That is true and what bell says is right too but IMO I think we can get a higher price to sell at. I`ve traded PAL once for 100% profit and I feel I can do it again. My cost average is 0.43 this time, lower than last and with the volatility here & palladium`s current situation; 0.86 is certainly achievable in the near term. This is a great stock to trade but risky to invest in. That said, I do wish the investors here success.
Lonmin LMI.LN -2.39% PLC saying Wednesday the positions of the different parties were too far apart for mediation. Workers at the country's largest platinum mines have been on strike since Jan. 23 demanding higher salaries.
Palladium demand remains robust. U.S. auto sales have climbed back to precrisis levels, while China said Wednesday it is again targeting economic growth of 7.5%.
"As the market gets tighter, people who hold the metal are unlikely to sell because prices will move higher, so that just exacerbates tightness," said Mr. Winship.
Walter de Wet, commodity analyst at Standard Bank, said while the market won't run out of either platinum or palladium soon, "the market is increasingly wondering from where supply will come. It is now a question of price, i.e. at what price the holders of aboveground inventory of platinum and palladium would be willing to part with inventory."
Even so, some think Wednesday's price move may run out of steam, at least for now.
"This push might take a breather, but then it will go again I think," said Mr. Winship. "The South African situation to us seems like it could continue for a number of weeks still. It is a market which is tight, industrial demand is strong and quite frankly miners are battling to deliver."
By Laura Clarke (WSJ)
March 5, 2014 1:29 p.m. ET
The price of palladium shot up Wednesday to a level not seen for nearly a year as fears about potential sanctions on Russia, the world's largest producer, put a spotlight on risks to supply of this precious metal.
Palladium traded on the spot market hit $779.50 per ounce, its highest level since early April 2013, as the U.S. government said it is prepared to enact financial sanctions on Russia if Moscow didn't begin pulling troops from Ukraine's Crimea region.
Russia accounts for over 40% of global mined supply of palladium, which is primarily used to make autocatalysts for cars and trucks and is also used by electronics and jewelry makers. Any trade embargo against Russia could hinder access to the metal.
At the same time, strikes have disrupted output in South Africa, which as the next top producer accounts for 30% of mine supply.
Russia's stockpiles of palladium, which it has historically sold onto the market representing another source of supply, are thought to be all but exhausted.
"If you look at everything they've produced and everything they've sold, that number is getting close to zero, so we don't think there is much lying around," said Scott Winship, portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management. The company's commodities and resources team has around $3.6 billion in assets under management. Its gold fund, managed by Mr. Winship, holds around $400 million, with around 10% of that invested in platinum-group metals.
"If sanctions are pursued this [price move] would likely be a sustainable gain and prices are likely to trend toward the $1,000 mark," said Gautam Batra, an investment strategist at Signia Wealth, which has around 2.2 billion pounds ($3.7 billion) in assets under management. Its typical balanced portfolio can have as much as 10% invested in precious metals at any time.
In South Africa, talks between platinum miners and labor unions have been suspended indefinitely with Lonmin
. . . Europe's energy security and indeed economic recovery at risk.
Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 40% of global grain exports, mainly wheat. Russia is also a large corn exporter and a conflict would likely lead to food and energy price inflation.
Ore deposits of palladium are rare and are mostly located in Russia and South Africa. Russian resource nationalism, as has been seen with natural gas, could lead to supply disruptions and to palladium going higher in the coming months. Some analysts believe palladium may be in deficit for most of the next decade as Russia depletes stockpiles and industrial uses and investment demand for the precious metal increase.
Wed, Mar 5 2014 11:18 GMT
by Mark O`Byrne | GoldCore Gold Bullion
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,333.50, EUR 971.94 and GBP 799.84 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,339.50, EUR 973.90 and GBP 802.87 per ounce.
Gold fell $16.30 or 1.21% yesterday to $1,335.10/oz. Silver dropped $0.24 or 1.12% at $21.19/oz.
Gold traded below its highest level in more than four months as tension between Ukraine and Russia eased leading to traders taking profits on gold.
Palladium climbed for a fifth day and jumped to an 11 month high. Palladium for June delivery rose 0.7% to $769/oz, the highest for the most active contract since August 15. Palladium has gained 5.5% during the last five days of the crisis and is up 7.4% year to date.
According to Bloomberg Industries analysts Kenneth Hoffman & Oliver Nugent, “any sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. on the export of Russian palladium group metals would create a serious supply shortage that may be difficult for industries to replace.”
This year will show the third consecutive deficit year in global palladium supply, according to a BI survey of analysts. Russia provided 44% of global palladium supply and 13.6% of platinum last year, according to Johnson Matthey.
According to BI, “a pick up in China's demand for platinum group metals may offset any sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and European Union. An increase of 26% sequentially in platinum imports by China in November suggests that domestic supplies are depleting. Russia has typically provided about 30% of China's palladium imports and China may need to increase imports from the country as labor disputes in South African mines continue to affect production.”
Tensions have eased but the crisis is far from over. Russia is the world's largest energy producer and Ukraine hosts a network of strategic pipelines that carry more than half of Russia's gas exports to the EU. So, any conflict between the two countries threatens oil and gas supplies and puts Europ
This is the rest of it, sorry - long article . . .
“That union is not moving an inch, it’s stuck in one position,” Shabangu said. “My understanding is that if that happens, within the labor relations law that’s an unfair labor practice.”
Amplats and the AMCU are due to meet in a Johannesburg court on March 5 after the company asked that the union’s leaders be held in contempt of an order obliging them to prevent violence during the strike. All three affected producers earlier obtained court permits compelling the AMCU to keep to picketing rules.
An AMCU official was killed in clashes with police and two others were arrested for the attempted murder of an Amplats worker last month. A winch operator on his way to the company’s Union mine was attacked today, according to a statement by the National Union of Mineworkers.
While dissent within the AMCU has also emerged, the size of the factions hasn’t been established. The Workers Committee, an unstructured group claiming members at Impala and Amplats, said that employees weren’t unified for a strike.
“The time, it was not the right time, because we can’t have workers out while the union was in pieces,” Gaddafi Mdoda, a former AMCU member, told reporters Feb. 28 in Johannesburg.
The Workers Committee had no proof of membership and didn’t have recognition agreements with employers, AMCU President Joseph Mathunjwa said by phone.
--With assistance from Liezel Hill in Toronto. Editors: Ana Monteiro, John Viljoen
To contact the reporters on this story: Andre Janse van Vuuren in Johannesburg at email@example.com; Paul Burkhardt in Johannesburg at firstname.lastname@example.org
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at email@example.com
©2014 Bloomberg News
Here is the rest of the article . . .
Impala, the second-largest producer, can only guarantee deliveries to offshore customers until the end of March, Marketing Executive Derek Engelbrecht told reporters on Feb. 27.
The current round of talks will be “critical” in resolving the impasse, Johan Theron, a spokesman for Johannesburg-based Impala, said today by phone. “The losses could be so big for both parties that you could easily see a hardening of positions if you miss one another again.”
Anglo Platinum, the largest producer and which is known as Amplats, was able to fulfill customer orders for six to eight weeks, the company said in January. Lonmin stockpiled 42,000 ounces of unrefined metal in the year through September and also had 13,000 ounces of unsold refined platinum, it said in November.
Lonmin declined to comment on guarantees for platinum deliveries when contacted by phone. Amplats wasn’t immediately available to comment.
“We’re not that far away” from producers reaching the end of their stockpiles, Justin Froneman, a Johannesburg-based equity analyst at SBG Securities Ltd., said by phone. “That’s when you’re going to start to see a real reaction from the market.”
Amplats fell 2.1 percent to 450 rand by the close in Johannesburg. Impala gained 0.5 percent to 114.57 rand, while Lonmin dropped 1.4 percent to 297.30 pence in London.
Investors haven’t yet factored in the effect of the strike on companies’ earnings, Froneman said. “There is more positive sentiment around the companies doing what is right and sticking together,” he said, referring to the producers’ agreement to negotiate as a unit. “If someone does break rank, I think you’re going to find the dynamic changing very quickly.”
The AMCU hasn’t moved during talks “as per the spirit of negotiations,” Mines Minister Susan Shabangu said yesterday at a mining conference in Toronto.
“That union is not moving an inch, it’s stuck in one position,” Shabangu
Author: Andre Janse van Vuuren & Paul Burkhardt (Bloomberg)
Posted: Tuesday , 04 Mar 2014
Platinum stockpiles built to weather a strike at the world’s three largest producers of the metal may run out if a new round of talks to end a six-week pay strike at South African mines ends in deadlock.
Anglo American Platinum Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc were today meeting with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union after a first set of talks failed to end a stoppage over pay by more than 70,000 workers that started on Jan. 23. Producers have so far lost more than 6.6 billion rand ($613 million) in revenue because of the walkout, while wages forfeited exceed 2.9 billion rand, a joint website of the three companies showed today.
“The strikes are going on longer than planned,” Stephen Meintjes, head of research at Imara SP Reid (Pty) Ltd. in Johannesburg, said by phone. “People might have underestimated the mineworkers’ resolve.”
The AMCU’s members are striking for monthly wages to be more than doubled to 12,500 rand and rejected a mediated increased offer of as much as 9 percent, refusing to budge on their demands. South Africa’s inflation rate was 5.8 percent in January. The country accounts for more than 70 percent of production of platinum, a metal used for jewelry and catalytic converters that reduce harmful emissions from vehicles.
So the shares can`t be borrowed to short the stock. It ties up your shares for 60 days, I set my limit at $1.05.
We might as well do what we can to limit the Traders from manipulating the price of the stock.
Oh, Ok. Maybe if you do not have any intelligent conversation to offer here, you should stick YOUR head in a pile of S#!t for all the good it does you!
I think the big boys are trading this between an RSI of 70 and 30. If you notice we hit 70 twice and it promptly sold off, It actually traded lower than 30 before the two 70 peaks but we touched 30 yesterday and today we are headed back up - hopefully to 70!
Do you think it will positive effect the share price? Thanks in advance!
Thanks atw5545 for your input. I think we would all welcome a Pd price of $1,000!
Here is how I figured it. 197,584,334 shares outstanding times $1.21 book value per share = $239,077,044.00
Add 46,374,874 shares (dilution) to 197,584,334 = 243,959,208 shares outstanding now. Divide $239,077,044.00 by 243,959,208 = $0.9799. BTW I am long PAL and have cost averaged my shares down to 0.419.
23,187,437 shares for Polar Securities and 23,187,437 shares for North Pole Capital Master Fund equals 46,374,874 shares divided into $4,500,000.00 equals $.097 per share.
Go to Earnings Whispers web site and search PAL. It shows "Expected Annual Revenue: 3,958.8% "
It must be a typo.
Sorry everyone, Looks like I "jumped the gun" - I got it from InvestorsHub. After further investigation it looks like the figures came from an older Schedule 13D. You are right, it is 9.8% as per the Investor Presentation Jan. 2014.