i feel many of these bancorps are over priced given this cloudy climate for the stock market housing and credits of all kinds
looking to invest only at steep discounts to reflect the current trouble economy and out look esp for banks
thus even the good banks ain't no good in this market
bank investors are fewer and fewer and valuation likely to be cheaper
like we need a very discount to lure us into these stocks again !!
how is the housing market ?
wall street journal says seattle is down 4% YOY
will ffnw loose 4% on its home construction and land loans ??
is it too simplistic to think so ?
i know the area is enjoying robust employment
so houses can be sold off
4 month inventory in seattle according to wall street journal ?
ffnw as a lot of these loans but the market area appears to be strong so loses may not be charged off at all or might be a small amount ?
lot of profits dividends and buybacks here for share holder s and the old salts who run this successful bank for many years shareholder and profit friednly place !! sienjoco
ok stop laughing
i like these retreads , govt has looked over the books
worth a play at 60 's of book only ! we should ourselves a 15 buck book for this cigar butt.
this is a cheap dividend paying stock ! grosslyundervalued !!
any locals have any thoughts on the local community that ffnw serves ? are there tons of for sale signs ? have there been huge mark down in RE prices ??? i always presumed seattle has aslow and steady RE market and values , but in this market maybe it is bubbled up too and that is the risk for ffnw ..... they might have to won a bunch of new homes in the 300k range , wondering if they could be sold off at say 15% loss ???? go ffnw !!!! nice dividend! sinejoco
i agree and have done the same thing . i think this one is trading so rich because there is a big short interest and i think there are some 13d filings from activists and the float is small and the bank buys shares in good size , but there is no value here...it is a good stock to sell////sinejoco i like the bank but not th ee price so it is purley a valuation call..joco
super cheap and safe stock here
yummy discount to book value
plenty of cash for safety and buyback power !
a lot cheaper and better then WFD
i like this stock better then cash in this wild market today
own a dollar for 80 cents that is worth 1.25 on a take over basis adjusted for over capped sheet..... we even might be able to buy back ;oads fo stock under book build up value with out risks yup i like this one fully converted ! joco 14% a year till it is sold out going for singles here
fantastic !!! this will clean out the game of thrift investors here this very unpleasent difficult bank in SI with a very nice deposit share something like 10% , goes mhc , defends itself . makes very few loans and bought a pool of loans cdo whatever . i dont much like that bank , so allocation in a huge market downdraph , had a spectactular low allocation and a sub standard pop .... i dont like these mhc 's now very little earnings or growth and no chance for sell outs and 2nd steps do not help share priice as valuations are decling and the housing biz is lousey............ the golden age of banking is over ......... now i look for sub book fully converted clean thrfits ready to be bought out .....mhc offers little now as 2nd steps valuations down and not likely to rise as long as housing is down.....2nd steps getting done at 87% of book big jersey ones migh go off AT 100% of book now way down from 115% a few months back..............................the golden age of mhc is over..........dump mhc these funds are going to get fed up with them after many years and there is no answer 2nd step offers nothing now !!!! we need fully converted piiggie at 65% of book in new jersey again ! joco
this is weird stock
i see this one a self serving for the two brothers who run it , it is poorly run defensive mhc , this is will give a bad name to thrift investments i am surprised by it 12 plus price in this market ..would buy at 8 or 9 otherwise this stock has nothing to do but to pay salarys to the brothers for the next 7 to 10yeasrs with out shareholder value sad but true thedark side of mhc i like standardsnow
free love !
let people get married
let people do what they want as long as they hurt no one joac law of examined morality have some fun
avoid @ ! this si the type of recapp we would pay 50% of book at this point in the cycle and for a troubled bancorpt like BCSB , why pay 80% when i can buy other clean companys at say 85% of book???
ok we might not be offered this at 50% but at least weshould be offered at no more then 70% of book !
even at 70% of book i would pass !
now is the time for only the cleanest of bancorps in good locations (not balt) at good sub book valuation discounts
very few bancorp to be bought be selective !
credits now not as good as home prices flat to falling next five years
so the loans have more risk
why buy this?
or if you are turnaround sell out player should at least start a new postion here at no more then 70% of book
80% is way to high !!! avoid at 80% not enough safety or upside
there will be some fantastic buys coming!! already we have seen TFSL at good prices ...buy better stuff at good prices and be willing to wait and to skip deals passing deals is the right thing to do !!! save your firepwoer men and make these apprisals come dfown!! a lot !! i am sick of these values as the home prices are risky , these valuations need to reflect this , 65% standards
75% mhc 's this is not the time to play every deal looking to book every nickel , save your coin !! joco
i bot some of this overpriced piggie 3 years ago , and before that too , when was mhc , it is really time to sell out for 13 or more , this has been strung out for over ten years , it has been milked. sooner would be most welcomed sell out at what ever the going price is....perhaps it is 14.25 ? sinejoco
i think this bank is seeing increased volume of quality conforming loan production there is a lot less lenders on the stage and we loaded with excess cash and can get a lot more cash through a second step if needed , while no one can predict the future , but , this bank may grow very fast in this climate of low rates and less competeion , again i like the risk reward , and if wrong , i hope that this extreamly low evtry point will provide lot of protection ....adjusted book is about 100% here , so when you buy TFSL you get the bank for free , it is traDING AS IF the franchise is worth nothing extra . i say in this new market real depsoits are worth more .................if TFSL is successful you make alot , if not i submit from an entry point of book , the losses will be minor or may even make a gain by being wrong but right on valuation....i guess i luv cheap stocks!!!! joco
agree i luv the risk reward here we cannot control macro climate , but we can surely buy new positions under book and place the odds squarely in our favor
yield slope better
thius over capped piggies has liquidity a major asset these days
buyback on a 30% floater yummy aint much stock and endless money to buy stock
quality lender no subprime or 0 down wild stuff all backed buy good money down............
tfsl is also growing but with thin margins but they are not fighting the way of this biz but going with the stream we will be a much bigger bancorp in 3 years !! go tfsl !!!!
could TFSL and other quality thrifts enjoy a refi boom while RE sales continiue to slow?
TFSL is a prudent lender and has a good work ethic , which i am guessing means also they will pay out very nice dividends to "their people" in clevelend . like he has to pay to all the friends of his father , who own stock . this could be a very nice div payer , as he retaisn control of the compnay and enjoys fat salary , could see CFFN like dividend waive production maybe greater because we begin with only 30% floated , if it can be drivend down to say 23% wow then we can really ramp up the div with harming the balance sheet ala " the waive" maybe this is really a waive play all said and done i am willing to find out i will assume risk of ownership for while to see if it comes if it does not i pbelieve risk is low as we are prudent lenders and the price here is super cheap.....this could be a 15 dollar stock paying our 15cents each quarter in 12 months it is supportable and workable he may want to please the old timers in cleveland.....joco
yeah i jusr luv dallas pure play of VPFG my favorite
northfiled should be ok they did not buy too much of that kind of paper
the depsoits are excvellent !
but in no way compare to VPFG VPFG has growth safety non bubble asset prices and a fast growing economy ! jobs coming from california every day !
texas has the highest take over prices 3- 4 times book.
should we bother with northfiled? another intrenched mhc in a super area with some junky paper too boot , now our subsecotr has more to think about
the golden age of banking has past...
i think northfiled will work for small pop and ok returns over time , it is a lot cheaper then roma at issue...joco good minds can think alike!