Here is how I figured it. 197,584,334 shares outstanding times $1.21 book value per share = $239,077,044.00
Add 46,374,874 shares (dilution) to 197,584,334 = 243,959,208 shares outstanding now. Divide $239,077,044.00 by 243,959,208 = $0.9799. BTW I am long PAL and have cost averaged my shares down to 0.419.
Author: Andre Janse van Vuuren & Paul Burkhardt (Bloomberg)
Posted: Tuesday , 04 Mar 2014
Platinum stockpiles built to weather a strike at the world’s three largest producers of the metal may run out if a new round of talks to end a six-week pay strike at South African mines ends in deadlock.
Anglo American Platinum Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc were today meeting with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union after a first set of talks failed to end a stoppage over pay by more than 70,000 workers that started on Jan. 23. Producers have so far lost more than 6.6 billion rand ($613 million) in revenue because of the walkout, while wages forfeited exceed 2.9 billion rand, a joint website of the three companies showed today.
“The strikes are going on longer than planned,” Stephen Meintjes, head of research at Imara SP Reid (Pty) Ltd. in Johannesburg, said by phone. “People might have underestimated the mineworkers’ resolve.”
The AMCU’s members are striking for monthly wages to be more than doubled to 12,500 rand and rejected a mediated increased offer of as much as 9 percent, refusing to budge on their demands. South Africa’s inflation rate was 5.8 percent in January. The country accounts for more than 70 percent of production of platinum, a metal used for jewelry and catalytic converters that reduce harmful emissions from vehicles.
Oh, Ok. Maybe if you do not have any intelligent conversation to offer here, you should stick YOUR head in a pile of S#!t for all the good it does you!
IMO the way I see it, using the Key Statistics provided here, PAL is in good shape compared to gold miner GG or silver streamer SLW as examples. PAL is trading below book value per share (.52 / 1.21 versus SLW 19.58 / 9.59 ), it is trading below revenue per share (.52 / .87 versus SLW 19.58 / 2.33 & GG 20.84 / 5.78) It can easily raise operating cash through secondary offerings (has 197 million shares versus GG @ 812 million & SLW @ 357 million). Their debit to equity ratio is high but that could be lowered also through a secondary and added revenue with more ore being refined through the new shaft. Palladium is rarer than Gold or Silver and demand will exceed supply into the foreseeable future. Wall Street easily manipulates the price of Gold & Silver. It appears PAL is being accumulated today and was late Friday also, all in my opinion of course and I welcome additional pro & con comments. I am long PAL.
Why Invest in NAP?
1.Clear Growth Strategy to Increase Production & Lower Cash Costs
The LDI mine expansion offers production growth with a decreasing operating cost profile and expanding operating margins. Through the utilization of the shaft and the bulk mining methods, operations are expected to benefit from increased mining rates and decreased operating costs, transforming LDI into a low cost producer.
2.Leverage To Rising Palladium Prices
LDI is one of only two primary palladium producers in the world, offering investors exceptional exposure to the price of palladium. The outlook for palladium over the next ten years predicts a return to historically high prices, strong fabrication and investment demand, and constrained supply. NAP plans to optimize and expand its palladium operations are well timed in the commodity’s cycle.
3.Attractive PGM Investment Jurisdiction
As a rare precious metal, there are very few palladium producing regions worldwide and few known economically viable ore bodies. Russia and South Africa, which are known to be higher-risk jurisdictions, account for almost 80% of global mine palladium production. Compared to the South African miners who are increasingly faced with geopolitical and hyperinflationary cost challenges, NAP operates in a mining-friendly jurisdiction with low political risk, stable government policies, moderate cost inflation and available skilled labor.
4.Significant Development & Exploration Upside
The LDI mine property has significant exploration upside near the mine, where a number of recent discoveries can potentially increase palladium production in the future. This upside is further complemented by LDI’s excess mill capacity and established infrastructure, which will allow the Company to convert exploration success into production and cash flow on an accelerated timeline.
Thanks atw5545 for your input. I think we would all welcome a Pd price of $1,000!
It is all about the "market" price. A buyer can sometimes pick up cheap shares by placing a low "bid" price when a seller sells at "market". A seller can also sell high when a buyer buys at "market" and he has a high "ask" price. This is what creates the bid - ask spread and you should always buy with a "limit" or sell with a "stop" during pre-market or after-market trading. During normal trading hours this is usually not a problem unless the stock is attacked through "naked shorting". Hope this helps.
By Laura Clarke (WSJ)
March 5, 2014 1:29 p.m. ET
The price of palladium shot up Wednesday to a level not seen for nearly a year as fears about potential sanctions on Russia, the world's largest producer, put a spotlight on risks to supply of this precious metal.
Palladium traded on the spot market hit $779.50 per ounce, its highest level since early April 2013, as the U.S. government said it is prepared to enact financial sanctions on Russia if Moscow didn't begin pulling troops from Ukraine's Crimea region.
Russia accounts for over 40% of global mined supply of palladium, which is primarily used to make autocatalysts for cars and trucks and is also used by electronics and jewelry makers. Any trade embargo against Russia could hinder access to the metal.
At the same time, strikes have disrupted output in South Africa, which as the next top producer accounts for 30% of mine supply.
Russia's stockpiles of palladium, which it has historically sold onto the market representing another source of supply, are thought to be all but exhausted.
"If you look at everything they've produced and everything they've sold, that number is getting close to zero, so we don't think there is much lying around," said Scott Winship, portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management. The company's commodities and resources team has around $3.6 billion in assets under management. Its gold fund, managed by Mr. Winship, holds around $400 million, with around 10% of that invested in platinum-group metals.
"If sanctions are pursued this [price move] would likely be a sustainable gain and prices are likely to trend toward the $1,000 mark," said Gautam Batra, an investment strategist at Signia Wealth, which has around 2.2 billion pounds ($3.7 billion) in assets under management. Its typical balanced portfolio can have as much as 10% invested in precious metals at any time.
In South Africa, talks between platinum miners and labor unions have been suspended indefinitely with Lonmin
I think the big boys are trading this between an RSI of 70 and 30. If you notice we hit 70 twice and it promptly sold off, It actually traded lower than 30 before the two 70 peaks but we touched 30 yesterday and today we are headed back up - hopefully to 70!
This is the rest of it, sorry - long article . . .
“That union is not moving an inch, it’s stuck in one position,” Shabangu said. “My understanding is that if that happens, within the labor relations law that’s an unfair labor practice.”
Amplats and the AMCU are due to meet in a Johannesburg court on March 5 after the company asked that the union’s leaders be held in contempt of an order obliging them to prevent violence during the strike. All three affected producers earlier obtained court permits compelling the AMCU to keep to picketing rules.
An AMCU official was killed in clashes with police and two others were arrested for the attempted murder of an Amplats worker last month. A winch operator on his way to the company’s Union mine was attacked today, according to a statement by the National Union of Mineworkers.
While dissent within the AMCU has also emerged, the size of the factions hasn’t been established. The Workers Committee, an unstructured group claiming members at Impala and Amplats, said that employees weren’t unified for a strike.
“The time, it was not the right time, because we can’t have workers out while the union was in pieces,” Gaddafi Mdoda, a former AMCU member, told reporters Feb. 28 in Johannesburg.
The Workers Committee had no proof of membership and didn’t have recognition agreements with employers, AMCU President Joseph Mathunjwa said by phone.
--With assistance from Liezel Hill in Toronto. Editors: Ana Monteiro, John Viljoen
To contact the reporters on this story: Andre Janse van Vuuren in Johannesburg at email@example.com; Paul Burkhardt in Johannesburg at firstname.lastname@example.org
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at email@example.com
©2014 Bloomberg News
Here is the rest of the article . . .
Impala, the second-largest producer, can only guarantee deliveries to offshore customers until the end of March, Marketing Executive Derek Engelbrecht told reporters on Feb. 27.
The current round of talks will be “critical” in resolving the impasse, Johan Theron, a spokesman for Johannesburg-based Impala, said today by phone. “The losses could be so big for both parties that you could easily see a hardening of positions if you miss one another again.”
Anglo Platinum, the largest producer and which is known as Amplats, was able to fulfill customer orders for six to eight weeks, the company said in January. Lonmin stockpiled 42,000 ounces of unrefined metal in the year through September and also had 13,000 ounces of unsold refined platinum, it said in November.
Lonmin declined to comment on guarantees for platinum deliveries when contacted by phone. Amplats wasn’t immediately available to comment.
“We’re not that far away” from producers reaching the end of their stockpiles, Justin Froneman, a Johannesburg-based equity analyst at SBG Securities Ltd., said by phone. “That’s when you’re going to start to see a real reaction from the market.”
Amplats fell 2.1 percent to 450 rand by the close in Johannesburg. Impala gained 0.5 percent to 114.57 rand, while Lonmin dropped 1.4 percent to 297.30 pence in London.
Investors haven’t yet factored in the effect of the strike on companies’ earnings, Froneman said. “There is more positive sentiment around the companies doing what is right and sticking together,” he said, referring to the producers’ agreement to negotiate as a unit. “If someone does break rank, I think you’re going to find the dynamic changing very quickly.”
The AMCU hasn’t moved during talks “as per the spirit of negotiations,” Mines Minister Susan Shabangu said yesterday at a mining conference in Toronto.
“That union is not moving an inch, it’s stuck in one position,” Shabangu
Jan. 2nd 2013 PAL had a volume of 5,180,500 shares traded and closed at $1.53. The previous day of trading it closed at $1.30 with 2,461,800 shares traded. Hopefully we will have similar action on 1-2-2014.
King of the Tulsa oil patch, oil and gas exploration and production independent Kaiser-Francis Oil Company buys, sells, and develops oil and gas properties, primarily in Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The company teamed up with fellow Tulsa-based energy firm SemGas LP to help build the Wyckoff Gas Storage facility (5.1 billion cu. ft. of working gas storage) in Steuben County, New York. Tulsa billionaire George Kaiser owns and manages Kaiser-Francis Oil through GBK Corporation.
Up almost 16 % on 3 times volume tells me a big player is accumulating IMO. This could get very interesting over the next two weeks & into the new year.
Go to Earnings Whispers web site and search PAL. It shows "Expected Annual Revenue: 3,958.8% "
It must be a typo.
Lonmin LMI.LN -2.39% PLC saying Wednesday the positions of the different parties were too far apart for mediation. Workers at the country's largest platinum mines have been on strike since Jan. 23 demanding higher salaries.
Palladium demand remains robust. U.S. auto sales have climbed back to precrisis levels, while China said Wednesday it is again targeting economic growth of 7.5%.
"As the market gets tighter, people who hold the metal are unlikely to sell because prices will move higher, so that just exacerbates tightness," said Mr. Winship.
Walter de Wet, commodity analyst at Standard Bank, said while the market won't run out of either platinum or palladium soon, "the market is increasingly wondering from where supply will come. It is now a question of price, i.e. at what price the holders of aboveground inventory of platinum and palladium would be willing to part with inventory."
Even so, some think Wednesday's price move may run out of steam, at least for now.
"This push might take a breather, but then it will go again I think," said Mr. Winship. "The South African situation to us seems like it could continue for a number of weeks still. It is a market which is tight, industrial demand is strong and quite frankly miners are battling to deliver."
Investopedia explains 'Full Ratchet'
Full-ratchet anti-dilution protection allows an investor to have his or her percentage ownership remain the same as the initial investment.
For example, an investor who paid $2 per share for a 10% stake would get more shares in order to maintain that stake if a subsequent round of financing were to come through at $1 per share. The early round investor would have the right to convert his shares at the $1 price, thereby doubling his number of shares.
23,187,437 shares for Polar Securities and 23,187,437 shares for North Pole Capital Master Fund equals 46,374,874 shares divided into $4,500,000.00 equals $.097 per share.
Sorry everyone, Looks like I "jumped the gun" - I got it from InvestorsHub. After further investigation it looks like the figures came from an older Schedule 13D. You are right, it is 9.8% as per the Investor Presentation Jan. 2014.