My take on it is that most longs are holding on to their shares and don't want to sell in the face of likely good news coming. And shorts aren't ready to cover yet, hoping and praying for a dip to buy. So no one's budging. But as ASCO approaches my feeling is that shorts will begin to worry and begin to cover next week and there will be a steady grind up on high volume.
First off, nothing is "for sure". Second, why would anyone making $50,000 per month trading stocks be on a yahoo message board? How can someone who ONLY bashes a stock ever make any money? Don't you have to buy at some point? And that brings me to my third point, why do you give advice on this message board to sell now? Are you just a nice guy trying to help everyone out? I don't think so. You want to see sellers so you can cover at a lower price. Fourth, you hope there is no news next week because you know it is your last chance to buy cheaper. You know there is news coming and you know you need to close out your short position. I bet this steady grind up this whole week is killing you. lol That's what you get for betting against a company that is making a product to save peoples' lives.
You sound exactly like the guy last week who said "Sell at $8 and buy back at $7. Easy money." How is that working out for him now? He was wrong just like you.
If you really believe ADXS is "junk science" then why do you think $3 is the right price? Why not $2 or $1? If it's junk then it's worthless, right? And... why would any intelligent person listen to one word of a basher who has the word "basher" in his name? How objective could you possibly be? You look to be desperate to me. You better cover before you lose everything.
With so many shorts on this board lately I think it went back up to 8.0 million. They got too risky, which is usually a sign of the bottom.
I agree. So many shorts here are a good sign. And seeing how we haven't had any big dips the last few days they are getting nervous. They can see the potential for this stock to rise a LOT further.
Really. Guys like smarkell, legrand_merde, take it down, bogus weems, and doctordanadxs can't possibly be the smart shorts. Their posts are all emotion and very little fact. Do they really invest their money based purely on emotion? Doctordanadxs said this on May 5th: "plenty of time to short". ADXS closed at $7.39 on May 5th and is up 10% since that time. If he really does put his money where his mouth is then he's down a hefty sum. Don't the shorts on this board know there is new data coming? Looks like they don't. The smart shorts have already covered and left the dumb shorts here to peddle their fear trash talk to longs who pretty much not buying their garbage.
It's not as easy as you try to make it sound. I try to sell off some at the top and buy back cheaper too, but it doesn't always move the way you expect it to. As for your suggestion to sell today at $8 and sell at $7, like you suggested, you're betting on a 12.5% drop (and that assumes you've guessed correctly on the short-term top, something very hard to do). That's just way too risky, especially with ASCO coming up soon (and likely positive results). IMHO
Triple digits might seem like a dream now, but it really could happen, in 2017 or 2018, if the data comes in strong. I've seen stocks quadruple in one day because of good data and I've seen stocks rise 10-fold in a few weeks or months. So it is possible. In any case I am betting ADXS tests last years highs before this year is out.
These results look familiar. 38.5% overall survival. Over 50% survival in patietns who underwent all 3 doses. Didn't we see these results last year?
Actually the n=10 are the 10 people who survived for 1 year. 16 patients passed away. That gives us the 38.5% which is a good number in and of itself. But what is important to me is the comparison of patients who received all 3 doeses and the ones who didn't. All 8 patients who did not receive all 3 doses died while 10 out of the 18 patients who received all 3 doses had a 1 year survival of 55.6% which is fantastic!
I can see reasons for ADXS investors to stay positive. In fact this news may even be a blesing for ADXS because it makes us look better than ADRO and may convince investors that ADXS is the leader, not ADRO. But at the same time it should cause some pause for concern and a reality check that sometimes drugs fail their tests and you have to go about with caution. With so many people connecting similarities ADXS with ADRO in this field, I would have thought that this big failure of ADRO's would cause some selling in ADXS too. Like I said, I guess I just don't understand. But I will gladly accept ADXS in the green today!!
The way I see it is that it was changed from "Active, not recruiting" to "Suspended" in February this year. And the reason given was "Unacceptable toxicity". And on May 6th the reason was changed for unacceptable toxicity to "other". It is a mystery as to why they changed the reason, but my take is that "other" may be better than unaccepted toxicity. Also ADXS issued the press release about the upcoming ASCO presentation in April, so they already knew that the trial was not recruiting new patients at that time and already knew about the "unacceptable toxicity". Yet they still continued on with the presentation plans which is a good sign.
Actually I found your post amusing because every good trader knows you can't predict an exact bottom like that. It is possible that $7 (or closing $7.17) will be the bottom, but I just feel it hasn't finished its run down yet. That's not a wish (because I have a lot invested) rather it's just how I see it. And of course if/when it does go below $7 I will have to bring this post back up again. :) But as we get further into May, and closer to June 6th, the shorts (the smart ones anyway) will begin closing their positions and we'll move higher. And if the news is better than expected we could shoot past $10 easily.
Closing costs huh? Guess the part about "ADXS will never go below $7.08 throughout rest of ADXS history" must have thrown me off. Because I would swear that this morning was part of their "rest of history". But ok, you say closing costs. I'm willing to bet you're even wrong about the closing price. ADXS is still filling the gap and my guess, not expert opinion everyone, is that we will push into the $6s before we go back up. Just my guess. Ok now all guys who are married to this stock can give me thumbs down. Like I care.
I'm betting you're wrong. I'm betting this stock tests the February lows but doesn't break below them. Then before the June news the stock price rises as shorts cover in case the news is good. And I bet the June news will be good, maybe even great (wouldn't it be nice to see every trial participant show significant improvement) and the stock price will rocket up as we break thru the recent highs of $10. And I'm betting that the June news will be the spark that will set this stock back on a long-trend rise that will eventually pass the $30 mark last year.