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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 241 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • simp08801 simp08801 7 hours ago Flag

    RU

    you are stating the obvious

    the FDA has been less than thrilled with the N=12 no matter what lipstick is used

    the conversion to a MITT n=10 just made it worse with the FDA

    there is lotsa noise from both sides, but of the few things that seem clear, the n=12 was always a problem no what was said by either side to suggest otherwise

    2015 should tell the tale, one way or another

    the company's repeated delays and not living to the exact letter of the prior FDA guidance was the perfect set up for the 2014 wash out

    frankly, the company'd delays literally washed away much of the confusion caused by the FDA, and once the FDA figured this out, it went on the offensive this fall

    as they say, the best defense is a good offense

    even in the regulatory process

    the company literally handed the FDA the ball when it tried to change all its own timelines but somehow the FDA was supposed to stick to its timelines

    the FDA got smart and took the ball and ran with it

    now its all on the company, and the FDA is just patiently waiting for the company to actually finally honor its promises to the FDA

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 19, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    grey

    by the time we would know if the drug is a bust, the company will have burned another $75 to $100 million

    worse yet, I have been in two investments that traded below cash value on failed technology

    13 could become 6 on failed 166 and data reread bust

    unfortunately, I wish I saw it otherwise

    I am not expecting, but I believe the wrong data could result in it

  • 3.48

    wait, we made it already!

    I knew I was right

    my allocation such price is as follows

    1. maptuit: .0001

    2. dr. first .0001

    3. escrip: .0000000000000000000001

    4. DLPeepee: .00000000001

    5. BYOB (or is it D?): .0000000001

    email: all the rest

    did I miss anything?

  • It was IMO highly unlikely there would be any news this week, but it was not impossible

    but after today, we surely graduate into impossible from now to year end

    the stock found its balance in the 13s

    if you are a long term investor, 2015 may finally be the year where you will find out if srpt will make it, or not

    personally, I think it makes it with a very very bumpy road, where things could get even worse before they get better

    168 wk data and dyst reread are so key

    if they are at least decent, even the fda will eventually settle on a path

    if they aint good, look out way way way way way below

    2015

  • Reply to

    where is devil?

    by simp08801 Dec 18, 2014 8:28 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    devil

    do not forsake me

    I could be your only true friend here

    I consider you my only true friend, since star threw me under the bus

    piney does not count, cuz she is more than a friend

    I was friends with johnny87778 until his dog bit me

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Dec 18, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    why does he always disappear when certain others do?

    devil, I am here to help you overcome your demons

  • Reply to

    From christine today, "Please tell the board

    by thigrlsrk Dec 16, 2014 4:19 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 17, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    assuming this is literally accurate, this is spectacular news for the entire dmd community, and also for long-term srpt investors

    but for now, I am certain that a large percentage of the srpt stock sellers actually already believe this to be true

    but they also believe the company will NOT be issuing any scientific evidence to validate this believe any time soon, especially not be 12/31/14

    again, the stock is detached from the company for now

    fully detached

    its a year-end book marking vehicle for large institutional investors, long and short, and the clear bent is long exit and short topping off into book marking

    I am certain the srpt long institutional base has taken a gigantic whack

    the BioMarin/RNA deal has proven to be a quadruple negative in perception, for now

  • Reply to

    For 3 years he sat on his

    by starfe11 Dec 17, 2014 7:17 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 17, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    the issues may be bigger and deeper

    the company had board members who were willing to make open stock market purchases in the $30s

    Now, there has not been a single insider buy, even all the way down to the $12s

    What is the difference now vs. then?

    IMO, its all about confidence in BOD members regarding the issue of whether the CEO is properly reading the FDA signals

    previously, I suspect the BOD members assumed what they heard back from the CEO on the FDA vibe was essentially accurate

    Now, I suspect they wonder whether he is capable of accurately reading the FDA signals he is receiving

    supporting a CEO as a BOD member should never be confused with spending your own money on the stock

    THEY ARE VERY VERY VERY DIFFERENT

    regarding BOD wallets, I believe the CEO has lost the confidence of BOD members

    this does not mean the FDA process will not ultimately result in some sort of drug approval

    but I do think it means that pre FDA approval, the BOD members are no longer blind believers of what the CEO says when they decide to invest their own money in srpt stock

  • Reply to

    From christine today, "Please tell the board

    by thigrlsrk Dec 16, 2014 4:19 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 16, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    gri

    none this matters as to stock trading from now til 12/31

    the trading is DETACHED from the company

    it will matter max mucho and a ton, when reality returns after 12/31

    the stock is "trading vehicle mode" and what the company does is 100% irrelevant to the trading right now

    take the stock price and subtract the cash

    ask yourself if intelligent investors are trading in the "company"

    they are not

    the trading is in the stock vehicle, ONLY, from now til 12/31

    institutional shorts can prepare to mark their year end books with 100% comfort of zero surprises

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 16, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    congratulations!

    you just perfectly defined every biotech start up investment I have ever been in

    you should start your own dictionary!

  • Reply to

    Longs very quiet today.

    by devilsyankeesfan Dec 15, 2014 3:02 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 15, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    dear devil

    I cannot make any noise because I am chewing on a piece of leather

    which chewing I expect to be doing from now til the close on 12/31/14

    I am available to communicate via morris code, or carrier pigeon

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 15, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    TIMO

    tax loss selling can occur until the last trade of 2014

    but obviously we can speculate on this with more specificity

    Srpt will be a presenter at the annual JPM health conference in mid January

    some srpt longs (with tax loss sell needs) may think that if srpt has anything material to disclose in January, that it will target that event

    thus, they can take the date of the srpt presentation at JMP, and then count back 30 days

    thus, they could sell up til that date, and then buy back before the conference

    its just a theory, one of many

    the "friday" I was referring to was this friday

    all speculation in absence of facts

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 15, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    dear devil

    congratulations on your "13s" call

    and yes, us longs, are IMO in a mega "no win" situation for the remainder of 2014

    what happens in 2015 will be most interesting, either way

    but for 2014, IMO, the current srpt institutional shorts can feel very very comfortable that they will be marking their srpt short at year-end with zero risk of surprise

    tax loss selling can run right to Friday

    some srpt longs will count the days til the JPM event in mid January, and they will tax loss sell srpt until they hit the 30 day limit

    personally, I think it an entirely reasonable assumption that if srpt has any material news available for release in January, that it will time it to be at or near the annual JPM event

    IMO, once we clear Friday, the shorts are home free til the JPM event, at the soonest

    and one request

    given your track record, pleez do not predict any more 2014 price drops, as they all seem to come true!

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Dec 13, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    lets work backwards

    Wednesday, 12/31: super safe to assume no srpt news
    Tuesday, 12/30: quite safe to assume no srpt news
    Monday, 12/29: quite safe to assume no srpt news

    Wednesday, 12/24: super safe to assume no srpt news
    Tuesday, 12/23: quite safe to assume no srpt news
    Monday, 12/22: quite safe to assume no srpt news

    Is it reasonable to assume that during these two "lights out holiday periods", the people who are conducting the review of the dystrophin data and/or 6 min walk data will be finalizing and delivering such data to srpt?

    and remember, once srpt gets such data, it will take more than 5 minutes for the srpt folks to conduct their own review/spin on it, wrote the press release, and issue same

    again, IMO, for numerous reasons relating to both the the parties reviewing the data and to the srpt folks, the last two weeks of December are certain silence from srpt

    so that leaves this coming week

    Monday, 12/15 thru Friday, 12/19

    IMO, it remains possible that srpt could issue some type of pr during this period, but I personally highly doubt it

    once the calendar clears 12/15, I think the srpt iinstitutional shorts can quite safely safely salivate over the year-end marking of their srpt shorts

    what happens is 2015 is wide open

    but as for 2014 year-end, I suspect that for us longs, we are stuck on the "she luvs me not" petal

  • Zero lifelines from Srpt through 12/31/14

    Everybody knows the list of impending company corporate events and clinical data points

    They ARE all coming at some point

    But IMO,it would be unreasonable to assume that any of them will come between now and 2014 year-end

    Thus, IMO, any material or even moderate rebound in the stock price by 2014 year-end seems unlikely

    The stock was/in a great tax loss sale candidate (look at the 2014 chart and remember the price of the last cash raise)

  • Reply to

    CG don't hire a cso

    by starfe11 Dec 12, 2014 9:50 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 12, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    star

    the situation with the CSO is a negative from any direction you look at it

    if the CEO is doing his job and has produced several qualified candidates over the last year, then the assumption is that each of those candidates took an advantaged look under the hood, and passed

    if the assumption is that he is not seriously looking for a CSO, that is also a negative, for different reasons

    there is no positive spin on the failure of the company to attract and hire a competent CSO

    especially when the FDA situation seems to scream that the company needs a new, friendly face in that process

  • Reply to

    Watch Out....

    by mjrruby2000000 Dec 11, 2014 5:22 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 12, 2014 7:53 AM Flag

    rico

    I continue to believe there are no 2014 year-ending life lines

    the stock was a perfect tax loss sell candidate

    just look at the annual chart

    the iniitated rumors are that the company has bad dyst recount and 168 data

    that is a comedy as the company does not even have any of the data yet

    I suspect the spike the other day was off a counter momo rumor htat 168 data was coming

    that rumor was quickly squashed when the cep again stated earlier this week that 168 was a Q1 item

    again, this stock is a great tax loss candidate for many many investors who made money elsewhere this year in the bull market while srpt languished for the last 6 months

  • Zixcorp secretary has not yet figured out how to distinguish them from one and other on the election ballot

    on a more positive note, the process of replacing spurr with our friend nekkid is racing along to fruition

  • Reply to

    Watch Out....

    by mjrruby2000000 Dec 11, 2014 5:22 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 11, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    dear johnnykzzz

    its is during these times of abject srpt confusion and terror that I appreciate most, your art formish usage of the letter "z"

    it is comforting

    and for that, I thank you

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 11, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    boy am I glad you are back

    I have been defending your honor in your absence

SRPT
13.21-0.59(-4.28%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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