Circa 10-12 years ago Warren Kanders et al acquired the corporate shell of what was once Clarus Corp. (CLRS) and along with it a couple hundred million in NOL carry forward. Clarus Corp then acquired Black Diamond, became BDE, and has these NOLs available to use. The NOLs have cash value to an acquirer.
NOL is now $167 million or about 1/2 of BDE's market cap. Most of Wall Street as well as individual investors have lost track of this "hidden" value. Now BDE is growing their revenues on top of that.
An acquisition of $15-20 per share isn't out of the question, in my opinion. Do your own DD.
Just think what would have happened if Kanders could / would have done the Under Armour deal back in 2004 or whatever it was (assuming those rumors were correct). Maybe missing out on that deal is what made BDE take a hard look at growing their apparel line.
Seems like most every person wants to be branded these days, whether it's wearing American Eagle, Hollister, UA, Nike, A&F, Ralph Lauren, Coach, etc. If BDE can make headway in this area, look out.
Buyers like the way this company is positioning itself to grow revenues.
It's becoming evident why insiders were buying.
Isn't 15 (or thereabouts) where Kanders' options to buy make him money? I don't know, I'm asking. If yes, expect to see it there within the next year, maybe before the end of this year.
PEGA was already trading at $28 yesterday before blowing out the numbers after the bell. It's not going back $30 anytime soon. It will hit $40 before it hits $30 again, if ever....unless the entire equity market melts down.
God speed sir. You will need it if you're waiting for a retrace to $30. Otherwise you may be able to pick up a few bucks if it goes down to mid 30s on profit taking.
I got the sarcasm, it was pretty clear to me.
There are some real knuckle-dragging mouth breathers around here.
Ok, I'll bite.
What's going on?
You said watch, and volume has been up, relatively speaking, for 7 days in a row. Price action is good also. Any idea why?
Excellent points, and I agree.
Just a couple of years ago this stock reached $9.50 on speculation that a deal was near. Those doing the buying to get it to that level didn't assume that kind of risk just to sell in the mid teens.
The cash on the balance sheet was admittedly higher then, but not all that much higher.
Fundamentals will ultimately rule in the long run but those haven't been fully fleshed out yet. Upside speculation should make an appearance prior to that happening.
It's good to read all opinions on this board even if they don't form a consensus. This stock is almost invisible to the public meaning the only people posting here are fairly astute individuals who have done their homework....therefore I listen to everything others have to say.
The above opinions are steeped in fundamentals which, as stated on an earlier thread, ultimately resolve share price. 5 years to reach $30? A good fundamental guess. But we all know many stocks don't trade on fundamentals, they trade on uncertainty from time to time.
Uncertainty to the upside, as in speculation of the ability to scale revenue organically or via acquisitions, will make a stock trade well above fundamental value. Utilizing the huge NOLs of this stock greatly increases available cash for acquisitions and top line growth, assuming profitable operations are achieved to leverage those NOLs. Likewise, fear of the unknown....uncertainty to the downside....crushes share price below fundamental value. Then you have the technical forces whether they be panic short covering driving the price up, margin calls driving the price down, options manipulation, you name it.
All in all, do not be surprised if we reach $30 well before a fundamental earnings multiple applied to actual operations says we should. The same goes for the downside, this stock could trade much lower that it should before it hits $30. As someone so aptly described last week, the fundamental price is merely the epicenter around which trading swings range....and you can profit handsomely if you know what that epicenter is.
Let me get this straight...you're saying this stock is going to the "low 20's" but an hour ago you said you were going to buy it at $25.
Are you really this stupid or do you just shove your dick into a light socket, flip the switch, and start typing?
No, what you predicted...if you'll look 4-5 posts down...was that the slide will continue "for the next 7 days". You posted that on April 27.
Well, it didn't slide for the next 7 days, instead the price went up and stayed there for the next 3 weeks except for the trading program meltdown on May 6 that caused the biggest single day dip in DOW history and which caused the exchanges to cancel trades made during that time.
In short, you haven't predicted jack sheet and PEGA is only below 30 because the DOW and NASDAQ have melted down over 1,000 and 300 points respectively. You already look foolish, but if you wish to continue opening your mouth and digging a deeper hole that's your call.
This is one of the better, more informative strings I've read in quite awhile...on any board.
At the end of the day, whenever that day may be of course, fundamentals resolve stock prices. In between, however, many other factors drive the price. My feeling is that right now this stock is still way off the radar and hasn't been influenced by any speculative or technical phenomena whatsoever. Instead, it's almost been trading like a bond with decisions based on net cash, discounted NOLs and "flights" in and out of safety although the meek volume over the past couple of years shows there weren't many people on those flights.
When this stock gets some mindshare I expect it to move both above and below whatever fundamental price it should garner. In short, I expect to see it trade above $10 or better and trade a little below where it is today. Mix some speculators in with the stock's miniscule float which is effectively lowered even more by Kanders' position and who knows how high the price could go short term....as in a period of several days in a row.
For the next year, I think the price will be driven much more by top line growth guidance rather than earnings and bottom line fundamentals, at least until growth has stabilized or a revenue target is missed.
Just my opinions.
Don't know when it will happen, but you can bet it will.
Sitting on $100 million in cash, no debt, but being a shell entity without an operating business was the reason the NAZ delisted it in the first place. Now that the acquisition gives it that criteria, it will happen.
My gut feeling is NASDAQ, but Kanders' Armor Holdings was listed on NYSE. We'll see.
This point was discussed a week or so ago, maybe someone can come along and give us a better time frame than I can.
I wish I could agree, but the only thing I see is that sellers are drying up as someone else observed. That's a good thing, but portends no imminent material development until we see some consistent volume.....as in 100K+ volume every day for a week or so.
I like the fact that fewer people are willing to get rid of their shares right now, probably because they recognize very little downside and lots of upside. But that can and will change if silence drags on.
Calling someone a fool....that's pretty rich considering the dumbassery of your own posts. To wit.....
I told you the PPS will be going to 26-Apr-10 04:45 pm
under $30 in 10 days. This you can take to the bank. This company will taste Chordiant's declining fortune...CHRD will be the kiss of death to this company...I say PEGA will be trying to sell itself sooner that most of you think...No pretty sight at all...
CDC's offer is CHILDish 8-Jan-10 06:05 pm
Even this company's ceo admitted in their conference call this morning that the offer in the table is too low. Chordiant will have many more offers and should end up selling north of $8.00/share by June 2010...Many pencil necks here don't know Chordiant and are just letting thier tiny fingure go wild....
So a little over 4 months ago you feel CHRD is worth $8 / share, they get bought for $5 and now you say CHRD sucks.
Brilliant analysis there, slapchop.
So the stock market is open on Saturday?
You're a real bright one, aren't you.
We should all be so fortunate to have your dumbassery available 24/7 to make our trading decisions.
How many of you shorts piled into this thing this morning by following the herd who saw the earnings miss but didn't have the time, patience...or common sense...to look beneath the headline and actually read the earnings release statement?
If this is you, I'll sum it up:
- PEGA buys CHRD and incurs non-recurring acquisition expenses that puts a temporary hit on the bottom line.
- Business conditions remain unchanged going forward, market for products is as good as ever.
- Revenue guidance raised yet again.
- You could be screwed if you shorted in the low 30's.
I would be looking at volume more than price if a deal was close at hand. Like 100k + shares per day for several days...or maybe a week.
That said, I like the price action on low volume over he past month. It means the weak hands are drying up.
Just my opinion.
50k shares yesterday, already 50k this morning. Probably doesn't mean a whole lot at least on the surface, but you never know.
Since this stock basically trades for its hard cash value, Kanders buying shares makes zero sense if his intent is to suck the company dry. In doing this, he is paying someone else a dollar so he can suck a dollar from the CLRS treasury. Net gain for him = 0.
If he wanted to line his own pockets, he could do so without paying you, me or others to do it.
Obviously the company is worth more to him alive then dead.
You can say what you want, but you won't convince me otherwise unless you can effectively dispute the above reasoning.