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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 306 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Check out Biotech @ValueTraderS

    by bergycb Jul 16, 2014 7:03 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 16, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    easy

    your suggestion on the grant makes sense

    I really hope the company gets partnered or bought before year-end

    variables abound, IMO

    could it be a $100 stock? yes, IMO

    could it be a $20 or less stock? yes, IMO

    reasonable assumptions could be listed to support both, IMO

    CEO makes me nervous sometimes too

  • Reply to

    Let's think ALEXION

    by starfe11 Jul 16, 2014 12:00 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 16, 2014 12:09 AM Flag

    I have an even better idea for you

    "Let's think"

    ...

  • we saw our cherished 4.75 target go kaput

    and then we saw our so so 3.75 target go kaput

    but this is where the bad news ends!

    my new target is 2.75, which means we have already exceeded the target!

    NOW THAT IS MULLET POWER AT ITS FINEST!

    not even a duncer can effectively question this superlative methodology

  • Reply to

    JMO

    by simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 12:51 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 10:22 PM Flag

    also jrrt, proving out that 144 beats NH does not address the market and revenue concerns that are now floating about

    personally, I think these concerns are not mathematically sound, but that is a discussion for another moment with our friend winter

  • Reply to

    JMO

    by simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 12:51 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 10:20 PM Flag

    jrrt

    I believe the 144 wk data will prove to be informative of the 168 week data direction, just as 120 was of 144

    in the finance world, there are many new questions being raised about the company, on all public forums, relating to actual market size, revenue potential, etc.

    these are "post fda approval issues", so the market appears to be now centering its bearish questions, assuming approval

    as I have said, the market over reacts to everything, up and down

    a sale or partnership of the technology makes more sense to me now, for all longs, more than ever before

    the stock traded 27 million shares to the downside, NOT because the market understood reality, but clearly because the market did NOT understand reality

    first it thought it was a cure, and now it wonders what the size of the market even is

    IMO, you could see a $30 stock price on fda approval if the market does not get itself in order on the reality here ... delusion currently rules, and this environment is when short sellers prosper

    so further IMO, why take all the risk of non approval (and this is real risk), when you might be able to get a price offer close to what the market might price the stock at on approval, assuming the market continues to over react negatively

    IMO, the process of preparing the market for the 144 week data and the process of releasing the data suggests that the CEO, for some reason, may not be up to the task from here forward, in terms of things working well for longs in the market

    when I put all my bullish and bearish thoughts in a blender on puree, I come out saying "sell Morton, sell!"

    I see no reason to sell my stock in the 20s, but I also believe that a buyout above 30 at this point may be worth the avoidance of the risk and new and troubling market perception of things

    most important of all, I fear those who are thinking 168 week data will somehow curb the new confusion coming off the 144 week data are setting themselves up for another round of disappointment

  • Reply to

    More relevant fact (in my eyes).

    by onewaytomars2 Jul 14, 2014 3:30 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    IMO, it was one of the directional signals which suggested 144 wk data would be further complicated

    hindsight being 20/20 it now appears the market was actually grossly misinformed as to etep

    first, over reaction up

    now, over reaction down

    the drug does not have to be any of the things the market apparently thought it was, in order for it to be approved by FDA

    that the disease would start to overcome, was ALWAYS the risk here, from the start

    but the stock trades like this is some kind of shock

    and now we have every reason being given as to why stock will not rebound

    such as P3 trial boys eating into initial revenues

    well, this is the case with all P3 trials, and has been known since day 1

    but now, its a "new" problem

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Jul 15, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    an immediate buy out at a reasonable price would be the best thing for long holders here

    as should be more evident to all, the attendant risks here are significant

    pass the torch

    sooner the better for long holders

    JMO

    PS - as a part of the deal, keep the message board open for you know who and all his board names

  • that is the gift that gives for up to 4 trading days after the news

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    you said:

    "Simp08801 must be in the inner circle of parents as he suggested something about the boy who broke his leg was one of the poorer performers on this last measure. "

    are you mad because I was too tired last night?

    what about the prior 27 nights?

    you must know, from your electronic encyclopedia, that I never said that

    WHAT I SAID WAS THAT THERE WAS A RUMOR THAT HE HAD GAINED QUITE A BIT OF WEIGHT IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS

    I never said he was a poor performer

    and if you are worried that I am going to leave you for a dmd mother in the inner circle, you underestimate my adoration of you

  • Reply to

    Nutshell

    by jim_himmel Jul 11, 2014 1:02 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    jim

    you used the word "simple" in your post without my written permission or payment of the customary usage fee

    if I see you do it again, ever, I will sue your sorry #$%$

    this is both a warning and a threat

  • simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    easy

    we never learn

    we are retail!

    I sold 95% of my position on the secondary announcement, as it thought it was tooooo soon after the FDA announcement and would cap the stock (as it did and then some)

    I then bought it all back in the 27s thru 29s

    did not sell any that I bought back, contrary to popular belief (apparently star/zoooey/thig must have misread my accounts when they hacked into them!)

    I figured since nobody else took my advice why should I ?!

    I lost approximately 8 college educations on paper yesterday (probably more than all my favorite board "friends" lost on a combined basis)

    thank God/Bud I only have 2 kids

    the market ALWAYS over reacts

    it was way over reacting to what it thought the drug was

    and then when it found out and began to realize what it really is, it way over reacted the other way

    Ian on twitter had a beautiful example of this: "From week 48 to week 62 (only 24 weeks) - the treatment group declined 24 meters and it was fine - but now its negative - makes sense"

    we have had two big wins here so far

    I still think a 3rd is coming

    but this was an expensive market attitude adjustment, for the moment

  • Reply to

    Simp

    by jim_himmel Jul 10, 2014 1:39 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    dear jim

    I have read your post

    here are my responses

    1. stop picking on me

    2. why must you attack me?

    3. I feel under attack

    4. do not mess me with me, cuz I am never wrong

    5. I think I am super

    thank you for your support

  • simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    if we go back to the rumors of a month ago in the dmd community ...

    the boy who broke his ankle has allegedly gained a substantial amount of weight in the last 6 months, which has impacted his mobility

    I believe he was a negative outlier in the aggregate results

  • Reply to

    consider these questions:

    by simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 7:49 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    I agree 100%. but some of the analysts are somehow worrying that the time on drug for each kid will now potentially be a shorter duration. i think that is nuts.

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    I agree

    he is a pillar in that community

    zoooey is quite tight with them as well

  • Reply to

    Ding-a-ling Carl

    by likeafox7210 Jul 10, 2014 12:09 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 11, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    check his stock status filings

    he has since had a "family law" event that materially impacted his holdings, and possibly his cash liquidity

    its right in his filings, for quite some time now

    I saw it when his net stock status took a fairly hefty drop

  • consider these questions:

    first the assumptions:

    1. etep efficacy IN THIS TRIAL ON THESE BOYS AT THESE AGES appears to fall off during year 3 and such trend continues, moving future 6mwt results closer to natural history decline

    2. etep safety profile is and continues to be, in the world of drug development, pristine

    now the questions:

    1. since there is no current way to now know if the same or better efficacy limits would result if boys were put on drug at an earlier age, will the FDA, given the pristine safety profile, now require srpt to do a multi-year trial of younger boys before approving etep on some basis?

    2. what is the history of the FDA approving drugs that have efficacy in a specific trial that is under 5 years in duration? (you could ask the same question using 1 year and get a similar answer ...)

    3. assuming the common assumption becomes that etep has a "not forever" efficacy horizon of some sort, but is approved by the FDA, how does the "not forever" thing impact revenue projections for etep?

    IMO, the market will be tripping all over #3, and currently, I still do not understand WHY

    yesterday's analyst statements evidence quite a bit of tripping to me

  • 19,000,000 shares traded

    whether the market got the message right or wrong, the reaction to the message was violent

    and even if this stock has (had) a larger than norm retail base, that kind of volume is wayyy past retail

    I suspect confusion with abound here, at least for now

    the list of questions investors will now obsess over materially grew yesterday

    and those questions are not bullish

    the volume and money flow proves that out

    perhaps only a full on, across the board, corporate update will be required to put a realistic face on the totality of the data

    take the total distance loss over three years ... what would have happened yesterday if the loss was pro rata over three years as opposed to an apparent spike down in year 3?

    what if the average distance loss in year 2 was actually more than it was in year 3? (IT WAS)

    the union needs to be peeled

  • 06/30/2014 10,599,929 shares
    06/13/2014 11,305,930 shares

    shorts were covering while price was dropping

    um, that means longs were selling

    but none of this means anything after the last 7 trading days

    its a brave new world now

    no telling what the short interest is now

    19,000,000 shares traded today

    short interest could be 5 million, or 20 million shares

    the as of july 15 report will tell the tale

  • Reply to

    For Christ' sake Chris, Fix Your Leak

    by greyzone513 Jul 10, 2014 1:36 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jul 10, 2014 11:31 PM Flag

    I can give you several examples of this

    but they would annoy you, because most of them involve CG ...

SRPT
21.49-0.23(-1.06%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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