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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

shuching4 42 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Oct 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Buying Ideas?

    by dmbinhburg Aug 19, 2014 10:20 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 12 hours ago Flag

    bay, your question about asset allocation is an important one. I don't think that there are any firm rules. For me I try to keep at buy, no stock at more than 5% of the value of my holdings. That said, I've been lucky and a couple of my holdings had big run ups. If I like the management and don't see any really good alternative, I just disregard the rule and move on. This opens me up to possible hurt should the stock decline for some reason but generally, the appreciation has been so high that if I sell off the high I'm still ahead.
    Overall, I try to stick to the 5% rule Often I buy less say 4% but it depends on the market and my view of the stock. That said I also never buy in a full holding, rather I tend to buy in many small blocks as I watch the company.

  • Reply to

    ot mark mep

    by shuching4 Aug 13, 2014 1:15 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Aug 14, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Mark, thanks the thoughts and what you say has merit but keep in mind that mep is the grandson of a major canadian pipeline firm and that they seem to want to down load a lot of additional product. This is why I thought it interesting.
    The other one which is worth looking at is Transcanada.(TRP I think). Here they have a lot of cash in the company and they will probably want to lighten up. Credit S recently did a piece on them. They have lots of assets and it could be interesting. I normally don't like to buy canadian based companies but this one looks interesting. They also have an operating pipeline company now TCP which actually pays better but I rather be with the GP. Have paper on it if you are interested. The turth is that everyone and their brother looking for good pipeline paper now which only makes things difficult.. On certain levels, I'm thinking of just adding to my WMB and skipping it as WMB seems to have a bright future. Most of my holdings are e and p firms but that is a different issue. thanks again. best sc

  • shuching4 by shuching4 Aug 13, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Mark , have you looked at this pipeline firm. it holds interesting assets and will get more from the gp. Looks like it might be worth perusing. Would would value your views. Both of the major canadian pipeline firms have assets in the u.s. and they seem to be trying to reorganize them.tia sc

  • Reply to

    OT pipeline contagion

    by jerseyvinny2 Aug 11, 2014 9:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Aug 12, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Mark,
    I don't normally like the Canadian run firms but the two large pipelines i.e. Transcanada and Emberelle (sp) are both interesting as they have at the gp level a lot of cash.
    emberell just reduced the idr on their us holding company eep but they have a grandson firm MEP which looks very interesting to me.Have you ever looked at mep. High growth , lowish idr and lots of potential. credit suisse and jp morgan both like it to a degree.
    Transcanda is more complex. the holding firm TRP also has a lot of power generation in it. TCP offers more pure pipeline and a higher yield but is controled by TRP

    Bottom line is like NJV, more opportunities than cash and these have been complex and have not been able to totally get my mind around them. Would value your views on MEP and TRP- or others as well. TIA SC

  • Mark, you are probably right about wmc not doing another raise until it hits or exceeds listed nav. My acquisition price is weighing on me even though I believe we are green. I also like the management but the company has lots of moving pieces and is hard to follow. In all events, I guess an ipo shortly is probably not in the cards here. thanks sc

  • Reply to

    OT: WMC blowout earnings

    by marklibera Aug 7, 2014 8:49 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Aug 10, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    mark- what do you think the probability is that wmc will offer more units quickly? I'm thinking about selling wmc directly before or after devi date and waiting for them to make a new offering. My average cost is well above nav but when you deduct the shares and all it is about break even. My concern is that the stock will get beaten up again after another offering. Value your views.

  • Reply to

    HTC Contract

    by mohanedi Aug 6, 2014 11:44 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Aug 7, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    can you or someone provide the date for the sec filling of the appl agreement on sapphire. want to read it but not sure how to find it without using two or three hours looking for it. tia. sc

  • Reply to

    Troim

    by keebon Jul 28, 2014 11:01 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 30, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Bob I was concerned when I saw the release but after talking to a couple of people who know more about it than I do, it looks positive. Now if we can get through the Nordic ups and downs it would be nice. thanks sc

  • Reply to

    THE NADL AND ROSNEFT DEAL...!

    by staggman99 Jul 29, 2014 8:31 AM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 29, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    An international court ruling has no legal only moral effect. That said, I too am up marginally and could see a strategy of selling now and waiting to see what happens. Clearly it is a complex period.Keep in mind though that Russia signed a long term gass supply contract with China which is valued we think in US dollars. The unit price appears to be below selling prices in europe but still large. This contact is dependent I think on completion of new pipelines but mid term could shore up the Russian economy a bit. We just do not have enough information.

  • Reply to

    Troim

    by keebon Jul 28, 2014 11:01 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 29, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Kee that is one possible interpretation. My attention was drawn to the 3 million shares Troim bought. I wounder if he was given these shares or what the deal is. I think there is more to this announcement than we see but not sure. I'm trying to contact people who may know more.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder meeting informative, very upbeat

    by docsurick Jul 28, 2014 7:08 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 28, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    sorry but could u advise the date and place of this meeting. tia sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 28, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    Kee- history is not always a great teacher but I can tell you that I bought both PDH and then OCIP FOR THE same reasons you did . Both in the end had problems and I think the reason is that they failed to buy gass forward. OCIP even said to me that they could not do that which I thought at the time was B S. as gass producers want a firm price.
    in this case- I think GPSs including wakefiled seem to think that there is an unending demand for product in the form of mlps and that they can abuse us as they wish. The trms here are not unit holder frinedly or if they are, they are well hidden so that you can not understand them.
    Just for your reference, in my view qre sold out for the same reason.The gp had very unfriendly terms and in fact hand to forgoe their IDR to raise additional money. But in terms of attitude they never changed. The sale to BBEP I think stemmed from the fact that they realized finally that they would not be able to raise the kind of money they needed in the future. I will not complain on and on but QRE had very unfriendly terms including the right for the gp to get paid not on sales but based on the value of the assets. This was not an intensive to manage well.They also had the right at time sto take their 2% management fee in shres when the company had cash. This served as an on-going form of delusion for the unit holders. I spoke directly with the cfo about six months ago and he was shameless and failed to admit that unit holders were not getting a fair shake.
    Lets hope wakefield turns out better. I will refrain from waxing on about QRE but I have strong feelings about this one and yes I do understand the industry well enough to be difficult if not always correct.
    best
    sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 28, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    kee
    this is the deal. ethane is found in ngls. so if we start to export ngls there will not be lots of excess ethane.
    ethane can be converted to ethylene
    this is the work that the mlp will do.
    ethylene is then converted into polyethylene or also to HDPE
    Westlake is using the melp to convert ethane into ethylene.
    The sl does not state clearly if they have bought forward gass.
    looks to me like we get 50% of the profit and run all the risk. Westlake itself has no obligation to buy our ethylene. This does not look like such a hot deal to me. You might be able to make something on the pop after market but experience suggests that these businesses are not unit holder friendly.

    Re Europe-they will be ethylene short and depending on pricing will buy feedstock or finished product from the u.s. as we could be even lower cost producers than the middle east.
    I'm now above my pay grade so not sure I have more but my gutt tells me based on what we know and what we do not know that thisi s a lot more risky than you may think.
    good luck
    sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 27, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    Looked at the Sl the mlps buys their ethylene from Westlake but the wording is very strange and makes it appear as if the mlp may have to buy the gas and then Westlake processes it. Not clear. If I were to invest, I would want to know how this operates. Ethane prices will fluctuate with NGL pricing and it would seem since it is at least 50% of total cost that all or part should be supplied on long term contract. The S1 is not clear on this. It may not matter no but in two or three years from now it could be very important. good luck. sc4

  • Reply to

    O/T WLKP

    by huffdaland Jul 25, 2014 3:37 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 27, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Please note that wlkp is not a simple operation. First of all there is a 50% idr so unit holders run all the risk but get half the return. Also ethylene is not a simple liquid and requires high pressure vessels to move around. Normally ethylene is converted in to HDPE ,ldph or pvc at the site of production. It can be shipped around but it is not easy.
    finally today there is an over abundance of ethylene so that the price is low. That said, one has to check to see if Westlake has entered into any long term supply contracts or hedged the price. Ethane is probably 50 or more percent of the total cost. So if ethane goes in the wrong direction there is a problem.
    The people processing propane have not don very well. Ethane will be long for at least three or four years But that is nothing in the life of a project. What you need is wet gas rich in NGLs.
    Good luck to you. sc4

  • Thanks. I'm not concerned with start-up problems rather was told that the raw material was short but if the post above is correct then aluminium oxide is not in short supply which makes the point irrelevant. Moving up to high volume takes a bit of time but will be solved. thanks

  • Can anyone explain what exactly is used by gtat to produce sapphire? Are these material in good supply or could they be a restriction on production? tia

  • Reply to

    GTAT sapphire supply FACTS..........

    by eagle6442 Jul 20, 2014 1:45 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 21, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Can someone explain what the raw material is that gtat uses to produce the sphire material? Key is how much supply is there i.e. could their be production hold ups do to raw material constraints or is the feed product in easy supply? tia

  • Reply to

    OT/WLL

    by jkprice Jul 18, 2014 12:29 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 20, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    palestone
    If I were you, I would be very careful with Canadian oil and gas as the beat to a different tune. Among other things few if any do any hedging which is fundamental to steady and predictable cash flow. It is also not their play. If TPLM does not suite you then look at amzg which is even smaller than tplm and growing well. Also eox. The last two are reporting 2Q or just about to. Personally my preferences run to tplm or outside of the Bakken BCEI , STRG or RSPP The last is in the Permian. All are more oriented toward oil than gas and are growing quickly. They are all U.S. firms. But of course do your own DD.I like Canada but do not understand it and know that the laws there and politics are complex and different. I don't see any need to own Canadian firms drilling in the U.S. But that is just me. good luck either way. sc

  • Reply to

    OT/WLL

    by jkprice Jul 18, 2014 12:29 PM
    shuching4 shuching4 Jul 18, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    I'm not JK but will offer the following

    Memp is a well run, hi yield mlp- well worth holding. Their gp is MRD( or half owner) who just went public and is a very low cost operator who is looking very attractive. I would strongly encourage you to look at both. Most of the mlps have dispersed assets so few are especially strong in the Bakken. Look at TPLM which is a c corp and very strong with a lot of room to grow. They have two service units which should ipo as mlps or c corps late 15 or early 16. The company has moving parts so analysts do not fully understand it. production growing over 70% per year from low base. They would also be ideal pick up for wll or oas.
    Big players so harder to judge the impact.Look at 0as though as major bakken player growing less quickly i.e. 25% but good management, good technology and very interesting. do your own dd of course. best sc

LINE
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