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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

skepticpencil 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 22, 2014 1:29 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2000
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  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Sep 22, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    While I was in my local Pep Boys getting some tires put on (bought elsewhere), I noticed that there were new things happening in the store, a new feel, if you will. Mostly it was the fact that there was an upper-level-manager-type walking around the store, checking if customers were being helped. There was a free diagnostic thing going on in the parking lot as well. I don't know how it worked out, but I just sensed that somebody is pushing for changes at the company. So, after selling a couple of years ago at around $15 and change, I've decided to take another small position in PBY. They can compete with ORLY and AZO, but they've got to be more aggressive and portray a more modern image. Maybe they should change the look of Manny, Moe, and Jack to match the times? Change them every 6 months or so. Get them some tattoos, etc. Maybe even change their look for the seasons. Have fun with them. Anything to differentiate. If they insist on keeping MM&J, make them interesting. Make them fashionable. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • We'll see where it goes, and whether shorts develop any confidence that they can take it lower. Congrat's to those who jumped on it under $40. I was tempted, but am a bit too heavy in DORM right now to have added shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Consolidation would make sense

    by felixredux Sep 17, 2014 9:48 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 19, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    I'd think that a clothing/fashion company would be a more likely suitor. As I said in an earlier post, a company like FOSL. I'm not sure how much revenue comes from watches at ZQK, but FOSL's a gorilla in that fashion arena. They have also been dabbling, with little success (I believe.) in clothing. It would be a great acquisition for them. That said, they may have their corporate hands full with trying to compete against the new wrist accessories, i.e. Apple Watch, etc. Fossil has an agreement now with Google to help them develop fashionable designs for cases, bands, buckles, etc., to go with their wrist offerings. No matter what, something has to be done with this company. It's stock has languished for years, especially this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FOSL IS A SELL, DOWNSIDE TARGET $75

    by smallmovesbiggains Sep 10, 2014 11:31 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 12, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    The Apple watch has been priced into FOSL for the past couple of years. Sure, this is as close as it's come to really happening, but it's still not what was factored into the price. After all, the Apple watch is not really a smart watch at all, is it? It's more of a dumb terminal, like old-computer terminals that did not compute on their own, but rather depended on being hooked up to the main computer. It's not really a watch, it's more of a "wrist terminal", and I believe that it will get old, fast as in inconvenient redundancy. Style doesn't answer to convenience. Fossil has great designers, and the market recognizes it. That's why today's biggies, Michael Kors in particular, employ Fossil for their timepieces.
    To some extent, Apple was the victim of other dogs' tails wagging they as the dog. If they weren't competing for technological bragging rights against the big Goo, Samsung, and others, they'd never have wasted their time with the Apple watch's development. It's sad to see this corporate ego competition going on, but these companies are always anxious about getting beat to the punch on something. The Apple watch was a purely defensive play, not a worthy result of the different drum-beat that Jobs used to listen to. What a way to live. I almost feel sorry for those corporate "persons". I do feel for the humans running those companies. The stress must be brutal, as shareholders demand so much, while knowing so little.
    This is not to say that Wall St. won't try to capitalize on a stock that shows some type of vulnerability, as evidenced by the short-side pumpers in evidence here.
    It's the short-pumpers that are (at least spewing) "junk", not Fossil as a company.
    Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    should be an up day tomorrow

    by buffetjr73 Sep 8, 2014 5:20 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 8, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    BTW: I do see that ZQK is carrying some "goodwill" on the books, but this shouldn't be brand related. They didn't buy Roxy, did they? I believe they started the company back in the early nineties, but I could be wrong.

  • Reply to

    should be an up day tomorrow

    by buffetjr73 Sep 8, 2014 5:20 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 8, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    I guess it comes down to how one values a brand name like Quiksilver/Roxy, as it doesn't show up on the balance sheet. It is certainly subjective, and almost impossible to quantify perfectly. There is, however, a lot of value there, and is probably the reason why insiders seem to be holding tightly, despite tough numbers. Their money really is where their mouth is, as evidenced by their stock exercises and lack of significant selling. Based on this alone, I believe a buy-out is possible despite the very weak balance sheet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all Shorts

    by dividendguy Aug 12, 2014 2:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 22, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    I don't think that the shorts haven't given up yet. However, I still think that we're safe over $40 or so, unless the whole market tanks. ORLY's probably a safer play, as it will be harder for smaller shorts to take down. However, DORM has been good to me over the past few years, so my hands will be stronger than normal here. Longs had a decent week here. I hope it continues. As always, time will tell. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    To all Shorts

    by dividendguy Aug 12, 2014 2:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 14, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    DORM has some of the most solid financial numbers of any publicly traded company that I've looked at. The P/E might have been a bit high when it was at $60, but it's worth a lot more than it's trading for now, IMHO. The thin float of the company can make it a bit nerve-wracking at times...like last week. I feel pretty good about the company and its prospects, going forward, so I would not have a weak hand here.

    It is interesting to note that the short interest listed on NASDAQ went from 23 days to cover, to 9 days to cover between mid-July and the end of July. Somebody was confident that the stock would be punished for missing that $.01?! I find it hard to believe that whoever this entity was didn't help it down by massive shorting after the report. I think that we'll be OK from this point on, providing the general market holds up. Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    Have to love it!

    by happyperson_1 Aug 5, 2014 9:47 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 5, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    You're forgetting about the company buying back $millions in shares. It'll be hard to tell which are those buys and which are short-covering. That said, I think we've found our floor above $40. As always, time will tell. Hang on, longs.

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 4, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    BTW: Based on their reporting, I'd say that DORM's executives were blindsided by this drubbing over $.01 in earnings. Otherwise, I'd think that they would have waited a bit, as I should have, no? There is also the possibility that they could be considering an attempt to take the company private. This is what The North Face did about 12 years ago, after suffering similar market machinations. Who could blame them with this sort of short shenanigans?

  • I jumped too soon, buying at $48 after having sold at $54, and am now getting massacred by those with the power to drive companies down by short-selling. Heck, it might even by someone working for someone who'd like to acquire the company. I don't believe that it's insiders that are selling any more than they normally do as part of a balanced financial plan. Admittedly, Barton Mathias is an exception. I'm screwed in the near term. That is for sure.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Do feel sorry for longs.

    by happyperson_1 Jul 30, 2014 3:53 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 1, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    I was hoping that when the stock hit $50-60 that they'd split it. That might have put them in a position to be less thinly traded. Perhaps it would have made little difference. The sell-off does seem quite overdone when one considers the fact that net earnings probably could have been "massaged" up to make the $.01, and most companies out there are making the earnings numbers, but missing the revenue growth numbers, which DORM surpassed. Mr. Market is mystifying at times.

  • Reply to

    Do feel sorry for longs.

    by happyperson_1 Jul 30, 2014 3:53 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 1, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    You are absolutely right about this being the result of it being a thinly traded company. I had sold at $54 but got back in at $48. It looked like a good move until the other day. Heck, they even beat the revenue numbers. I can't make sense of any of it, but won't be selling. DORM has been a great performer for me over the past few years. I won't lie, it friggin' hurts right now.

PBY
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