You're going to leave here broke pud.
Thinking you can randomly predict a random market is a sign of mysticism plaguing a conscious being's mind.
You have no super powers of prediction, and can not predict a random market.
Critical thinking, and common sense says, that if the SPY can't get below 184 then anything lower than that is out of the question for now.
Now that was quick, pud.
Like a fly landing on a turd.
You'll be broke before me, at least I have EXIT strategy, and sometimes trade the long side.
If the market is as random as you say, then it shouldn't make a difference if I use TA or not, so what difference does that make?
Using stops and hedges make the biggest difference.
Look where it's happening...right at the level of the Dec. / Jan. highs, the previous top pattern.
Always you see down moves get slowed up at the level of the previous highs, sometimes approximate and sometimes right on the line.
It's a potential reversal level. You would think the market would be dropping hard now, and that this week would have taken us lower than it did so far.
Look at the Jan. Sell off, the catalyst was bad data from China.
We now have even worse data from China, and the threat of bigger problems between US and Russia.
How's that stupid?
You only enter if there's a sign that there COULD be a huge sell off.
If the SPY can't get below 184, obviously the big sell off isn't happening just yet.
If it does get below there, it's still possible that the big one isn't happening yet, so if you see the market still dancing around up and down, get out and wait for another crack at it, with the exception of the cheap crash insurance.
That's how you avoid getting wiped out, you manage risk.
Every veteran trader and investor is aware of the 50% retrace rule.
On major moves, it happens every single time, and he's right, you just never know when.
It's not an IF, it's a WHEN question.
We've seen how incredibly manipulated this market has been.
There was a much bigger sell off a few weeks ago on some weak China data, and this weeks sell off seems a muted response to a MUCH BIGGER catalyst.
Heck, you have this catalyst combined with MORE signs of problems coming out of China. The credit markets could be facing some serious freezing, and it will impact every economy. If it happens.
Now here's something no one can argue. IF the SPY can't get below 184, it certainly won't test the March of 09 lows, it would be impossible.
So a decent strategy would be to short big IF the SPY gets below 184. Exit the position if the market is not moving furiously to the downside, because the move you're looking for in this trade doesn't involve dancing around.
Interestingly enough, they wanted this to start months ago.
What stopped Syria from escalating to WWIII?
Public opinion polls were the thing that stopped them.
Quite possibly our last hope is the spread of knowledge.
We should run ads during reality TV shows to spread the....oh, wait, nevermind.....they'll never run those ads they own the stations.
They're going to rely more on technology and smaller head counts, just like every other business they run.
Wipe some out in battle, starve the rest out.
That is unless the theories prove untrue.
They've exhausted all other profit avenues?
How about those "zero losing trading days in 2013" for the big banks? Is that not going to work anymore for them?
Does this have to do with taper and QE end this year, and why they want to keep it looking like we're in a recovery for now, until SHTF?
I see Obama and Putin starring in an old western....both tied to stakes withe fires lit at the stacked and gasoline soaked wood covering their feet and shins.