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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

simp08801 222 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 28, 2015 2:46 PM Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    FREE FALL !!!!!!!!! Going to $12...$10..$8?

    by biggeorgegoo Dec 1, 2014 2:05 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 2, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    winter

    I read the transcript

    I saw nothing materially new other than the official confirmation that the 4th biop was in fact separated from the 168 walk tests

    the walk tests are done, and the 4th biops are now just getting lined up

    this was obvious before yesterday, though, given the anecdotal info from trial parents on the walk test over the last 4 weeks with no mention of the biop

    IMO, first biz day of December is generally a hefty tax loss sale day

    my thought is that impending tax loss sellers would wait to see what CEO might say yesterday before open, and if nothing material or suggestive of something material impending pre 12/31, then undertake tax loss sale to clear buy back as early as possible post 1/1

    CEO did seem to reinforce that 168 week data would come POST 12/31, which has probably been a sell tirgger point for some

    I did not write that down in magic marker just yet, as it would not stun me if that data were to be released later this month

    PS to my friend devil: pleez do not fret, I am safe and sound and on holiday (moving forward, I will signal my holiday plans so you do not get so worried about me, kinda like my buddy star does when he signals his holidays)

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 2, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    others have reviewed this issue and believe they do

  • absent a negotiated patent settlement, the clinical fates of both drisa and etep will be determined years before any disputed patent issue between them is ever finally adjudicated

    you have to expect BioMarin management to whisper the patent issue in this instance

    and you have to expect stock jockeys, monkeys and lessor rodents to jump on it like its gospel

    its not

    it is now, as it has always been

    the fda will determine the ultimate flow of things here, both in terms of drug, and money

    srpt has a mountain to climb, and make no mistake, so does rna/biomarin

    impending srpt clinical data looms large (168 and dystrophin recount)

    much larger than patent noise at this juncture of the timeline

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 2, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    jrrt

    lets assume the srpt 168 wk data is strong and the dystrophin redo's are clearly confirmatory

    how will you feel about the patent issue?

    lets assume the srpt 168 week data is terrible, and worse yet the dystrophin redo's clearly show the original data was wrong

    will the patent issue even enter your mind?

    in the schedule for investors, not traders, the patent issue is corporate management induced noise that finance market trading participants luv to play off

    I really hope I get to a point with this investment where I am keenly focused on worrying about patent issues

    because at that time, we will have a drug that the fda is then signalling that it believes works

  • simp08801 simp08801 Dec 2, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    dear devil

    your response is appreciated

    but pleez reread my post

    I was merely asking you how you were doing

    I shall assume you are doing super

  • Reply to

    Why would anyone be buying into the close?

    by whatmeworriee Dec 2, 2014 4:00 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 2, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    This would only be possible after devil did an analysis of what percent up or down all of bio was, compared to what srpt was. He does not make these decisions mindlessly like we do, and rather, his decisions are founded in solid mathematical analysis which can only be done on an HP 12C calculator.

  • lets say our target was 2.75

    which means we have already exceeded our target!

    this mullet is thrilled that we are now 38 cents over our target!

  • simp08801 by simp08801 Dec 3, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    what is your srpt priority list?

    here is mine, in order of priority:

    1. 168 week walk data (why? IMO, the continuing fad saga on dystrophin as a surrogate marker becomes moot, in reality, if the fda even gets a hint of no clinical efficacy)

    2. thrice confirmed (or not) dystrophin data: unless you are living under a rock on Uranus, it seems clear that the FDA is highly suspect of something about the srpt dystrophin data, so confirmation of such data via a process we now know was approved by fda is a very close second behind 1 above)

    3. staying on schedule in all ways, regarding all fda imposed NDA filing preconditions, for the mid 2015 NDA filing (this is now even more important now that RNA is spelled BioMarin … and accomplishing this seems harder than it appears, especially generating required safety data since the srpt dosing of new patients makes a snail look like it could win the Olympic 100 yard dash)

    4. 4th biop results (this is 4th only because the visibility on this outcome should be informed by 2 above (and IMO, results of 2 comes before results of 4

    5. actually finding a real person take srpt CSO job (the failure of the CEO to actually accomplish this to date is very troubling to this stock monkey, as it may signal his continuing thirst for sole power over everything, and worse)

    6. reading and categorizing your posts, for future use by all mankind

    as to timing, I think all bets are off on 1 and 2, as they could drop today, or two months from today (I hope sooner than later)

  • Reply to

    dear devil

    by simp08801 Dec 3, 2014 8:06 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 3, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    yo jrrt

    "filled" does not get you 3 months of safety data

    "dosing" does

    the ceo has already started hinting that meeting the safety data requirement, in entirety, could be challenging

    notice when he said we should have safety data on "12 to 24" patients

    RNA had a grand total of 3 patients dosing when they came out with their " we are so pleased to honor our redosing promise" pr (which was geared to swipe at srpt for missing all its targets)

    srpt is hopefully not following suit

    to get that minimum 3-month safety data on an acceptable number of boys, they need to be materially ramping dosing, not just filling trial size quota

  • you see it all around you

    1. the other day, BioMarin exec's talk of possibly enforcing their US IP rights they allege they have (surrrrrrrrrrrrrre, but it works real well in terms of posture)

    2. one day after the srpt dmd community update, first thing in am BioMarin CEO uses words which clearly are intended to suggest that it "chose" to buy RNA over Srpt (giving impression it had a choice of either and chose RNA)

    3. now, BioMarin CEO is on fastmoney today at 5pm

    this gamesmanship will continue as long as clinical and fda directional vagaries continue

    once you have clinical and fda clarity, it will cease ipso facto

    but for now, its the wild west

  • Reply to

    dear devil

    by simp08801 Dec 3, 2014 8:06 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 3, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    hi devil

    most importantly, what I am suggesting is that reading your posts is a key facet of my srpt investment experience!

    thank you

  • Nept BOD member John Moritz yesterday filed notice of two insider purchases made on November 24 and 25 totaling 99,570 shares

    needless to say, quite bullish

    IMO the price of this stock has become ridiculous given recent insider buys and substantive news

    further IMO, it will not last

  • Dec 3/14 Dec 3/14 Montgomery, Adrian Taylor Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 11,000

    THIS IS NOT TEA LEAVES

    ITS CINDER BLOCKS COMING DOWN

    THE INSIDER BUYS IN THE LAST 30 DAYS ARE NOW ACCELERATING

  • new AF article is good example of how sprt worm has turned, for the moment

    AF actually uses words that clearly imply that BioMarin had a choice BETWEEN rna and srpt and chose rna

    he is correct, in that BioMarin did choose to buy rna

    but there was NO opportunity to buy srpt, none, nada, zilch

    there was NO choice regarding srpt

    and he knows that, or at least should know that

    clearly, he did not check with srpt on this issue

    very good example of the negative vibe surrounding srpt at this time

    this vibe will not fix itself

    impending data looms

    PS to devil: pleez ask star to check around on staffing issues, cuz although me and my friend johnny87778 both think np is a dooooosh, we must check on every lead we get

  • Reply to

    zix and BYOD - too little too late

    by shoorthing Dec 5, 2014 11:02 AM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 7, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    dear wang

    GASH

  • Reply to

    It's all about the ceo

    by starfe11 Dec 8, 2014 3:39 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 8, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    rico

    it has been a very strong year in the market, generally

    when a stock has the kind of 2014 chart that sprt has, you have to expect tax loss selling at year-end

    its a truism

    could the company issue material news of some kind before year end?

    it obviously could, but I would not count on it

    the tax loss selling could end now, or it could go on for days and days more

    no way to know for sure

    also, IMO, the BioMarin/RNA transaction is likely considered a net negative by many

    all in, I would not expect any life lines right now

    the new data needs to come and it needs to be very good

    I suspect after January 1

  • but I do not want to upset my friend devil

  • Reply to

    I was thinking of buying

    by simp08801 Dec 8, 2014 10:40 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 9, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    dear devil

    I am not selling until you tell me to

    I don't care how many times gary tells me to sell

    you are my ONLY srpt investment/spiritual advisor

  • Reply to

    I was thinking of buying

    by simp08801 Dec 8, 2014 10:40 PM
    simp08801 simp08801 Dec 9, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    thank you for the clarity

    during this confusing time, clarity is so needed

SRPT
13.90+0.08(+0.58%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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