Beaver, hope you get better soon, I think that guy thought you are rat on cocoa. Best beav, hope you got a few antibiotics like we did that one cold winter in the lodge.
The convertible is priced at $11.47 accounting for 11 million potential shares. Current shares out are 61 million, debt is about 200 million with cash of 60 million, gives a net debt of about $140-150 million which management says they will send 1/2 of Treximet receipts to pay it down. See earnings call transcript and recent filings for details.
No need to swap debt for equity here. The new 4% interest only convertible has an exercise price of $11.47, so it won't be converted now (that is for about 11 million shares on $130 million). The rest is about $200 million in debt or maybe a little more adding up the small portions, and subtract $60 million in cash, you have $140 - $150 in net debt. The $130 in convertible is not an issue currently. Current share count is 61 million. If you want to add the potential convertible then about 72 million shares diluted, but no reason to convert. Enterprise value is about $500 million if you add everything up and assuming the conversion. Depending on 2016 sales estimates we may be around 2X sales for valuation, which could be a good value here. At least we have sales (compared to some other companies with no revs) and those should grow again next year. JMO, share count increase is for future possibilities.
One thing I thought I heard was some of the formularies don't change until January (I have to check). Not sure, but maybe some are immediate (there is a report of express scripts now accepting), sounded like they are making a lot of progress on getting coverage. That is why they don't want to over-emphasize zohydro yet as it may be more gradual the way I heard it. Also, they predicted zohydro, silenor, and treximet to gain sales, but some of the older "legacy" products to lose some sales. They said they know how to grow treximet now (as Rx #'s are trending higher now) and all reps will detail zohydro, silenor, and treximet. Maybe this will help as promotion is key for Treximet. 2018 gives us 3 years with Treximet (this can rack up, also maybe a new version although not mentioned today from what I heard), Doug said they plan to use 1/2 or treximet money (revenues) to pay down debt.
The conversion to zohydro er Bead Tech "is" abuse deterrent so more payers will cover going forward (it was approved as new formulation in May). Maybe straight zohydro er was not favored because not abuse deterrent properties vs. competition?
He loses big here, he uses grandmas account, oh boy is she mad, the boy will get a paddling when she sees his bad trades on her account. Boo, stillbung
PenHead, do you have a long or short position on this one? Or just into stock voyeurism or infatuated with Pam?
Khumbu - nice to see you, I think we have several promising catalysts here, ARX-04 possible completion of trials and NDA filing in 2016, potential EU approval, FDA meeting - finally to look over everything and discuss. Anyway JMO, best to all.
Writing to yourselves again, oh boy, guess that news about getting $15 million in 4th quarter for EU approval didn't matter. Remember you said they would not get good news on this in July saying no approval until 1st quarter? ARX04 results coming soon. What if FDA changes course on US Zalviso? EU Zalviso is heading forward with ARX-04, US Zalviso will get sorted out, it isn't the only thing ACRX has going for it. Pam is great, eh?
They are hiding for now. Penhead loves Pam, he will log in to hear cc wanting to hear that voice.