correct. ideally i'd like to see a big flush, which i think may come next week given all the 13 filings coming out now and the 60 mins rerun. after i exit those i may just clear the entire position to lock in the gain from the puts. unlikely i would get behind this as a long.
if you bought 11.50 strikes and your premium was .10 cents...then you need it to go to 11.40...to break even. 12.50 does nothing for you. theta is seriously workign against you the weekend. what you are playing is the 60 minutes rerun.
it barely took out yesterday's high and faded by almost 30 cents into the close. come monday it'll be back below 13. #liferaft
matters not. the short covering rally ended. i'm sure you probably get in at the 40s. 14.10 today was a chance to just book the loss. like they say first loss best loss. i thought it would finish up 30 to 50 cents today. changing that estimate to up 8 to 10 cents. this was a nonevent.
biff, the short covering rally today isn't even holding. 3:20 and nearly 5.5 million shares have traded and it looks like it will finish up 30 to 50 cents. let's say half if not more of those are short covering. that takes the short ratio down to 20% . so basically a third of the shorts were cleaned out today and the stock popped only a dollar. there are no incremental buyers for this right now. so unless the short ratio can go negative (it can't) then the top for LL is 16. in otherwords $2 to clear out the remaining shorts. what do you think? any 13-F or 13-D filing at this point is just a noise on the road to single digits.
we'll see. i'd suspect the weak shorts will cover for sure, but you'll have people that have been wanting to short on a bump to get in. i really think any bump is going to be met with new shorts (but it will get more expensive on a margin basis). until the CPSC or CARB finally issue something it won't go up materially and by materially i mean it'll stay far below 15.
one other thing...they may report/update that Tilson has closed out his short position. i'm not a long, but that is possibility. if that were the case the small guys like me that have small net short positions will get burned huge on monday. i think it is unlikely but a consideration.
they'll give their standard update that the authorities (CPSC and CARB board) are still evaluating and they'll toot their own horn about all the executive resignations. the media loves reporting when they are right on things and made an impact.
Wow, this is actually true. However, I'm not sure it makes a difference. If the results were accurate this more of a "does the end justify the means?" I would think Benchmark would file an injunction to halt CBS form re-airing the report. There was a poster on the board earlier who noted the CBS report is old news, but he was right it will disseminate the message to potential customers. So there is a detrimental impact to it.
just stay out on the long side. there are better uses of capital that will provide better returns with far less risk. it is going to $0. i live near the headquarters and would love for them to survive, but i think we are talking a full liquidation at this point and not a restructuring. sad story really.
He wasn't kidding. It'll be down tomorrow again and all next week.
if CBS thought there was anything nefarious about their story they wouldn't rerun it this weekend. last chance to sell before single digits.
shorting tomorrow is 100% guaranteed money come 9:30 am. even if the stock is down only 10%.