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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

sirius_yomama_2 130 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 5:16 PM Member since: Sep 24, 2003
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  • sirius_yomama_2 by sirius_yomama_2 Aug 27, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    aren't putting holes in the white paper with their infinite wisdom! lol...just the begining. Once the NYSE is satisfied this thing will shoot north of $2 on that alone.

  • Reply to

    Tipping point approaching?

    by marlin888 Aug 22, 2014 12:14 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 27, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    oh don't forget SPDL and MARA too....they are my track record as well....try over 100% gain on just these two. I might lose on couple but I make a ton on others. Hence why I spread seeds on multiple potential. ETAK will be a huge winner...multi bagger. I will sell this on over $10 in 3 years. Tag this post.

  • Reply to

    Tipping point approaching?

    by marlin888 Aug 22, 2014 12:14 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 27, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    You are right....MSTR, IMAX, NUAN are among them. My Track record that I have consistently mention to be 3 to 5 years on ETAK has proven to be wrong? Is it 5 years yet? Come remind me in 3 more years fool! lol

  • sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 26, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    d1c, my prediction here was based on anticipation of a much larger chucks of SIMs from Iusacell as indicated by the management. But realistically, and for good reason, we got much less and much slower even as we have to clean up IBM issues. So unforeseen circumstances require change in my forecast for later, I believe in April or May, I update to $50-70M run rate. Even that remains o be seen as how fast we can realistically get these sims in. Obviously at this rate we will hit that run rate this year. So hurry up and wait as usual. Finally, if I was you I wouldn't waste so much time with the resident dip $h1T.

  • Reply to

    Maybe Next Year a M & A? Who knows

    by biggergrove Aug 21, 2014 5:51 PM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 26, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    So you have ONE post EVER and that is what you say....birdbrain!

  • Reply to

    Maybe Next Year a M & A? Who knows

    by biggergrove Aug 21, 2014 5:51 PM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 26, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    lol!! OKKKK

  • Reply to

    Accordingly:

    by philipswallowflip Aug 22, 2014 10:40 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 23, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Philip. The system serving Iusacell only so far is in Mexico and has current capacity of 10M SIMs. This system can be easily upgraded by adding servers only to house 10M additional SIMs. The initial outlay of these system is always more expansive because it includes network equipment component and redundancy system. However, once that is completed the additional 10M Subs can be added by simply increasing the servers that house the database of the SIMS. So the capital outlay is much smaller than original. Furthermore, Spain has its own system in place already with initial 10M subs capacity as well. So in EU we are good to grow and parse the system for other carriers too if we win business. With Zain I am not sure if they had deployed a new platform or parse out the one in Spain. Since the they don't need to carry voice packets to the BO system once initial call has been set up they might be utilizing the core of the platform in Spain and have some initial call setup systems in Zain to initiate set up and capture network date for BO system in Spain. At least that is way I would design this system to reduce cost and increase utilization of current infrastructure. Now as some point these two systems must be separate if Zain ever reach its full potential and a new system should be deployed in SA which can than be parsed for that entire region up to 20M.

  • Reply to

    Tipping point approaching?

    by marlin888 Aug 22, 2014 12:14 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 22, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Fact is that in financial modeling there are only a couple of methods that street uses mainly to drive a fair valuation of stock price...they are multiple of PE and multiple of Sales. You can come up with your own method on ETAK it works for you but its not what street uses across the board on evaluating a stock price. Your assumptions has a huge hole when it comes per sim revenue that can be achieved on average since we don't know. In you model if you give each sim a $1 valuation or 10 cent valuation will yield a huge variable on revenue which street uses to price a stock. For example with $1 per sim the revenue on 8-10M sim can be $96-120M yearly and at 90% margin we are talking about 10-20x PE valuation which most likely yield north of $6 per share. With 10 cent per sim that will be only $9.6-12M! How would be the same across the board for you?? You can run with that if you like but it just doesn't work in reality. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    Tipping point approaching?

    by marlin888 Aug 22, 2014 12:14 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 22, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    I am not sure what are you referring to with "20 cents per million SIMs"? That is not how you evaluate a stock. At this point there two reasons why we are stuck in this range....NYSE compliance and cash on hand. Now the solution for both is the remaining 3.2M on this batch to be completed and transferred. That will show compliance to NYSE the although the cash is low as this point it will start increasing as we have hit positive FCF. Once we can prove and remove these two concern the market will give high valuation for a revenue base with 90% margin....something in range of 5-10x forward revenue. Once fully transferred, the 10M plus SIMS should produce about $50-70M forward revenue including increase in VS business. At 5x revenue we looking at $250M cap which translates to about $2 plus per share minimum. I personally think for 90% margin revenue growing the way we are the market will slowly price in 10x revenue and we should see $4-5 by sometimes next year.

  • Reply to

    Great Shareholder Letter

    by rad74402103 Aug 16, 2014 9:12 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 22, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    The important aspect here is that company starts making money from the merchants on a monthly fee in next few months. This what I am hearing. If this growing merchant base is to pay $50/month than we can have a substantial revenue base that will help grow the company quickly and go after transactions fee from credit card processing.

  • sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 22, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    mts..from a technical perspective and with what we know of IBM's mess on this network its taking some additional time to fix the issues before transfer can take place. Unlike ETAK platform, the IBM systems are disparate and patched together. SIMS of various locations could be separated by various categories including geography.or signal type. Under each grouping there might different type of problems that has to be addressed before transfer. Another words its not one solution fix all. So as such it took a while to get that first 600K in from the time it was announced and it seems to be a separate grouping than this 5M. So now that they have been working this grouping and first second batch has transferred we can assume based on what they are saying on the CC that remaining 3M will be transferred by end of September that this grouping is part of the fix of this last batch and that by next month and half we will be looking into window of time to transfer what has been fixed up already. So basically it took 4-5 months to fix this 5M batch and now is going to be transferred over one database at a time or one geographic at a time based on scheduled time frame.

  • Reply to

    Maybe Next Year a M & A? Who knows

    by biggergrove Aug 21, 2014 5:51 PM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    We need to grow organically first. We can even consider a sell now at position of weakness. Give it another couple of years and you will see VS spin off or sold. Than another 3 years ETAK will be taken out.....only at that time it will be in double digits...

  • Reply to

    This is what is most impressive

    by sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 9:32 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Another fact...... We know that the prepaid MVNOs are the most difficult to migrate because of so many variation of SIMS and phone type in the market. So hence the slow mythological moves forward. The last 3M are regular post paid types I believe and those should be much faster. Hopefull they migrate the remaining 3.25M SIMs by end of September or around that and we can get this NYSE #$%$ out of the way be cash flow positive.

  • sirius_yomama_2 by sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Martin Zuurbier, Chief Technology Officer of Elephant Talk, added, "In close cooperation with Iusacell, we have successfully migrated another group of Iusacell subscribers without a single SIM-module having to be changed. This performance confirms our confidence in completing all migrations as planned."

    To have the CEO of such a big MNO consistently praising our work and technology is a huge statement to our credibility and to our managements ability to ensure the success of this migration. Why its taking so long?? well as Martin puts it "without a single SIM-module having to be changed"....wow! That, from a technical perspective, is amazing indeed. To bring together what is a f ed up system from IBM with many legacy variation mixed and different systems integrated with scotch tape and not lose one SIM is amazing.

  • Reply to

    Only 3-4 days late!! Not bad (just kidding)

    by grindle00 Aug 21, 2014 9:23 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Mexico, Spain, SA, U.S since they have a platform here....

  • Reply to

    Well they did it

    by wc1200 Aug 19, 2014 10:02 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    Grindle..there are a couple of people here who are very SVV sensitive. They keep showing that they have no understanding of this business, any business, and IT. Secondly they would like to project their lack of understanding with misinformation on this board. Even if you would like to go word by word on SVV this time it still not considered a "lie" because "in next few days" means a number of days greater than 2. So freaking stupid to keep barking on stupid things like this and not the big picture. Try to consider where ETAK will be next year at this time with over `10M sims pumping 90 percent margin not counting any other opportunity closed and migrated. smh~

  • Reply to

    For those who stay the course......

    by commonsenseareus Aug 21, 2014 2:32 AM
    sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 21, 2014 7:07 AM Flag

    Although its taking more time than anyone expected on Sims from Iusacell the achievement so far this year is remarkable as we become well known in the industry with likes of HP and IBM now knows. IMO once our revenue reaches 200M we will be taken out entirely or in part. This can be achieve in 2 years if they satisfy current customer as proof concept reference to the huge pipeline of MNOs that they are courting now. The remaining SIMs from Iusacell is essential in more ways than revenue for us. It is most importantly the best reference in volume we have. Hence why I say it really doesn't matter at what per sim cost we are doing this because at 100 percent margin it will hit the bottom line anyway but its more important that they do it asap so we can show that our platform can accommodate large number and can so smoothly without any issues!

  • sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 18, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Expect...if you were being sarcastic than I didn't see that. All I know is this guy with an obvious agenda based in hate of SVV (ex-employee most likely) and an undeclared intention no matter how many asked (long, short, trader) just spews the same garbage over and over again and doesn't need any help. Secondly I never said financials doesn't matter! I have said that they will be fine given business at hand with Iusacell and Vodafone. Furthermore, SVV has had no problem floating the business on his own and other stakeholders financing, although at much better terms for themselves given the slide in stock price. So this time around and with sims schedule to come over soon the ongoing financial concern on operational side will be lifted and we see how the market will award the stock at that point. IMO we still need some type of financing to strengthen future business operations in pipeline so I hoping they can finally get a decent debt financing soon as well. As far as selling the company, in my discussion a couple of times with SVV at shareholder meetings I understand the desire to sell the company as "some point" but its not anytime soon. When the brought in Paul I know that the spin off of VS is not too far away and maybe in couple of years. But MNO side has a lot of potential that can be captured first with where the industry is in terms of development of SDN platform. When another major competitor comes out with similar type platform is when we need to consider selling and that is what I got from SVV intention.

  • sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 15, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    The fact that you refer to birdbrain to explain anything to you colors you the same. He has no clue but continuously spew garbage that are lies and meant to bash the company. No one to this date knows why he is here. Do you? Secondly, of course the company or a segment of it will be sold as some point. That is a partial goal. However, we don't need to sell. We are going to be a cash cow model by next year as we execute Iusacell and other opportunities in pipeline with and without HP. As some point the industry is going to wake up and say we either develop internally a system to compete with ETAK or just buy them. If, as commented by SVV on the CC, Ericsson is starting to develop a platform it will mean in next 3 to 5 years it will be commercially available. If they succeed that means others like HP and IBM will also have to develop one OR go out and buy ETAK. At that point it will be much more feasible for them to buy a fully developed, tested, and revenue producing platform that to spend $billion to develop one. Its that time that we will valued at highest multiple and selling the company will be smart. Right now its stupid to even think about it. We are a leader in the sector of such platform and we have now three huge carriers that are giving us more and more of their business out of confidence of its reliability and cost cutting capability. For now its best to concentrate on sales and get us recognized in the market. Frankly, with 100% margin in the business its not important to worry about per sim revenue because anything added to the platform now is pure gravy.

  • sirius_yomama_2 sirius_yomama_2 Aug 15, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    25 is way off. You assumption are completely unfounded. A simple division of revenue to total sims on platform, even if you give full Q credit to the last 600K transferred, will prove this.

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