Price of domestic crude is the issue. It is not going anywhere and the entire capital structure is contingent upon crude being above $100.
Bank debt + $365mm of outstanding perpetual preferred, paying 10% a year, virtually guarantees the common won't realize any upside. Reality is they have 1 yr's worth of credit line to cover ops, having burned close to $200mm in cash flow last year if the lenders have an opportunity to limit access to those lines, they'll act on it. Frankly, this is probably why the company raised equity last year versus drawing on the lines but should they be forced to raise more equity, it's probably all over.
although the filing says 12.2%, on a diluted basis, it's 9.5% but very positive imo. fyi, in Cove's portfolio, this is now a top ten position. they have $550mm AUM.
yes, which i find totally interesting as they rode this thing all the way down, then rightly trimmed. that they bot back in is quite bullish and shows conviction. Public float 13.9mm shares.
13Fs are all in. in addition to these two, there were a number of smaller investors taking positions. We will not see who bot what after the earnings sell off but yes, I think it's all well flushed.
Wellington doubled their stake. Heartland bot back their 1mm shares that were sold last year.
US TMA biz was $250mm in 2009 and $500mm in 2011 any guesses on market opportunity now? TMAs are one of the most effective solutions out there for carriers to boost coverage and with Powerwave out of the picture, there's limited competition. So, yeah, recognition within the industry is material.
totally agree re: Northland. that was all CYA. Lattimore is a nice guy but he throws softballs and is riding solo. i'm sure they made some frenemies who bot in at 3+. that he hasn't dropped coverage, i guess, is positive. also agree re: DAS. Re: short interest: i am pretty convinced that was all index related. We had two days last week where a ton of small short condition trades went through and to me suggests the real short interest was that 250k. so in effect, there really wasn't meaningful short interest not related to indexing. i'm still shocked we didn't see a 13G after all of that volume which suggests it was Cove Street who snatched it up. since they've already filed a 13G, they don't have to update for a year I think.
we've only had one full quarter of performance from the newco. it will take 2 more quarters. i've added here. 70 cents/share in cash, rev growth 20%, breakeven operating ex-one time charges + excellent products is a quite compelling risk reward. at a buck a share, they're trading at about half TTM sales. it's just stupid cheap. on the other hand, Gilbert can't manage the share price and one of the biggest obstacles is the B shares. that issue isn't Gilbert's to resolve directly. yes, he could pressure the Trust to convert, take the tax hit and remove the issue from the table and maybe he is doing that? I don't know. I think investors will be quite impressed with UDIT sales inventory already shows at least $10mm for this Q. snag a couple kentrox contracts on that and growth with accelerate.
Are doing just fine and have delivered on almost everything they've said they would over the last 3 years. The DAS business is cranking up. Kentrox and site management will pick up as it's a great product with a strong customer list. Ethernet and outside cabinets are tracking the overall industry. Are there issues? Sure, but a large portion of their annual cash comp comes from meeting or exceeding revenue targets. Gilbert, I think, has $200mm set for FY15. Obviously, that's out the window, but the notion that their comp isn't tied to performance is silly. It is. The stock is way oversold and anyone contemplating a short here is just stupid.
given there is already $10mm in UDIT product alone in inventory, sequential growth not a problem. if active DAS accelerates, hitting 150mm top line for FY15 is totally achievable. and, btw, an annual run rate of 160 or 170 by 3Q15 not out of the question either. analysts are very focused on DAS across the board. check out the COMM transcript. btw, COMM's active DAS product ION-E isn't even carrier approved and probably won't be until next year. UDIT is already approved w/ T and VZ and offers scalability via hot swap so customers can tailor systems much more easily. The other thing I'd suggest is take a look at the M&A in DAS over the last 3 years: Mobile Access, Axell Wireless, Zinwave Ltd. all acquired. Axell was bot for over 3x sales six months ago.
where did you get $8.2mm in DAS for prior quarter? CSI (now IBW) did $11mm last quarter so ~27% sequential growth. Westell could have done all of the $13.7mm this quarter with Kentrox adding nothing, right? I really think the weakness here is Kentrox, not DAS or ethernet. DAS is growing very nicely across the spectrum. Company has $0.80/share in cash. At .55x TTM revenue + no debt, it is dirt cheap.
i think most of that short interest was related to indexers. when russell dropped them from the index, we saw the volume spike and short interest deline ~90%. it never was a material factor imo. there isn't any buying in part because small caps are out of favor but also because there is no catalyst. this quarter is going to be ho-hum imo but will give solid insight into what to expect from CSI as to growth rate. obviously would be good for Westell division to show solid numbers again. for Kentrox, i'm modeling 2mm in sales and about 20mm for the year.
fyi, Cove filed a second 13G yesterday afternoon restating their position; 3.65mm vs 4.5mm from earlier filing. No clue why but at least it's up 2mm shares still.