holy cowsky a motley article that makes sense!
I too believe BioM decision to buy RNA was at least in part founded on the bet that Srpt management would continue to bungle, causing even more delays, and giving Drisa first mover advantage
that basis appears shot now
if the line of reasoning in the new motley article becomes main stream, look out above on srpt
I think it was intentional
the prior CEO had public comments that could reasonably be interpreted to mean after june 30
I think the current intention is now BY june 30, hence the language change
doing all possible to preserve the dual review is key and BY june 30 guarantees that dual review in my view
better yet, I now believe that if you called IR and said "what does "mid year" mean, you would be told "by end of Q2"
I consider this another important point in the derisk analysis
and then Srpt's dmd program will be worth what two Bmrn analysts think the Bmrn dmd program is currently worth
it all makes perfect sense as long as you do not think about it, at all
me, np and starey are having lunch today we will think about it for you
yes folks, it may have taken many thousands of years, but we finally have gone from eight, to nine, wunders of the world ...
and that wunder is as follows
analysts who rate Bmrn have gotten quite granular lately, disclosing what percentage of their overall Bmrn valuation they attribute to drisaperson
when you compare that $FOUR BILLION dmd valuation for Bmrn, to Srpt's $ONE BILLION total valuation, you know you are in the presence of cosmic brilliance to which there can be no rational earthly explanation
its the ninth wunder
This is actually the totality of my gsk theory
At the time gsk walked on rna it appeared that step had very strong efficacy (stronger than we now know it has)
Couple that with safety and it seems to me gsk walked regardless of whether it thought it could get dris approved over worries that it had a drug nobody would use if approved
are you trying to make me cry?
I am emotionally delicate right now
PS - if you clear your head of all cult like thoughts (Bud may be able to help with this), you may see certain FDA signals regarding how this may play out, and assume the FDA is aware of everything you post in the sprt plus column and negative in the BioM column
also, write the word "objectivity" down on 8.5x14" yellow legal pad, both sides, all 100 pages, in approximate size 6 font, and I promise you that you will have a tired hand
if the decision were mine, I would approve etep on the safety profile alone, get the drug out there and let the clock start ticking as fast as possible across the various cohorts, as I believe it will take around 10 years to really "know" of the drug "works"
5 year olds need to take the drug, and 10 years later, we will actually "know"
so I think the drug should be approved, but I hear the noise in most of the data presented by both companies
when you couple that noise with the reality of the fda process, you should (if you are objective) realize that the drug is not good enough to be a no brainer
now if you have a drug that targets a malady where you have mathematicians drawing maps showing how the malady will overtake the planet in 5 minutes absent a (any) available drug being tried, then you get a different answer
such is not the case here
the GSK decision is NOT dispositive of anything, in reality
it could have been a pure money decision
sorry to disappoint the zealots, but GSK could have actually walked away from drisa even if it thought it might work, if the money was not right
companies do make decisions on health matters for money every day ... I direct you to the tobacco companies if you need a reference on that
to assume that drisa is a sure shot failure is fool hardy
its a race
and the great news for srpt investors is that the race just got tied
but the idea that etep is panacea and drisa is muratic acid is a detachment from reality
in other words, its the srpt message board!
I cannot swear to all you said being true
But I will stipulate to it, in entirety
BioMarin has a strong history of taking orphan drugs through the FDA process
BioMarin has had several FDA meetings relating to drisa since its purchase of RNA
BioMarin has, on the actual schedule it outlined, successfully submitted a drisa NDA to the FDA for its consideration as to filing
the FDA clearly required Srpt to travel before even permitting Srpt to even submit its etep NDA to the FDA for its consideration as to filing, and it would be very reasonable to assume that BioMarin was held to the same FDA standards regarding its submission
I assume you will stipulate to all of this
a few (3) questions
do you think you have access to info on drisa that the FDA does not have access to?
do you think that if the FDA was certain that drisa was a non starter that it would have permitted BioMarin to get as far as it has gotten?
are you another dumb doctor?
the toxicity of drisa was never quite as bad as suggested, and the BioMarin folks are not galactic imbeciles
the efficacy of etep is not quite as good as suggested
etep does not knock out drisa in the first round
we gotta fight on our hands
and it could be a tie in the eyes of the ring ref (fda)
in other words, two winners
a tie works for us
dear dumb md
I refuse to answer this question
it is so utterly boring that I cannot bare to even think about it
I will answer any questions you may about coyote urine, which is a fascinating topic in comparison to short interest
I am nervous that Bud is back
because now we have to behave
he has connections
this really sucks
peace love and harmony to all living things on Planet Earth
no, I mean it
stop being a dumb doctor like my good friend red and act like a normal human being, the way lawyers act
the above statement just rung up 5,0000 bonus points on cult name calling scale
but I digress
my statement was that the market was fickle, no more no less
take the 24 month chart
draw a line across it to show all the time periods where the stock was 25+
then, consider all known facts and reasonable expectations during those time periods
next, compare that to current known facts and reasonable expectations
your conclusion should be the following
the market is fickle
if you do not conclude this, then I fear you are a dumb doctor, like my good friend red
given the truly binary nature of the event, and the volume in trading ...
I AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE PRICE ACTION
60+% bla bla bal
go the video tape
put your objectively thinking cap on
review the prior trading ranges since 10/3/12
ask yourself how $26 makes ANY real sense, if history be your guide
if you tell yourself it makes sense, you are on the wrong side of insane
the market is fickle
and 26 is not big shake on the totality of the circumstances
I truly love the market
Srpt gets a binary green light today from the fda
and the fact that the press release had no "riff raff" suggests to me that the meeting actually went swimmingly (like across the English Channel)
so first up comes the rocket scientists at RBC
and what do they do?
they issue a glowing report that will bring tears to any long's eyes ...
ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SEE THE PRICE TARGET OF $20!
but hey, they increased it from $15
note to reader: make sure you ignore the fact that that stock traded over $20 during entire AH trade session after issuance of pr
perhaps RBC will issue a sell tomorrow!
No, I am serious
and in conclusion, here is my prediction
this RBC lunacy will seem completely normal when compared to what we see from our friend at Citi
I missed you
we have even more in common now
before, I was your only true friend
now, you are my only true friend
peace, my brutha
I take it your position is that the companies are not "tied", on the basis of your belief that drisa will never get to adcom
yes, this is possible
my position reflects the new reasonable "worst case scenario", that being that they both get to adcom, but now, at the same time
BioMarin clearly does not share your view, given their purchase of RNA
but I do believe the BioMarin folks were counting on just one more srpt delay, to create enough space between the companies to justify separate adcoms