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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 18666 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    from IV....can anyone explain????

    by blankwillie 11 hours ago
    simp08801 simp08801 10 hours ago Flag

    I do not believe any of the original 10 ambulatory boys have yet gone non ambulatory

    I believe it will eventually happen, but not yet

  • simp08801 by simp08801 15 hours ago Flag

    we have a "serious group" involved here!

    so now we have the following

    1. a group of mullets

    2. a group of duncers

    3. a serious group

    what a melting pot!

  • prior to the 10/3/12 srpt P2 news, I cannot say there really was a large smoking gun that was being completely ignored by the market

    but IMO, this cycle is different

    November 23-24 is a huge smoking gun, which appears to have been completely ignored by the market so far

    (check the trade price levels AND volume since the AF article disclosing those adcom dates)

    IMO, those adcom dates ARE for bmrn and sprt (some even say it has been confirmed to be so)

    and the implications of that in terms of the srpt investment thesis are IMO monumental

    I continue to believe bmrn will find a way to conditional approval for drisa

    but there will be NO head start runway for drisa in front of etep for market share, and that is IMO huge

    given no timing delay between the two, I expect the following:

    1. there are some drisa trial parents who will believe drisa helped their kids and they will stay with drisa, but a reasonable percentage of them will go to etep

    2. most if not all etep trial parents will stay with etep

    3. most importantly, as for new parents with no kids in trials, most of them will go to etep

    I expect this because in the dmd community, there does not seem to be a general consensus that drisa "works", but there does seem to be that for etep, and in addition, the safety contrasts appear well known too

    there will be patent undercurrents here as this plays out, and if they get strong, they will all get resolved by royalty arrangements, and will not disrupt the above thesis

    I have tried, but I still cannot comprehend, how the Piper analyst issued a report a few days ago saying he was increasingly bullish on drisa commercialization prospects

    I see the opposite

  • the two shorts are trying to mark their books for tomorrow, which is the month end for july

    this is a significant contributor right now on the shenanegans

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Jul 30, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    "With market exuberant expectation on Sarepta, we remain cautious regarding regulatory decision and the efficacy of the firm lead drug Eteplirsen, indicated for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. We recommended a sell on the firm with a price objective of $10. In addition, finance can be a boring topic, so we wish to spice things up with music and humor that, in and of itself, is a highly potent medicine to strengthen our body's natural ability to fight diseases."

    Dr. Tran, July 31, 2015


  • Reply to

    So Pathetically Bad Its Actually Funny

    by greyzone513 Jul 30, 2015 8:46 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 30, 2015 8:55 AM Flag


    this is likely NOT even near the lunacy you are going to see here between now and August 25

    I have been to this kind of rodeo many many times over the years

    there actually are NO limits to what certain hedge fund analysts will do

    no limits at all

    both in terms of dissemination of ridiculous information, and in the trading

    they are banking on radio silence from srpt/fda until August 25

  • Reply to

    25k Share Block AH

    by kaplan1975 Jul 29, 2015 5:31 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 29, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

    There would not be ANY legit 25000 share AH trades in a stock like srpt at this time

    It's an orchestrated trade by a a hedge fund designed to engender fear

    The seller was the buyer

    For starters the price made no sense at all

    The stock never traded anywhere near there today

    With what we have seen in the last three trading days this short is in full whacko mode

  • Reply to

    25k Share Block AH

    by kaplan1975 Jul 29, 2015 5:31 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 29, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    I will say it again

    this is a BIG net short and you will see crazy #$%$ between now and when the fda reports back on the NDA

    that is not a casual trade

    rather, it had malice aforethought

    and the seller and the buyer are likely the same entity

  • Reply to

    Piper upgrades Bmrn on upbeat drisa outlook

    by simp08801 Jul 29, 2015 6:51 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 29, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    dear devil

    I am the Supreme Leader of the Schmarbug Cult and the Piper analyst is not in our cult, as it only relates to schmarburg

    We have a vast membership, including and limited to me and johnnykzzz

    As you know, we have begged you to join us, but thusfar you have not responded

    hope is eternal

    and I trust you understand the gigantic FLAW in the Piper analyst report this am

  • "Piper Jaffray analyst Joshua Schimmer raised his price target for BioMarin (BMRN) to $163 saying the stock's performance for the remainder of the year primarily depends on the FDA decision for drisapersen. The drug is being studied for the treatment of Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy and has an FDA action date of December 27. Schimmer remains confident in approval and is 'increasingly optimistic' for the drug's commercial outlook."

    it does not appear that the Piper analyst is a member of the srpt cult!

  • Reply to

    embdded inst short can ignore this post

    by simp08801 Jul 28, 2015 4:44 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 29, 2015 6:46 AM Flag

    every technical expert in the galaxy claimed the october 2, 2012 short position was all hedged and that this is what "hedge funds" to, they "hedge", and that there is never ever really any meaningful amount of net short position

    in my experience that theory has proved wrong most of the time

    I believe there is a large net short position here, obviously not 35% of float after you do subtract the real hedges that do exist, but large

  • because its analysts running its srpt short know the below dates backwords and forwards

    Calendar Update:

    June 25, 2015: Srpt submits complete NDA for FDA consideration

    (under applicable law, FDA has 60 calendar days to notify Srpt whether it will file or reject srpt NDA)

    August 25, 2015: deadline for FDA to notify Srpt on NDA application

    As of tomorrow, there are 28 days remaining in the 60-day cycle, of which 20 are biz/trading days

    expect trading "irregularities pending the elimination of this risk/reward event (which could come before August 25)

    this short is in deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep


  • Reply to


    by simp08801 Jun 29, 2015 6:17 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 28, 2015 9:11 AM Flag

    the main institutional short in this stock knows EXACTLY how many more trading days before the 60 days runs

    there will be continued probing of the stock to the downside by this short during this period

    that early morning trade today was not an accident

  • Reply to

    Oy Vey....Again?

    by manonthemountain77 Jul 27, 2015 9:42 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 27, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    Dear devil

    Hypothetically speaking

    If Mano is one of your board names

    You would be speaking to yourself

    Just a hypothetical, of course

  • Reply to

    Oy Vey....Again?

    by manonthemountain77 Jul 27, 2015 9:42 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 27, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    also try remembering that almost always, heavily shorted stocks, with embedded institutional short bases (which srpt has in spades), will underperform a bad market day

    if you need further explanation of this, I recommend you as our friend devil

  • simp08801 simp08801 Jul 26, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    Dear Kevin

    How dare you say a word about my schmarburg cult

    Do you have ANY idea just how radical and irrational us cultists can get?!

    You have been warned !

    Commander in chief
    Schmarburg cult

  • Reply to

    Strong in a weak tape.

    by hwsimpsonshero Jul 24, 2015 10:08 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 25, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    Dear bed pan changer

    I have read your post

    To quote a friend here is my response

    Pointless drivel ... Blah!

  • simp08801 simp08801 Jul 24, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    I would like to thank everyone for their heartfelt responses to my posting about the schmarburg opportunity

    After careful consideration of all your responses, I have raised my schmarburg price per share target from $675 to $675,000

    but this is where the good news ends

    I am so sorry to continue to inform you all that nobody, other than johnnykzzz, has currently met the criteria to become a card carrying member of my schmarburg cult

    but I do encourage each of you to keep trying

  • Reply to

    the stock is being "worked"

    by simp08801 Jul 24, 2015 10:48 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 24, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    dear md

    I declare "no fair" on your post!

    I am a mere human

    you simply cannot use the caliber of your postings as a standard against which my postings should be judged!

    I mean after all, you are an MD, skilled in the art of bed pan changing!

    how is this stock monkey supposed to compete with that ?!

  • the buyers are the sellers

    the sellers are the buyers

    sometimes, its an institutional net long buyer trying to build a long position

    other times, its an institutional net short covering

    IMO, this round is a net cover program

    with otherwise thin volume, push it down, then buy it back hopefully in larger net volume for a net cover

    rinse and repeat

    regular stuff

    now lets get back to talking about the fact that we are schmarburg stock

31.92+0.16(+0.50%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT