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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

shuching4 30 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 52 minutes ago Member since: Oct 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 1 hour 52 minutes ago Flag

    kee
    this is the deal. ethane is found in ngls. so if we start to export ngls there will not be lots of excess ethane.
    ethane can be converted to ethylene
    this is the work that the mlp will do.
    ethylene is then converted into polyethylene or also to HDPE
    Westlake is using the melp to convert ethane into ethylene.
    The sl does not state clearly if they have bought forward gass.
    looks to me like we get 50% of the profit and run all the risk. Westlake itself has no obligation to buy our ethylene. This does not look like such a hot deal to me. You might be able to make something on the pop after market but experience suggests that these businesses are not unit holder friendly.

    Re Europe-they will be ethylene short and depending on pricing will buy feedstock or finished product from the u.s. as we could be even lower cost producers than the middle east.
    I'm now above my pay grade so not sure I have more but my gutt tells me based on what we know and what we do not know that thisi s a lot more risky than you may think.
    good luck
    sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 14 hours ago Flag

    Looked at the Sl the mlps buys their ethylene from Westlake but the wording is very strange and makes it appear as if the mlp may have to buy the gas and then Westlake processes it. Not clear. If I were to invest, I would want to know how this operates. Ethane prices will fluctuate with NGL pricing and it would seem since it is at least 50% of total cost that all or part should be supplied on long term contract. The S1 is not clear on this. It may not matter no but in two or three years from now it could be very important. good luck. sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 15 hours ago Flag

    Please note that wlkp is not a simple operation. First of all there is a 50% idr so unit holders run all the risk but get half the return. Also ethylene is not a simple liquid and requires high pressure vessels to move around. Normally ethylene is converted in to HDPE ,ldph or pvc at the site of production. It can be shipped around but it is not easy.
    finally today there is an over abundance of ethylene so that the price is low. That said, one has to check to see if Westlake has entered into any long term supply contracts or hedged the price. Ethane is probably 50 or more percent of the total cost. So if ethane goes in the wrong direction there is a problem.
    The people processing propane have not don very well. Ethane will be long for at least three or four years But that is nothing in the life of a project. What you need is wet gas rich in NGLs.
    Good luck to you. sc4

  • Thanks. I'm not concerned with start-up problems rather was told that the raw material was short but if the post above is correct then aluminium oxide is not in short supply which makes the point irrelevant. Moving up to high volume takes a bit of time but will be solved. thanks

  • Can anyone explain what exactly is used by gtat to produce sapphire? Are these material in good supply or could they be a restriction on production? tia

  • Reply to

    GTAT sapphire supply FACTS..........

    by eagle6442 Jul 20, 2014 1:45 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 21, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Can someone explain what the raw material is that gtat uses to produce the sphire material? Key is how much supply is there i.e. could their be production hold ups do to raw material constraints or is the feed product in easy supply? tia

  • Reply to

    OT/WLL

    by jkprice Jul 18, 2014 12:29 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 20, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    palestone
    If I were you, I would be very careful with Canadian oil and gas as the beat to a different tune. Among other things few if any do any hedging which is fundamental to steady and predictable cash flow. It is also not their play. If TPLM does not suite you then look at amzg which is even smaller than tplm and growing well. Also eox. The last two are reporting 2Q or just about to. Personally my preferences run to tplm or outside of the Bakken BCEI , STRG or RSPP The last is in the Permian. All are more oriented toward oil than gas and are growing quickly. They are all U.S. firms. But of course do your own DD.I like Canada but do not understand it and know that the laws there and politics are complex and different. I don't see any need to own Canadian firms drilling in the U.S. But that is just me. good luck either way. sc

  • Reply to

    OT/WLL

    by jkprice Jul 18, 2014 12:29 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 18, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    I'm not JK but will offer the following

    Memp is a well run, hi yield mlp- well worth holding. Their gp is MRD( or half owner) who just went public and is a very low cost operator who is looking very attractive. I would strongly encourage you to look at both. Most of the mlps have dispersed assets so few are especially strong in the Bakken. Look at TPLM which is a c corp and very strong with a lot of room to grow. They have two service units which should ipo as mlps or c corps late 15 or early 16. The company has moving parts so analysts do not fully understand it. production growing over 70% per year from low base. They would also be ideal pick up for wll or oas.
    Big players so harder to judge the impact.Look at 0as though as major bakken player growing less quickly i.e. 25% but good management, good technology and very interesting. do your own dd of course. best sc

  • Reply to

    raymond james reports

    by edwardkeefej Jul 16, 2014 10:01 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 17, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Stag
    with all due respect, production costs in most basins has been going down not up. Why you would say that they are rising is not clear. Drilling techs have made much progress and the main story this year is reduced drill costs not rising ones.
    Re mlps and pipelines- I would look for opportunities in gass not oil pipelines as oil assets are likely to decline more quickly than will gass. What do you do with a pipeline that has no reserves to
    carry? You need to focus a bit on natural gass carriers in my view. To be honest, I've found it difficult to identify good investments here as overall for me the producers have done better but we are at a point at which much more infrastructure is required.

  • Reply to

    Golar.

    by iconoclasticist Jul 10, 2014 9:51 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 15, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    keech
    thank you it is a very tough issue with j.f. and I have taken the reverse mode which is not to hold the mlps because I rather be with the GP. I also have lots of mlps for yield so not worried about that.
    I 'm interested that you speak of ETE because I've been struggling to understand them. I think I should be buying ete but the yield is so low that I have trouble pulling the plug. I'm told it will rise substantially but from such a low base it has a long way to go unless the stock continues to appreciate. So far I've been paralyzed as unable to sort through. Like rgnc- regency which is one of theirs but KW seems to love complexity. He has nothing which is simple. Would value your views on ete as well. tia sc

  • Reply to

    Golar.

    by iconoclasticist Jul 10, 2014 9:51 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 13, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    kee
    I really appreciate all that you said but I'm not sure why you want to buy the mlp if you already own the gp. Moreover, you probably also own sdrl so that you have a lot riding on jf. He has been good to us but too many eggs in one basket may not be wise. I'm asking if you have any concerns about over concentration? tia

  • Reply to

    Golar.

    by iconoclasticist Jul 10, 2014 9:51 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 11, 2014 10:57 PM Flag

    Kee
    thank you for sharing your information on lng carriers. It is a complex business. I can understanding doing GLNG and TGP but not sure why do GMLP. My point is you have the GP in GLNG so you get a lot of the benefit. I know the yield is a bit higher but it would seem better not to have such a high concentration in JF businesses. I say this even though I own sdrl , dssfp and will buy glng. But gMLP does not pay that high payout to seem to make it worth doing. I know we each have our own approach which makes the market but I would value your views on the subject. TIA

  • Reply to

    Bought MEMP on the drop...and RDS-B

    by rbgambler99 Jul 10, 2014 9:58 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 11, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Mark, memp is a well run mlp. I own it and added not long ago. But keep in mind that they do have an IRD which is about 25%. Not sure if they have reached that level yet and tend to think that they have not. So that this is a slight drag on their forward ability to payout and borrow.
    I mentioned yesterday that the GP for MEMP is MRD. This firm is a c corp which has an active drilling program and has gotten very strong analyst support. You might want to look at MRD as the get much of the IDR which is or will be generated. Geographically their assets are in slightly different areas. Good Luck

  • Reply to

    stock ideas?

    by keebon Jul 1, 2014 8:55 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 10, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Kee
    I've said this before but be very careful about LNG. The CEO is the highest paid in the U.S. and he and his management team got a huge bonus for getting approval to export which is what their job was. I am convinced that this guy is not unit holder friendly. He uses lots of hype but that is about it. Some hedgy friends will put up with it but I decline to be involved. Just a suggestion . Do your own dd

  • Reply to

    MEMP

    by williamlebotschy Jul 10, 2014 12:58 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 10, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    mark MRD is the gp of memp and owns half of the IDR (25% I think). MRD also looks like an interesting play and for those holding memp allows you to get back some of the idr money as well. MRD should be cash flow positive quickly and has gotten good reviews from people who should know as well as analysts. Worth a look but do your own dd.

  • Reply to

    OT: PAGP raises dividend

    by marklibera Jul 8, 2014 11:25 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 9, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    mark - I would look to add epd on weakness- they will have a big part of the export capacity ,have no idrs and are sitting on lots of cash with low payout rate. I don't trust management of LNG . Just hard to pay so much per unit even when I know they are in for more growth. silly me. best sc

  • Reply to

    ot fund screener

    by shuching4 Jul 2, 2014 9:49 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 3, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    thanks sc4

  • shuching4 by shuching4 Jul 2, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    Vinney or anyone else is there a website to screen funds in the way that etf connect works? I want to get data on Oakmark Globel I oakgx . Can anyone suggest a site to use. tia. sc4

  • Reply to

    0t FCX

    by shuching4 Jul 1, 2014 12:34 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 1, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    max
    post a second ago but does not appear to have taken. FCX made two energy buys about 2 years ago to diversify. The recently sold on land assets and made the acquisition you note. This is part of a broader trend to widen the scope of their activities from minerals to energy. Thanks for the post sc4

  • Reply to

    BDC's

    by helmetguru123 Jul 1, 2014 10:14 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 1, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Max
    FCX bought their original oil assets about two years ago. One an on land unit which was recently sold and another an off shore unit which was previously owned largely by one of their directors. Not totally clean but in all events, the step has allowed fcx to diversify assets from metals into energy as well. The acquisition you posted in only part of the larger story but still important. thanks for the post. sc4

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