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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 200 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    From Christine today

    by thigrlsrk Jan 27, 2015 5:09 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Jan 27, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    sounds like there was an uptick in the number of parents who decided to agree to the biop

    I continue to believe the 4th biop result is critical to the fda process, just like the d recount

    why?

    ambulatory benefit is now open to all kinds of debate (natural history moving targets, now even steroid beneifts short term, bla bla bla)

    but the restoration of a reliably measured amount of dystrophin, and what that can mean, especially when drug given at younger ages, is not open to nearly as much debate

    show me good recount and 4th biop results and IMO, this situation graduates from lottery ticket status to something that absolutely must be approved by FDA ASAP

    it might take 5 to 8 years to really know for sure what it does, but absent something better, the fda has to approve if d count is up and they accept the counts

    JMO

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Mar 4, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    the ability to turn an insider stock buy into a negative is a rare gift

    CG has that gift

    drown yourself in a mountain of new options priced at level that personally immunizes you from the entire preceding 18 month stock price drop

    then, do a miniscule purchase, not even in the open market, but from a company plan, at even a material discount to the current stock price

    does this have anything to do with the company's future prospects?

    nope

    but its grade A evidence that the ceo is detached from reality and is a complete doooooooooosh

  • sleeping better and using pencil again (not used since 8th grade)

    17 treatments so far

    she also said np32817 was the worst of the worst

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Mar 23, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    I have just read 3 of the analyst reports

    The views presented therein do not match the bullishness expressed on this board about friday

    this single quote from Wedbush was a common theme:

    "In our view, there is still a long way to go; we believe a takeaway from the workshop is that at
    present, dystrophin production can be supportive of approval, at best; we do not believe it is validated as a surrogate."

    THIS WAS MY EXACT FEAR ABOUT FRIDAY

    namely, the crack in the foundation of the only realistic basis for which etep could receive FDA AA

  • simp08801 simp08801 Mar 18, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    immediate:

    hoffman never said dystrophin should not be used as a surrogate marker

    in fact, he completely supports this thesis

    his entire issue is the manner in which srpt conducted its biopsies and did its d measurements

    he thinks the way srpt did it was a joke

    he has his own proprietary method of doing it

    he has done a ton of damage since fall 2012

    hindsight being 20/20, srpt management SHOULD HAVE KNOWN to get him in their tent

    I often wonder where we would be right now, if hoffman was in the srpt tent for the last 30 months ...

  • Reply to

    JMO

    by simp08801 Mar 19, 2015 8:17 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Mar 19, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    grey

    the future is uncertain, but the past is locked

    look at the entirety of the past in terms of FDA's ND and srpt interactions

    I do not know how any rational, objective thinking person could not recognize that the ND has to date never gotten comfortable in using dystrophin measurements to validate dystrophin as a surrogate marker for AA consideration

    it is not enough to just yell "crime" bla bla bla

    ND has been hung up on issues of substance

    the fact that others may disagree with its hang ups does not make them any less substantive

    what is the purpose of this meeting?

    to enable the ND to get past its hang ups? ... or to validate them? ...

    take stock of the prior FDA public meetings on dmd related issues during the last 30 months (there have been two)

    did anything positive flow from them or did they actually become more fuel for FDA lunacy?

    the answer is lunacy, as the past record shows

    no way to say for sure, but I suspect that dystrophin is the only realistic AA path for srpt (given the totality of the last 30 months), and bmrn knows this

    the past does not universally predict the future, but its a real good start for the analysis

    and in this instance, the analysis is not bullish in terms of the FDA conducting an event like this, at this time, with these people, on this issue

    all JMO

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Feb 23, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    money is possibly God's greatest "objectivity destroyer"

    IMO, if you are able to somehow extract the word "money" from your brain, I assume you would readily agree that the irrefutable very best thing for the dmd community would be for a large pharma to take over for srpt,'s dmd efforts via either partnership or buyout

    (ask yourself this: where do you think the srpt dmd effort would be right now if a large pharma had either purchased or partnered with srpt 30 months ago? ...)

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Mar 5, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    I suspect the size of the ZixDirectory will take a flying leap when all the Ironport users are populated into it

    Having Cisco be the face of the marketing effort is a major plus

    IMO, this is the best and most real pr from Zix in years, and should definitely increase NFYO totals quite quickly once the offerings are up and running

    and imagine if with this, the Google sales become real again

    yikes Zix will almost be real!

  • Reply to

    THE BEAUTY OF THIS PRESS RELEASE

    by bubbizix Mar 5, 2015 1:36 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Mar 5, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    yes the devil is always in the details, and in most instances, the zix details have sucked over the years

    but this could finally be different

    I believe it common knowledge in the industry that Cisco has has multiple dozens of larger scale secure email clients (the kind zix has has generally be unable to get) using its Ironport offering

    Most of those contracts are at least 5,000 user types, with many waaaaaaaaaaaay over that

    the trick will be how many of those existing Ironport customers convert over to the new offering

    my guess is at least most of them

    as for the money, I assume there will be a per seat price, like there is now, and zix and cisco will share in that price (similar to what happened with Google before Google got f'd up)

    we are all guessing here

    but my guess is that this is the first thing I have seen in a looooooooooooooooooooong time which could actually FINALLY materially move the NFYO number

    Zix 2014 NFYOs were $9ish million

    a full ramp on Ironport could move that number by 50ish percent I suspect (i.e., guess)

    bottom line: it looks quite real to this mullet

  • Roth must have been waiting for the new CEO, who starts Monday
    ...

  • impressive:

    11 boys in 4th biop

    that is incredible beyond words and lends such credibility to the results (good or bad ...)

    it appears the only boy out was the one with previous general anesthesia issues

    disappointing:

    no hep c update to follow on to yesterday's ebola update

    radio silence could be here for a while pending pre nda meeting

  • Reply to

    Not a good sign....

    by w.jim43 Feb 3, 2015 9:54 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Feb 3, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    this is not good news

    but it is also news that any investor not in a coma should already be aware of

    the company's market cap has been decimated in the last 6 months

    its called increasing/material investor apprehension/doubt

    I am actually surprised the IV total did not drop more!

    IMO, the market is not always right, but is right more than it is wrong

    the story here should have finally unfolded over the next 6-12 months

    but in the meantime, increasing investor doubt (and resultant market cap reduction) has dominated the trade the last several months

  • in testing to date, drug has moderately less efficacy than at least 4 other compounds

    drug is materially more expensive to make than other 4 compounds

    drug delivery more complicated than other 4 compounds

    largest ebola outbreak in modern history, srpt repeatedly advises all concerned it has a certain limited drug supply available, and the drug is not administered to a single ebola patient

    in prior years, fed gov made multi-million investment in srpt ebola drug, but ceased program (choose whatever reason you want to espouse, end result the same)

    this does not mean that srpt cannot in the future potentially garner a much higher market cap off certain of its other drug candidates

    but IMO, you should definitely scratch ebola off the wish list

  • the weaker trade on mildish volume is not, per se, about anything new that was said on the earnings call

    rather, it was the fact that today's call did not in any way mollify the concerns raised by the things the CEO said on the RBC call earlier this week

    WARNING

    if you disagree in any way with anything I have said in this posting, then YOU ARE DEAD TO ME

  • Reply to

    Dear Nept shortsllers and former chairman seller

    by simp08801 Mar 23, 2015 6:40 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Mar 23, 2015 6:57 PM Flag

    One more thing short sellers and former chairman seller

    It was a lottery ticket, you and the longs

    Somebody was gunna win and somebody was gunna lose in this game of chance

    You lost, real big

    The royalties are big

    Thank you

  • It's now official

    You just got killed

    Do you know how to use uspto website?

    Welcome to your horror

    ...

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Mar 26, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    The current share price is a remote afterthought in comparison to the impending pre nda meeting with FDA to be held by May 30

    Tock tick

  • if you are a srpt supporter/long investor, you should consider that the hoffman conflicts disclosure issue could be a material negative for srpt

    the frosty relationship between the srpt ceo and fda ND staff is well known, and is considered to not have improved

    that such staff attributed much of their bad press over the last 2 years to such ceo is also well known

    and finally, that hoffman has had behind the scenes dealings with such staff on d measurement related issues, and that they considered his advice in their decisionmaking, is also well known

    and now we have certain srpt supporters/followers who have taken actions against hoffman regarding his less than accurate conflicts disclosure certificate he filed with the fda recently

    the result? once again, an embarrassing AND surely annoying situation has been foisted on the fda relating to dmd

    do you think the fda staff further associates this situation beyond just dmd, and more specifically, with srpt?

    do you think the fda assumes that somehow, the srpt ceo was involved in this situation?

    if very recent directly comparable history be our guide, I suggest the answer to these questions is yes

    do you think the timing of this situation is bad or horrible for srpt? (those are your only 2 choices ...)

    do you hope this situation dissipates very quickly before the fda ND staff get any more annoyed than they probably already are?

    I DO

    why?

    because the enjoyment over watching hoffman skirm is misguided if your goal to have the forward srpt/fda relationship be better than the prior terrible relationship has been

    and lastly, do you think the fda staff knew of hoffman's businesses even though they were not listed, thus leaving the staff focused not on learning anything new, but just focused on more annoyance relating to dmd AND srpt?

    I DO

    be very careful what you wish for

  • if the 4th biops were done and showed all boys producing dystrophin, and ANYBODY knew this, the stock would be trading waaaaaaaay above current trading trading range

    period

    end of discussion

  • Reply to

    a brief millisecond of common sense

    by simp08801 Apr 7, 2015 6:59 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Apr 7, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    hi easy

    I do not think the 4th biopsy results are anywhere near done

    thus, I do not think the 4th biopsy results have anything to do with the recent options activity uptick from the buy side

    what I do know is this:

    srpt has the usual stable of high net worth individual investors, who are bonafide option/put crack heads/addicts, mostly from the option buy/put sell side

    as best I can tell, they view all the money they seemingly regularly LOSE, year after year, on these bets as "the costs of doing business"

    they make HUGE option/put "bets" regularly based upon their views as to the results/timing of impending binary events

    I am sure they think the filing of an srpt NDA is a binary event

    so why did their addiction grab ahold of them now?

    my guess

    Kaye's statements that srpt was "on schedule" for a "mid year" NDA filing, and their view that such statement should have a high likelihood of accuracy

    why?

    cuz lets face it, there was nothing in it for Kaye to stick his neck out and jump on the NDA sword like he did, unless he was quite confident

    if ever there was a time to say "further delay" and get away with it, it would have been now for Kaye, in his new role as the "clean up the mess" guy

    so I attribute the recent call/put activity uptick to the call buy/put sell addicts, who fell off the wagon when they heard kaye yell "mid year"

    and again, I attribute NONE of it to any impending 4th biopsy results

SRPT
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