your suggestion on the grant makes sense
I really hope the company gets partnered or bought before year-end
variables abound, IMO
could it be a $100 stock? yes, IMO
could it be a $20 or less stock? yes, IMO
reasonable assumptions could be listed to support both, IMO
CEO makes me nervous sometimes too
we saw our cherished 4.75 target go kaput
and then we saw our so so 3.75 target go kaput
but this is where the bad news ends!
my new target is 2.75, which means we have already exceeded the target!
NOW THAT IS MULLET POWER AT ITS FINEST!
not even a duncer can effectively question this superlative methodology
also jrrt, proving out that 144 beats NH does not address the market and revenue concerns that are now floating about
personally, I think these concerns are not mathematically sound, but that is a discussion for another moment with our friend winter
I believe the 144 wk data will prove to be informative of the 168 week data direction, just as 120 was of 144
in the finance world, there are many new questions being raised about the company, on all public forums, relating to actual market size, revenue potential, etc.
these are "post fda approval issues", so the market appears to be now centering its bearish questions, assuming approval
as I have said, the market over reacts to everything, up and down
a sale or partnership of the technology makes more sense to me now, for all longs, more than ever before
the stock traded 27 million shares to the downside, NOT because the market understood reality, but clearly because the market did NOT understand reality
first it thought it was a cure, and now it wonders what the size of the market even is
IMO, you could see a $30 stock price on fda approval if the market does not get itself in order on the reality here ... delusion currently rules, and this environment is when short sellers prosper
so further IMO, why take all the risk of non approval (and this is real risk), when you might be able to get a price offer close to what the market might price the stock at on approval, assuming the market continues to over react negatively
IMO, the process of preparing the market for the 144 week data and the process of releasing the data suggests that the CEO, for some reason, may not be up to the task from here forward, in terms of things working well for longs in the market
when I put all my bullish and bearish thoughts in a blender on puree, I come out saying "sell Morton, sell!"
I see no reason to sell my stock in the 20s, but I also believe that a buyout above 30 at this point may be worth the avoidance of the risk and new and troubling market perception of things
most important of all, I fear those who are thinking 168 week data will somehow curb the new confusion coming off the 144 week data are setting themselves up for another round of disappointment
IMO, it was one of the directional signals which suggested 144 wk data would be further complicated
hindsight being 20/20 it now appears the market was actually grossly misinformed as to etep
first, over reaction up
now, over reaction down
the drug does not have to be any of the things the market apparently thought it was, in order for it to be approved by FDA
that the disease would start to overcome, was ALWAYS the risk here, from the start
but the stock trades like this is some kind of shock
and now we have every reason being given as to why stock will not rebound
such as P3 trial boys eating into initial revenues
well, this is the case with all P3 trials, and has been known since day 1
but now, its a "new" problem
an immediate buy out at a reasonable price would be the best thing for long holders here
as should be more evident to all, the attendant risks here are significant
pass the torch
sooner the better for long holders
PS - as a part of the deal, keep the message board open for you know who and all his board names
"Simp08801 must be in the inner circle of parents as he suggested something about the boy who broke his leg was one of the poorer performers on this last measure. "
are you mad because I was too tired last night?
what about the prior 27 nights?
you must know, from your electronic encyclopedia, that I never said that
WHAT I SAID WAS THAT THERE WAS A RUMOR THAT HE HAD GAINED QUITE A BIT OF WEIGHT IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS
I never said he was a poor performer
and if you are worried that I am going to leave you for a dmd mother in the inner circle, you underestimate my adoration of you
you used the word "simple" in your post without my written permission or payment of the customary usage fee
if I see you do it again, ever, I will sue your sorry #$%$
this is both a warning and a threat
we never learn
we are retail!
I sold 95% of my position on the secondary announcement, as it thought it was tooooo soon after the FDA announcement and would cap the stock (as it did and then some)
I then bought it all back in the 27s thru 29s
did not sell any that I bought back, contrary to popular belief (apparently star/zoooey/thig must have misread my accounts when they hacked into them!)
I figured since nobody else took my advice why should I ?!
I lost approximately 8 college educations on paper yesterday (probably more than all my favorite board "friends" lost on a combined basis)
thank God/Bud I only have 2 kids
the market ALWAYS over reacts
it was way over reacting to what it thought the drug was
and then when it found out and began to realize what it really is, it way over reacted the other way
Ian on twitter had a beautiful example of this: "From week 48 to week 62 (only 24 weeks) - the treatment group declined 24 meters and it was fine - but now its negative - makes sense"
we have had two big wins here so far
I still think a 3rd is coming
but this was an expensive market attitude adjustment, for the moment
I have read your post
here are my responses
1. stop picking on me
2. why must you attack me?
3. I feel under attack
4. do not mess me with me, cuz I am never wrong
5. I think I am super
thank you for your support
if we go back to the rumors of a month ago in the dmd community ...
the boy who broke his ankle has allegedly gained a substantial amount of weight in the last 6 months, which has impacted his mobility
I believe he was a negative outlier in the aggregate results
I agree 100%. but some of the analysts are somehow worrying that the time on drug for each kid will now potentially be a shorter duration. i think that is nuts.
check his stock status filings
he has since had a "family law" event that materially impacted his holdings, and possibly his cash liquidity
its right in his filings, for quite some time now
I saw it when his net stock status took a fairly hefty drop
consider these questions:
first the assumptions:
1. etep efficacy IN THIS TRIAL ON THESE BOYS AT THESE AGES appears to fall off during year 3 and such trend continues, moving future 6mwt results closer to natural history decline
2. etep safety profile is and continues to be, in the world of drug development, pristine
now the questions:
1. since there is no current way to now know if the same or better efficacy limits would result if boys were put on drug at an earlier age, will the FDA, given the pristine safety profile, now require srpt to do a multi-year trial of younger boys before approving etep on some basis?
2. what is the history of the FDA approving drugs that have efficacy in a specific trial that is under 5 years in duration? (you could ask the same question using 1 year and get a similar answer ...)
3. assuming the common assumption becomes that etep has a "not forever" efficacy horizon of some sort, but is approved by the FDA, how does the "not forever" thing impact revenue projections for etep?
IMO, the market will be tripping all over #3, and currently, I still do not understand WHY
yesterday's analyst statements evidence quite a bit of tripping to me
19,000,000 shares traded
whether the market got the message right or wrong, the reaction to the message was violent
and even if this stock has (had) a larger than norm retail base, that kind of volume is wayyy past retail
I suspect confusion with abound here, at least for now
the list of questions investors will now obsess over materially grew yesterday
and those questions are not bullish
the volume and money flow proves that out
perhaps only a full on, across the board, corporate update will be required to put a realistic face on the totality of the data
take the total distance loss over three years ... what would have happened yesterday if the loss was pro rata over three years as opposed to an apparent spike down in year 3?
what if the average distance loss in year 2 was actually more than it was in year 3? (IT WAS)
the union needs to be peeled
06/30/2014 10,599,929 shares
06/13/2014 11,305,930 shares
shorts were covering while price was dropping
um, that means longs were selling
but none of this means anything after the last 7 trading days
its a brave new world now
no telling what the short interest is now
19,000,000 shares traded today
short interest could be 5 million, or 20 million shares
the as of july 15 report will tell the tale