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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

silverisgold88 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 4, 2014 9:00 AM Member since: Feb 9, 2009
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  • This article is almost a month old but I thought it would be an interesting read for fellow longs:

    Christopher F Davis
    July 05, 2014

    . . . " There is another company that I also believe is incredibly undervalued and the Street is completely discounting. I have identified Exelixis as a great takeover target for Pfizer or any other of its competitors. I think after a selloff in shares, Exelixis may on its own be one of the best opportunities for a trader to double their money this year. Why should Pfizer or any other company care about Exelixis? Well, Exelixis has been riding high all year. This multibillion dollar market capitalization company was recently just cut in half after the company’s update to its phase 3 results for Cometriq (also known as cabozantinib) as a treatment for late-stage prostate cancer.

    In a press release back in March, Exelixis announced that the independent data monitoring committee overseeing its COMET-1 phase 3 trial involving Cometriq in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer had recommended the trial proceed to its final analysis. Normally a trial proceeding is considered fantastic news as it would signify the safety, tolerability, and potentially efficacy of an experimental therapy. However, with the metastatic prostate cancer field beginning to get crowded by drugs from rivals, investors absolutely punished the stock sending it from $6.00 to just over $3.00 in a week.

    There is a fear that Cometriq doesn’t offer a superior risk of death reduction. But a 50 percent drop on this news? That’s far overblown. Twenty percent would have been understandable. Now, the stock is starting to turn the corner once more. If anyone is going to buy them out, now would be the time. Exelixis stock dipped to $3.02 but has now recovered over to $3.50. But not only is it technically reversing, it has upcoming catalysts and has other things going for it, which in my opinion make it extremely compelling.

    Part 1

  • I thought 7001ctc`s comment was worth sharing here - "I'm a 16 year survivor of castrate resistant prostrate cancer, successfully treated to date by the founder of the Prostate Cancer Research Institute, Dr. Mark Scholz. I am also the president of the network serving over 100 worldwide patients of this worst kind of PC.

    Several years ago, during the annual PCRI annual conference, attended by over 500 oncologists and patients, Dr. Scholz showed the incredible results of a ,metastatic patient with tumors throughout his body treated with Carbo(sic) for 6 months. Every one of the multiple tumors, except one tiny one, had disappeared. Dr, Scholz said "in all my experience of treating many hundreds of metastatic patients, I've never seen such a positive result".

    That is why I'm a believer in the future of Cabo."

  • • In an interview with TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein, David Miller elaborates on his view that Roche (RHHBY +1.3%) has a strong incentive to acquire Exelixis (EXEL +10.7%) in order to capture the full margin of the combination therapy cobimetinib and currently-approved Zelboraf (vemurafenib). He says that the combo regimen could reach peak sales of $1B and should be priced at a premium to Glaxo's (GSK -0.4%) inferior offering of Tafinlar and Mekinist. He believes it will establish itself as the standard of care as a first-line therapy for BRAF-mutated melanoma.
    • Earlier today, Roche announced positive results from a Phase 3 clinical trial where patients lived significantly longer when treated with the combo regimen compared to placebo.

  • Reply to

    what i think is this...

    by cocofromafrica101 Jul 30, 2014 8:41 PM
    silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Jul 30, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    I hope you are Shaun Zirnhelt, if so great article and well written, if not - you should have gave him credit for being the author.

  • silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Aug 4, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    Part 2

    Soon we will learn the final results of the COMET-1 trial and I estimate the data will show that Cometriq demonstrates superior death risk reduction relative to the standard prednisone treatment in men with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer who had progressed while using the combination of docetaxel and either Zytiga or Xtandi. If the drug shows effect and eventually had FDA approval, just how much are we talking about here? Well, Dendreon’s (NASDAQ:DNDN) Provenge could take $400 to $500 million in peak sales, which I believe Cometriq could do alone for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. What else? Don’t forget, unlike many smaller biotechs, Exelixis has FDA approval for treatments. In fact, Cometriq is already approved to treat metastatic medullary thyroid cancer by the FDA and just recently receiving EU clearance to market its therapy in Europe. For this condition, Exelixis should see revenues of $100-$200 million when sales ramp up. This is extremely attractive for a larger company that needs a revenue stream to fund its own research and development.

    But there is more. The company has a decent pipeline. Aside from thyroid cancer and prostate cancer, Cometriq is also being studied in two other phase 3 trials. These are the METEOR and CELESTIAL trials to study its effects relative to standard therapies. These trials will assess Comtriqs efficacy in hindering metastatic renal cell carcinoma and hepatocellular carcinoma patients who’ve received treatment with Nexavar. The only trouble is that competition is stiff with other companies. Thus, Exelixis data will have to be strong to gain market share. This may be why investors over reacted to the news that the COMET-1 study was continuing. In the mean time, the company has a bevy of other cooperative agreements with large players like Merck and GlaxoSmithKline that will provide the necessary cash that Exelixis requires to conduct its trials and further its research and development

  • silverisgold88 by silverisgold88 May 29, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    I figured there would be more shares traded today in anticipation of possible positive news.

  • silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Aug 4, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    processes. Part 3

    Exelixis also recently presented data for Cobimetinib in combincation with Vemurafenib to treat metastatic melanoma with a specific mutation (BRAF-600.) This is a little data heavy, but I will do my best to walk through the epidemiology. The phase 1b dose escalation study was designed to evaluate the safety and tolerability of cobimetinib in combination with vemurafenib. The dose escalation stage of the trial comprised 10 dosing cohorts of 3-6 patients and evaluated three different dosing schedules of cobimetinib in combination with twice daily administration of vemurafenib.

    After the maximum tolerated dose, that is, the dose which patients can most reasonably withstand without severe side effects was defined, two dose cohorts were expanded and additional patients with BRAF-mutated melanoma who were either BRAFi-naïve or vemurafenib-progressing patients were accrued. As of October 1st, 2013, 129 patients had been treated, comprising 66 patients who had previously progressed while receiving vemurafenib and 63 patients who were BRAFi-naïve. Of the 63 BRAFi-naïve patients, 43 (68 percent) were previously untreated and 20 (32 percent) had been treated with agents other than a BRAFi. The majority of the patients had Stage IV, M1c melanoma at the time of enrollment (vemurafenib-progressors 82 percent, BRAFi-naïve 70 percent.) The median duration of follow-up in vemurafenib-progressor and BRAFi-naïve patients was 6.3 and 12.7 months, respectively.

    The final results of the exploratory secondary endpoints of BRIM7 showed anti-tumor activity for the combination of cobimetinib and vemurafenib. In BRAFi-naïve patients (n=63), an 87% confirmed overall response rate (ORR) was achieved, including 10 percent complete responses and 78 percent partial responses. An additional 10 percent of patients achieved stable disease. The majority of tumor responses were observed within the first six weeks following initiation of treatment.

    Part 3

  • Reply to

    I like EXEL -- any new news released?

    by smithts777 Jul 24, 2014 12:07 PM
    silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Jul 24, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Look at PBYI - Puma Biotechnology. Went from $60 to $233 yesterday on cancer drug success.

  • silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Aug 4, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    Part 4

    The median progression free survival (PFS) for BRAFi-naïve patients was 13.7 months. Results for vemurafenib-progressor patients (n=66) showed a 15 percent confirmed ORR, 42 percent stable disease rate, and median PFS of 2.8 months. The median overall survival (OS) for BRAFi-naïve patients had not been reached, with a 1 year survival estimate of 83 percent. For the vemurafenib-progressor patients the median OS was 8.3 months with an estimated 1 year survival of 32 percent. Thus, the data were extremely favorable.

  • silverisgold88 silverisgold88 Aug 4, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Part 5

    In summation, the data for both Synta and Exelixis are strong. Both deserve a multi-billion dollar market cap but are trading at a significant and short term discount. Pfizer, Gilead, and its competitors will require growth. There is now (sp? no) question about that. The Street is completely discounting these companies and I think before it releases news that send stocks flying, a larger competitor that needs growth should consider stepping in."

SLW
24.85+0.33(+1.35%)Aug 28 4:03 PMEDT

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