 1:13 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 13, 2015 2:04 AM Flag

    Funny, your Alzheimer's must be kicking in. I have posted a number of times, some recently: Take a look at Oct 23rd and Sept 30th.
    I follow the company intently and read everything that comes out, especially the 10Qs and 10Ks. Personally, I think it is a bargain. Take it easy on the sudden insults. What do you see as intrinsic value for CLRO?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 12, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    I was hoping for $13 million in revenue and $1.5 million in non-GAAP net income.
    CLRO just posted $15.4 million in revenue and $3.8 million in non-GAAP net income.
    CLRO could easily double on these results. Balance sheet is great, cash flow is excellent. We could see $20 per share in the next few months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1.29 today

    by t_baroi Mar 11, 2015 10:55 AM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 11, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    This one is headed to $3 per share. Cash flow is strong. Correction was far overdone. It might now go to $5 per share this year, but $3 per share is very likely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I was hoping for $5 million in revenue for Q4 and for net income of -$1 million for Q4. Now, the big quarters are coming. We will likely see over $4 million in net income for 2015 FY. If that happens, we are likely to see the share price well over $5 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 4, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    Indeed. The downgrade that has started being propagated today should have been 3 years ago if the analysts were any good. Now, the company is showing much more progress. I think the downgrade that came out today is very positive sign and is there because some larger investors will be acquiring shares of IVAC. IVAC has developed a proprietary diamond-like carbon coating which can be applied onto the front surface of cover glasses for mobile display, such as telephones and tablets. The public release of downgrades don't just come out because some do-gooder person wants to help the public. Nope, the come out before analysts shake out shares for ideal entry points for those with deep pockets. We will see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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