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shrewd_curmudgeon 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 10:41 AM Member since: Oct 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Foward P/E is 11

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Nov 24, 2014 6:43 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 30, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    Beautiful new quarterly results. I think my $30 per share is an underestimate. Based on these new numbers, I will have to update my projections. Fantastic business results, stock will likely follow upward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The trend is your friend.
    Revenues for Q1 are $22.1 million (up 42% compared to $15.6 million in the comparable 2014 period). Gross margin increased to 25% as compared to 11.6% in the first quarter of 2014.
    Net income for the quarter was $1.9 million, or $0.06 per basic and diluted share, compared to net income of $160,000, or $0.01 per basic and diluted share, in the first quarter of 2014.
    These are strong revenue increases and excellent improvement of margins. I would not be surprised to see a significant rise in the stock over the next few months, probably over $6 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 30, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Excellent. Margins were strong. CLRO posted non-GAAP net income of $0.17 per share vs. $0.13 analyst consensus.
    When I do a cash flow analysis on this based on the latest numbers and with conservative assumptions, I estimate that CLRO has an intrinsic value slightly over $14 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 29, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    I project that earnings will be around $130 million for this quarter (compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year or $43 million). This should put them on track for $530 million in annual net income. In my view FLEX is conservatively worth about $9 billion. That is $16 per share. If FLEX beats the $130 million in net income later today, we may likely see upside beyond $18 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 28, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Revenue is up again to $83.3m for the quarter (vs. $61.9m). That is 35% growth! The company reported $21.2 million or 38 cents per share. This is far higher than prior year’s quarter (nearly double prior year's quarter and also beats analyst EPS estimates). A lot more profit rolls in to RPXC. These results are excellent. Bery profitable guidance is announced. We will likely see RPXC over $20 per share soon. Congrats!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Chemed revenue is up again to $377 m for the quarter (vs. $358 m in the prior year's quarter). They had $26.8 million in adjusted net income. There are only 17.47 million diluted shares. They continue to retire shares. EPS was $1.54 per share. This beats the analysts’ projection of $1.44 per share by $0.10 per share!
    CHE has beaten estimates and raised guidance. Full-year 2015 adjusted earnings per diluted share, had been $6.07, and guidance is now announced for the company to be in the range of $6.50 to $6.70.
    I would not be surprised to see CHE over $140 per share very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 28, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Nice. Another $13.8 million in adjusted net income came in for Q1. Diluted EPS for the first quarter 2015 was $0.64, excluding the $0.09 of translation expense and exchange effects in taxes. More profits continue to roll in for IPHS and they continue to repurchase more shares. We will likely see $65 price per share this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I project revenues will be $70 million for Q1. Net income will be $10 million on 75 million shares. That comes to an EPS of $0.13 per share. Cash flow from operations will be $15 million. Considering net assets and cash flow, this puts the company on track conservatively for a market cap of $500 million. If they hit these projectioned results that puts PERI on track for a price per share of $6.67 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CAMP to close over $ 19.00 tomorrow

    by saicinthemoney Apr 21, 2015 11:46 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 26, 2015 1:32 AM Flag

    The trend is your friend
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=camp
    Top line numbers growing; bottom line numbers growing significantly!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CAMP to close over $ 19.00 tomorrow

    by saicinthemoney Apr 21, 2015 11:46 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 22, 2015 2:47 AM Flag

    Indeed. CAMP had been underestimated. This company is doing very well. Congrats.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q4 results and valuation of PFIN

    by shrewd_curmudgeon Mar 31, 2015 2:13 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 21, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    This is looking excellent. I was able to pick up some shares at $6.40 per share. Beautiful!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 21, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    Thanks. Indeed tax rate has been low, but for the calculation, I had assumed it would rise to 15% going forward.
    I did the new calculation -- same but with 0% assumed growth rate, and I come to an intrinsic value of $15 per share (even with this no-growth assumption).
    I have done this intrinsic value evaluation for hundreds of companies and with this level of conservatism, FONR is among the best I see out there (even undervalued with rather pessimistic assumptions).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 20, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    I find it surprising that you expect less than 2% growth.
    Here is the history of FONR over the past 5 years:
    Year Revenue ($M)
    2010 31.8
    2011 33.1
    2012 39.4
    2013 49.1
    2014 68.5
    To me that looks like 21% annual revenue growth. FONR may have had a bigger acceleration from 2013 to 2014 and for that reason, may see a smaller increase to 2015, but these are excellent revenue growth numbers, and this is attributable to the capabilities of the product and the demand. I still see 5% growth as conservative. I will take a look at (soon) what the even more conservative (pessimistic) assumption of 0% growth would project out to in terms of pps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 19, 2015 1:57 AM Flag

    Here are my assumptions. Current annual revenue $70 million, revenue growth rate 5% (conservative), Net operating profit margin 10.5%, other items from balance sheet. I reduce operating income based on investment and depreciation. I use these in a 10-yr projection and discount the free cash flow. This comes out more clear in my calculation, but you can probably match the few columns that I've posted below:

    Year Net_Op_prof_post_tax Free_cash_flow Discounted_FCFF
    0 $70.0 million
    1 $73.5 million $6.6 million $7.1 million $6.6 million
    2 $77.2 million $6.9 million $7.5 million $6.4 million
    3 $81.0 million $7.2 million $7.9 million $6.3 million
    4 $85.1 million $8.9 million $8.3 million $6.2 million
    5 $89.3 million $9.4 million $8.7 million $6.0 million
    6 $93.8 million $9.9 million $9.1 million $5.8 million
    7 $98.5 million $10.3 million $9.6 million $5.7 million
    8 $103.4 million $10.9 million $10.0 million $5.6 million
    9 $108.6 million $11.4 million $10.5 million $5.5 million
    10 $114.0 million $12.0 million $11.1 million $5.3 million
    Discount Free Cash Flow from 10yr period $64 million
    Residual Cash flow beyond yr 10yr: $59 million
    Short-term assets minus liabilities $11 million
    Net Total Value to Common Equity $124 million
    Intrinsic Stock Value $20 per share.
    I believe most of these values and assumptions are pretty conservative, and I think we will find that $20 per share is an underestimate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 17, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    The $124 million comes from my discounted cash flow valuation of the company based on all liabilities and assets of the company and on the revenue and operating profit margins and on the tax expenses, investment expenses, change in working capital and on my conservative 5% estimated growth rate and on the cost of capital. I can give you the assumptions and the numbers calculated from a 10yr projection if you want.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 16, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    FONR is an undervalued company. I am glad to see it in the $11.90 per share range. They are in a growing business and a nicely profitable business. The company is bringing in $70 million per yr in revenue. Balance sheet is strong. They have increased their cash position to over $11 million. And cash flow from operations is $10 million per year. I see that the prior year’s Q3 quarter was announced on May 15, and we are likely to see earnings released around that date again this year. I project that FONR will have $18 million in revenue for Q3 and will have $2.2 million in net income (or a hefty $0.35 per share). This would be significantly better than the prior Q3. The capabilities of FONR’s products are being recognized and acknowledge throughout the world now and this will show even more as time moves onward.
    Based on liabilities, assets, revenue, margins, and cash flow, I see that FONR is intrinsically worth $124 million. With only 6.2 million shares outstanding, that means FONR is intrinsically worth $20 per share. That is a conservative valuation. If FONR exceeds $0.35 per share, then FONR is likely to see significant upside beyond $20 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nice results today from Surge Components. Net income grew by 8% over corresponding quarter of the prior year. The company is doing well with cash flowing in. Right now the company is priced for bankruptcy. The market has been pricing SPRS as if it will not grow. This is good. Net assets are worth $11 million. Total market cap is $7.0 million. The Enterprise value of the company is only $0.37 million. Net assets have risen. Net assets of the company alone are worth $1.13 per share. The current price might make sense if they were losing money, but the company is growing and net income and cash flow are positive. The company can earn over $0.8 million per year (and this is my very conservative projection). The annual earnings and current book value suggest that the company is reasonably worth $11 million plus 10*$0.8 million = $19 million. With only 9.7 million shares outstanding, that comes to $1.96 per share. It will be easy for SPRS stock price to get over $2 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Going Out On A Limb Here

    by pa1702 Apr 13, 2015 2:13 PM
    shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 14, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    bjr, You are the kind of guy when someone gives you a new Telsa, you say, "But I wanted yellow pinstripes and this one you gave me a Tesla that has white pinstripes". I'm just sayin'. That's fine, you have a valid question/complaint. Small businesses are almost always lumpy. You get revenue increases or you get margin increases but not generally both and not necessarily consistently. Yes, it would be nice if they explained this. My take from reading the 10Q is that the Aerospace market is higher margin typically than the Construction market. You will note that in the prior year's Q3, TAYD had 39% of revenue from Construction, and now in the latest Q3 it has 57% of its revenue from Construction. That is a nice increase, but the fraction of revenue from Aerospace has gone down by a similar percentage (although the total is rising nicely). I think that change in mix is what has affected margins, but I believe both businesses are healthy. In conclusion, I agree it would be comforting if management would address that change in margin. That is a great question for IR, do you want to call them or should I?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shrewd_curmudgeon by shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 13, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    The wireless business is trying to get away from the money-losing ALU. This is very bearish for what remains in ALU. The fiber optic systems business is going to go down the drain after this. This is very bullish for CIEN and INFN as the money losing fiber equipment segment goes down the tubes.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • For the latest quarter AGX posted revenues were $102.3 million compared to $59.5 million for the corresponding three months ended January 31, 2014.
    Analysts expected $0.36 per share. Argan reported net income of $6.0 million, or $0.40 per share. They beat by 11%. There are only 14.8 million shares of AGX.
    The company has enterprise value of only $170 million.
    Balance sheet is even stronger.
    With annual net income of $25 million per year, we should conservatively expect enterprise value to rise to $250 million. That would be over $40 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SPRT
1.51+0.01(+0.67%)11:38 AMEDT