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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

silabarsturm 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 22, 2015 2:38 PM Member since: Aug 20, 2005
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  • Reply to

    11 or 7 ??? what will be ???

    by jurekk12 Feb 20, 2015 2:16 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 22, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Out of admittedly idle curiosity, just what is your own position? Have you sold short, and are hoping for a windfall? Or what?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The Shape of Things to Come

    by silabarsturm Feb 8, 2015 9:40 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 8, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    What is the current marginal cost of production, in various areas (from Reuters)?

    Marginal cost of producing one new barrel of oil
    Regions Dollars per barrel ($/bbl)
    Arctic 115-122
    Brazil Ethanol 63-69
    Central and South America 29-35
    Deepwater Offshore 54-60
    EU Biodiesel 106-113
    EU Ethanol 98-105
    Middle East Onshore 10-17
    North Sea 46-53
    Oil Sands 89-96
    Former Soviet Union Onshore 18-25
    Russia Onshore 15-21
    US Ethanol 80-87
    US Shale Oil 70-77
    WAF Offshore 38-44

    Factor in declines in current production, chaos in some producing nations, bankruptcies of some production companies which are high cost producers, deliberate slowdown of production to await higher prices by majors, and I forsee a return to the 85 dollar range. Why did I purchase BBEP? Nice, stable domestic oilfields, at bargain prices.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • silabarsturm by silabarsturm Feb 8, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    At 65 dollars a barrel, the price is too low to maintain ultra-deep offshore (Nigeria, Angola, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Arctic projects), part of the Canadian oil sands and US shale oil. 10 to 20% of world oil production is threatened; in fact, in the news today, there is concern that much of the North Sea oil reserves, about 7 billion barrels, is uneconomical at current prices and may lead to premature termination of production. Prices below 50 a barrel will accelerate the world wide halt of production.

    According to energy research and consulting firm Douglas-Westwood, the upstream industry spent $2.4 trillion to produce 12.3 million barrels per day of additional oil output in the period 1995-2005. Yet in the period from 2005 to 2010, the same level of spending actually yielded a decline of 0.2 million barrels per day.

    There is also the matter of the returns on oil production that various nations need to meet their budgets.

    Oil prices needed to meet expenditures
    OPEC Country 2012 2013
    Algeria 121 119
    Angola 81 94
    Ecuador 112 122
    Iran 123 136
    Iraq 100 116
    Kuwait 61 59
    Libya 94 111
    Nigeria 118 124
    Qatar 59 58
    Saudi Arabia 87 92
    UAE 82 90
    Venezuela 102 117

    Continued on reply post, due to length ...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Szanowny Jurek ;

    by bruce_jemcek Feb 6, 2015 10:33 AM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 6, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    I am suspecting that trying to tie his shoes may overwhelm him.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Survie or not surve

    by jurekk12 Feb 6, 2015 4:49 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 6, 2015 5:59 PM Flag

    No, please do not kill yourself over money lost during shorting. It isn't worth your life. Family and friends are important, not losses on short stock positions taken in ignorance.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by jurekk12 Feb 5, 2015 2:24 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 5, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    No. It does NOT borrow money for the distribution (not a dividend). It borrowed money last year to acquire QR Energy, and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. increased the borrowing base under Breitburn’s credit facility to $2.5 billion in connection with the transaction.

    You really should give up posting here until you understand the Partnership and how it functions. Go reread the posting about the goats; it really is not complicated.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    you guys don't know how miserable I am

    by billsimpleton Feb 5, 2015 7:14 AM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 5, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    I ran a search on your posts. Other than "Let me be the first to say.....I like to see who the largest percentage decliners for the day are and then go to that message board and just kind of laugh at all the bagholders. It's something I like to do." which is really rather cruel, all your posts lament losing money and come across like a depressed masochist. My advice: You really do need some professional help. Also, never buy any shares on which you are not prepared to lose what you put in. Since it upsets you so very much you should give it up altogether.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by jurekk12 Feb 4, 2015 4:41 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 4, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    As I wrote before, you are confusing cash on hand and cash flow. BBEP sells 26,814 barrels of oil per day, at 93.51 a barrel for all of 2015. That is just over 2.5 million dollars coming in, every day. Out of this, it pays salaries, maintenance, and distributions. Do you understand a hedge is not some big bushes like Polish farmers use to keep goats out of the cabbages? It is a financial instrument, to lock in a price. The Partnership has substantial hedges in place for the next several years. It is not going bankrupt, even if oil goes to 25 dollars a barrel this year. It does not have to pay off the "bond" this year. The "bond" you keep referencing is a credit facility. It is extended to BBEP and considered secured by the 323 million barrels of oil that is the Partnership's major asset.
    It is possible that in April the credit facility may be adjusted, and reduced. That is why the Partnership cut the distribution by half, to retain more cash against that possibility. There is no way the entire credit facility will be due and payable this year. Or next year. If the Partnership has to pay down more, so what? The net assets of the Partnership rise. I bought shares because I am not concerned about the price of oil this year or next. I expect in a few years it will be much higher.
    Let me put this another way. You own two goats, and paid 100 zloty (Polish money, folks) for each. You have a contract to sell their milk to the school in your village at a fixed price at 30 zloty a year. You get a line of credit, for 100 zloty secured against your two goats, and buy a third goat. You sell its milk, too. Now, milk goes down to about 15 zloty a year, but you have locked in your price for this year, and for much of next year too. Will milk produced still be valued at 15 zloty in three or four years? Or will the poor in the village with old goats decide to sell and eat those that don't produce much milk? Think the bank will demand its zloty?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 3, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Maybe yes, maybe no; it also fell awfully far and awfully fast. As for Goldman Sachs, well, if they had any real data or prognostication ability they could have made billions during the oil drop, from shorting corporations to selling puts. Last I saw, they didn't.

  • Reply to


    by jurekk12 Feb 2, 2015 4:24 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 2, 2015 9:27 PM Flag

    I'll take a crack at a translation: He is worried about the credit facility, which was increased to $2.5 billion on November 19, 2014, and as of December 31, 2014, that the Partnership had borrowings of approximately $2.195 billion and had approximately $26.5 million of letters of credit outstanding under its credit facility. The next semi-annual redetermination under the Partnership's credit facility is scheduled for April 2015. He believes that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to some extraordinary amount by then, even though the world situation may well preclude any raise at all, rather than the 0.25% hike they indicate in June. He believes that the cash on hand, of 3.23 million, somehow reflects the company's total assets (and which of course disregards the hedges in place on production and cash received from that production). He feels that the Partnership will somehow have to pay off the entire $2.195 billion which it will be unable to do and so be forced into some type of bankruptcy proceedings, or pay usurious interest on the balance, absorbing all the Partnership's profits, which will be diminished by the low(er) price of oil.

    Under his multiple identities, he tries to convey his conviction, generally in CAPITAL LETTERS, that this means the Partnership is going to become worthless, and he views with increasing consternation the losses imposed by his short positions. After all, the family does need the milk that the goat he pledged as collateral provides. Hence the increasing sense of desperation in the various posts he makes. He believes unscrupulous traders are pumping up the price via fraudulent information.

    Does that sum it up, Jurekk12?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Is BBEP still paying the $1 divy?

    by iwantlegos Feb 1, 2015 6:24 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 1, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    It pays per share one dollar per year, divided into 12 monthly payments. Clear now?

  • Reply to

    Is BBEP a MLP?

    by iwantlegos Feb 1, 2015 6:24 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Feb 1, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    No; it's a marijuana growing concern, that produces hashish oil from plants grown behind some hedges in a few states. There's a lot of oil out there now, so the price per ounce came down. And don't bother with taxes, just have proceeds wired to a Cayman Islands account held by a Bermuda corporation that you can set up over the internet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • silabarsturm silabarsturm Jan 29, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    A solitary poster, multiple identities, basically not familiar with standard English, believes that his multiple posts about fantasy bankruptcies and SEC investigations can sway the market and rescue his probable losses in shorting BBEP. After all, he probably cannot afford the two or three hundred shares he has shorted! He might have to sell the family goat!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where Did All These SCAMMERS come from?

    by dotcom_mon Jan 26, 2015 4:03 PM
    silabarsturm silabarsturm Jan 26, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Multiple IDs, of a few posters, trying hard to talk the stock down. The assumption is that they have shorted, and are now in a world of hurt.

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