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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 248 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 50 minutes ago Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • holy cowsky a motley article that makes sense!

    I too believe BioM decision to buy RNA was at least in part founded on the bet that Srpt management would continue to bungle, causing even more delays, and giving Drisa first mover advantage

    that basis appears shot now

    if the line of reasoning in the new motley article becomes main stream, look out above on srpt

  • Reply to

    All the price guessing....

    by jrrt1 May 27, 2015 7:30 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 27, 2015 8:25 AM Flag

    not me

    I am holding out for $400,000

  • Reply to

    this is my first post in the history of history

    by stareynight May 26, 2015 12:53 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 27, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    system:

    FWIW

    if you call IR and ask what it means, you will now be told "BY June 30"

  • Reply to

    this is my first post in the history of history

    by stareynight May 26, 2015 12:53 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 26, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    dr m

    I think it was intentional

    the prior CEO had public comments that could reasonably be interpreted to mean after june 30

    I think the current intention is now BY june 30, hence the language change

    doing all possible to preserve the dual review is key and BY june 30 guarantees that dual review in my view

    better yet, I now believe that if you called IR and said "what does "mid year" mean, you would be told "by end of Q2"

    ...

    I consider this another important point in the derisk analysis

  • and then Srpt's dmd program will be worth what two Bmrn analysts think the Bmrn dmd program is currently worth

    it all makes perfect sense as long as you do not think about it, at all

    me, np and starey are having lunch today we will think about it for you

  • yes folks, it may have taken many thousands of years, but we finally have gone from eight, to nine, wunders of the world ...

    and that wunder is as follows

    analysts who rate Bmrn have gotten quite granular lately, disclosing what percentage of their overall Bmrn valuation they attribute to drisaperson

    when you compare that $FOUR BILLION dmd valuation for Bmrn, to Srpt's $ONE BILLION total valuation, you know you are in the presence of cosmic brilliance to which there can be no rational earthly explanation

    its the ninth wunder

  • Reply to

    Etep vs. Drisa

    by stareynight May 21, 2015 3:57 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    Johnny87778

    This is actually the totality of my gsk theory

    At the time gsk walked on rna it appeared that step had very strong efficacy (stronger than we now know it has)

    Couple that with safety and it seems to me gsk walked regardless of whether it thought it could get dris approved over worries that it had a drug nobody would use if approved

  • Reply to

    Key Opinion Leaders

    by speedbll May 21, 2015 6:44 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    dear speed

    are you trying to make me cry?

    I am emotionally delicate right now

    please stop

    PS - if you clear your head of all cult like thoughts (Bud may be able to help with this), you may see certain FDA signals regarding how this may play out, and assume the FDA is aware of everything you post in the sprt plus column and negative in the BioM column

    also, write the word "objectivity" down on 8.5x14" yellow legal pad, both sides, all 100 pages, in approximate size 6 font, and I promise you that you will have a tired hand

  • worth a listen

    AH likely relates to that piece

    talks about how sprt "caught up" to BioM in the race

  • Reply to

    Etep vs. Drisa

    by stareynight May 21, 2015 3:57 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    jrrt

    if the decision were mine, I would approve etep on the safety profile alone, get the drug out there and let the clock start ticking as fast as possible across the various cohorts, as I believe it will take around 10 years to really "know" of the drug "works"

    5 year olds need to take the drug, and 10 years later, we will actually "know"

    so I think the drug should be approved, but I hear the noise in most of the data presented by both companies

    when you couple that noise with the reality of the fda process, you should (if you are objective) realize that the drug is not good enough to be a no brainer

    now if you have a drug that targets a malady where you have mathematicians drawing maps showing how the malady will overtake the planet in 5 minutes absent a (any) available drug being tried, then you get a different answer

    such is not the case here

    the GSK decision is NOT dispositive of anything, in reality

    it could have been a pure money decision

    sorry to disappoint the zealots, but GSK could have actually walked away from drisa even if it thought it might work, if the money was not right

    companies do make decisions on health matters for money every day ... I direct you to the tobacco companies if you need a reference on that

    to assume that drisa is a sure shot failure is fool hardy

    its a race

    and the great news for srpt investors is that the race just got tied

    but the idea that etep is panacea and drisa is muratic acid is a detachment from reality

    in other words, its the srpt message board!

  • Reply to

    Etep vs. Drisa

    by stareynight May 21, 2015 3:57 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    I cannot swear to all you said being true

    But I will stipulate to it, in entirety

    Next

    BioMarin has a strong history of taking orphan drugs through the FDA process

    BioMarin has had several FDA meetings relating to drisa since its purchase of RNA

    BioMarin has, on the actual schedule it outlined, successfully submitted a drisa NDA to the FDA for its consideration as to filing

    the FDA clearly required Srpt to travel before even permitting Srpt to even submit its etep NDA to the FDA for its consideration as to filing, and it would be very reasonable to assume that BioMarin was held to the same FDA standards regarding its submission

    I assume you will stipulate to all of this

    Next

    a few (3) questions

    do you think you have access to info on drisa that the FDA does not have access to?

    do you think that if the FDA was certain that drisa was a non starter that it would have permitted BioMarin to get as far as it has gotten?

    are you another dumb doctor?

  • Reply to

    Up 1% after hour Thu

    by glpreas May 21, 2015 4:23 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    in the real world, its called an out of order trade

    I admit, there are no out of order trades in Oz

  • Reply to

    Etep vs. Drisa

    by stareynight May 21, 2015 3:57 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    hw

    the toxicity of drisa was never quite as bad as suggested, and the BioMarin folks are not galactic imbeciles

    in addition

    the efficacy of etep is not quite as good as suggested

    etep does not knock out drisa in the first round

    we gotta fight on our hands

    and it could be a tie in the eyes of the ring ref (fda)

    in other words, two winners

    a tie works for us

  • Reply to

    jrrt

    by simp08801 May 21, 2015 10:35 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    dear dumb md

    I refuse to answer this question

    it is so utterly boring that I cannot bare to even think about it

    I will answer any questions you may about coyote urine, which is a fascinating topic in comparison to short interest

  • Reply to

    RETEST OF THE $25TR LEVEL

    by bud_rolfs May 21, 2015 10:26 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 21, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    I am nervous that Bud is back

    because now we have to behave

    he has connections

    this really sucks

    oh wait

    I forgot

    peace love and harmony to all living things on Planet Earth

    no, I mean it

  • simp08801 by simp08801 May 21, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    stop being a dumb doctor like my good friend red and act like a normal human being, the way lawyers act

    the above statement just rung up 5,0000 bonus points on cult name calling scale

    but I digress

    my statement was that the market was fickle, no more no less

    take the 24 month chart

    draw a line across it to show all the time periods where the stock was 25+

    then, consider all known facts and reasonable expectations during those time periods

    next, compare that to current known facts and reasonable expectations

    your conclusion should be the following

    the market is fickle

    if you do not conclude this, then I fear you are a dumb doctor, like my good friend red

  • JMO ...

    given the truly binary nature of the event, and the volume in trading ...

    I AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE PRICE ACTION

    I know

    60+% bla bla bal

    go the video tape

    put your objectively thinking cap on

    review the prior trading ranges since 10/3/12

    ask yourself how $26 makes ANY real sense, if history be your guide

    if you tell yourself it makes sense, you are on the wrong side of insane

    the market is fickle

    and 26 is not big shake on the totality of the circumstances

  • I truly love the market

    so

    Srpt gets a binary green light today from the fda

    and the fact that the press release had no "riff raff" suggests to me that the meeting actually went swimmingly (like across the English Channel)

    so first up comes the rocket scientists at RBC

    and what do they do?

    they issue a glowing report that will bring tears to any long's eyes ...

    ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SEE THE PRICE TARGET OF $20!

    but hey, they increased it from $15

    note to reader: make sure you ignore the fact that that stock traded over $20 during entire AH trade session after issuance of pr

    perhaps RBC will issue a sell tomorrow!

    No, I am serious

    and in conclusion, here is my prediction

    this RBC lunacy will seem completely normal when compared to what we see from our friend at Citi

    ...

  • simp08801 simp08801 May 19, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Johnnykzzzzz!

    welcome back!

    I missed you

    we have even more in common now

    before, I was your only true friend

    now, you are my only true friend

    peace, my brutha

  • Reply to

    almost everybody is happy after that pr

    by simp08801 May 19, 2015 6:22 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 May 19, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    fox

    I take it your position is that the companies are not "tied", on the basis of your belief that drisa will never get to adcom

    yes, this is possible

    my position reflects the new reasonable "worst case scenario", that being that they both get to adcom, but now, at the same time

    BioMarin clearly does not share your view, given their purchase of RNA

    but I do believe the BioMarin folks were counting on just one more srpt delay, to create enough space between the companies to justify separate adcoms

SRPT
32.03+0.03(+0.09%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT