THe globel demand for oil has not declined and infact is rising slightly. What happened is with the U.S. quickly increasing production you have a bit more than is needed- this will be taken in with time. Prior to then, U.S. producers will probably reduce production a bit and focus on highest value drilling i.e. pad drilling in core areas. There will be pain but not world shaking. Look for the Iran nuc results and then the Opec meeting Saudi will not provide a clear position until they know the results of the Iranian talks as Iran has the largest at present restricted production. November will and has not been fun but it is not a killer. Hang in.
Given that no drilling can take place till the spring, not sure if the delay has too much meaning. Also to the best of my understanding, the details of the agreements have not been released so not at all clear as to what happens if the deal does not complete. It is all up in the air at this time. Perhaps at the qq later this month, we
will get real news..
Any views on these twos and firms. slca is a c corp with low payout and emes an mlp with no idr and a very reasonable payout. Both have been beaten down of recent. Don't want to buy both so have been prone do do emes but if the board has views on either would be interested. tia sc4
MWE's ceo is an operating guy not a financial guy. As such , I think mark is right, he has his hands full with the expansion projects in his own company . He does not have the time or experience to deal with large acquisitions. Charley Simple is a shareholder friendly guy and works hard. He is just focused on what he does best. sc4
factoid is a hard working, honest and clear thinking guy. Sometimes he seems to feel sorry for himself in situations that are not called for. But he is normally a good read and the best place to find his stuff as you say is on sa.He has a blog there as well which gets you to his pieces. For MLP investors he is worth looking at.
Much appreciate your thoughts. I'm traveling in Asia and a bit shell shocked but thinking about this. I had some SDRL puts put to me so have to sort out what to do. The volume was not great and the price ok for a long term hold but never really liked sea transport as a sector. Time will tell and thanks again. sc4
what are your thoughts on cplp longer term? It looks like it has been beaten down a bit now.There was some talk on this before. GLNG is up but still way down over the 3 month period. Better to be moving toward recovery. The issue is the next two years. Value your thoughts or those of others. sc4
I can not see my earlier post but I'm sure that I meant to say that at present Nadl looks like the riskier deal. I agree that there are a number of variables and it would be good for the company to offer some clarity. That said I'm still thinking of averaging down a bit on the belief that that they will work it out. I can not tell what is capitulation but it looks like it should be fairly soon. thanks your analysis.
stag ,you do have guts. I agree with you on sdrl but there are too many unknowns with nadl. If I were you, I might want to wait a bit and see how it sorts out. That said, the reality is that most of their vessels are on lease and the bulk of the Russian deal is two or so years out. The point is that there seems to be lots of changes going on in the Fredricksen world and it is hard to follow them. Want to see how the russian stuff impacts on the stock. small buy maybe to bring down cost but this is not a time for big plays in that stock IMHO Good luck on what you do. sc4
remember shark and all the names appearing here. The old board was nearly unbelievable but the present board offers many opportunities as well.We have been a bit like the homeless moving from one site to another. Lets hope we can stay here for a bit. I'm off to Shanghai this evening and looking forward toward a return in a months time. May you all be well and prosper. SC4
Have gotten used to selling puts. This works best in a rising market. It works least well in a declining market. The main thing is to sell puts on stocks you are happy to own. Then sell deep in the money if you don't want to own it. i.e. say 25% below present price. This works best with high priced stocks so it does nicely with GILD ABBY 0as and others. In general I check the price of puts once a week or so and if the decline is more than 70% of what I sold them for then I am prone to buy them back. The bottom line is that I make between 70% and 85% on the puts.
This does not always work. I sold some sdlr puts which I will probably become the proud owner of and also had to buy out some Rose puts and about break even.
Overall though this has been a very profitable strategy.
During periods such as the present time though, it is sometimes better to sit on your hands. What looks good is to use this strategy with stocks you like right after a sharp decline. We can never pick a bottom but still if you buy in the money after a sharp decline you usually have protection.
For those of you willing to look out a bit check agio. this is a young biotech. Celg owns part and is not likely to buy more because management is not inclined to sell. They have excellent technology. tHe stock pop late last week so u need time to let it drift back to about 50 . good luck sc4
Mark, agree with you that we need to always keep looking . No problem and value your raising the issue but at least for now this is one I will pass on as I think it is more a way for power generators and solar equipment producers to pass on finance to small investors. I could be wrong but for now this is not for me. High growth from a small base unless followed by a high rise in stock does little for us. thanks your suggestion sc4
MARK= YOU HAVE T to look very closely at yieldco's for several reasons. First the yields tend to be very low- I'm not sure why anyone would want to own them. Second most are involved in solar or alternative energy and their income stream is supported by long term sales agreements with major power firms. The point is for a couple of years that is going to be ok. But if you look closely, the charges for solar are declining rapidly and power producers could be in big trouble and unable to honor their debts because of reduced demand for normal electricity generated by conventional means. This has already started to happen in Australia with power bought from conventional producers down substantially.
In the U.S., Hawai, Ca, Taxas could all be early problems. If you want to buy a yieldco for a couple of years probably no problem. But at these yields, why would one want to do this? I think you can do much better. The only winner are the power companies that are promoting them. Both NYLP and TERP if I'm right, have gps that are power generators. just my views. But not the best idea I've seen. sc
Thanks, did not mean to put you on the defensive. Accept your point. but sold anyway. Want to rebuy on news.Was in France last week and back to Asia at the end of the month. Unfortunately may have to return to France first but have pretty much elected not to do that. So short form China for October and then play for November/December. what about you?
bob - interesting play. I like nymt and owed it. But fail to understand why you did not merely wait for the placement and then buy at more attractive price. The stock is now well over nav and just a matter of time before they issue more shares. Interested in your reasoning? tia
thanks the explanation but I would think the question is the total value of the people who do not drop out versus the amount of extra money they have to pay on higher rates. I presume at higher rates they have to pay more on the floating rate part of the bundle. Therefore it seems quite complex. IN the end, I bought and we will see how it goes. Greetings to all from sunny Bordeaux. Will be a good harvest this year . best sc4
Yes agree with you. I guess the issue is how long you feel you can play it. If one is trading and holding for a couple quaters it will probably work. I especially agree with your comment on if you like the underlying funds they manage then this should be good. But I think one has to be a bit more careful. The BDCs and related firms are not KMI or KMR , they seem to be much more sensitive to interest rate changes. Also BDCs are a bit black box and much harder to follow the value of assets. I"m happy with NRZ although I admit I'm not totally sure I understand why they are interest rate friendly but I will buy that one for sure and have already done so. Thanks again for your always thoughtful contributions and I wish the board a happy holiday. I'm traveling on short trip and back next saturday. Be well. sc4