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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

skepticpencil 311 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 12:40 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 27, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    BTW: Check out how Yahoo had the headlines timed. Last week, using the same article, they show two negative pages, thereby driving the stock down. Today they show the last page, of the same article, as the positive story, stock goes up. Nothing suspicious there. (SARCASM)

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 27, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Tough one right now. An article last week served to take it down a bit. Article today serving to bring it up a bit. The buy was this morning when it was at $116 or so. You've got to be nimble, and with deep enough pockets to deal with the volatility. The story's still the same for TNH, it's the outside storytellers that change their tunes according to who they want on the dance floor.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    PPC, JBS's piggy bank

    by snogreen Jan 15, 2015 10:26 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 21, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    I agree that the special dividend is a little odd, considering the minimum they'll have to borrow is a little less than $1 billion to pay it, and that's if they completely deplete their cash and equivalents. I'm guessing that the Brazilian owners are distributing so they can avoid taxation somehow, and some wealthy Brazilians will get their hands on a bunch of US dollars, during a time where it's quite strong. The company will still have decent fundamentals after the SD, but certainly not as good. This does make it obvious that the company feels that it's pretty well saturated its market already, and has no plans on growing through acquisitions at this time. No such thing as a free special dividend. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 20, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Have you compared the 5 year TNH chart to the 5 year UNG chart? If you do, you'll see that the last time natural gas was this low, TNH was double where it is now. 'nuf said.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 20, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Still moving like a winner without hype from anywhere = Accumulation (IMHO)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Big boys still seem to be accumulating stocks in companies with stable prospects, and nice dividends. I'm surprised that TNH hasn't been upgraded by any analysts yet, despite moving the way it has in the past few weeks, from the mid-to-high nineties to $124. What other companies have done that without being bought out, or propelled by some other rumor? Not many.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When all is well, MAG is a $60-$80 stock

    by verygoodaccount Nov 24, 2014 7:07 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    I hope that you're right. Funny that Yahoo shows the stock price at $40.65 right now, but my stock account shows it at over $41. Volume number is the same. You've got to watch Yahoo, sometimes I think they have ulterior motives for misinforming. Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    Fertilizer prices up. Nat gas down.

    by mattpco27 Jan 12, 2015 10:18 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 12, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    I agree with your assessment. Last week Yahoo had a survey in which one answer was "I plan on investing in dividend stocks", for safety going forward. I didn't answer because I don't like to tip-off yahoo, who in turn surely sells the data (what the little guy is doing) to big investment houses. However, the trend is that way. TNH has been on my radar for a while. I almost jumped in in the $90's, but had to settle for a small lot at $104. Since then it's been hard to buy, as it just keeps going up. Nothing goes straight up, but this one hasn't hit the analyst upgrade bullhorns, so their bosses are probably still in accumulate mode. Once the upgrade hits, it'll probably be close to a near-term top. Good luck, longs.

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Dec 3, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    Correction: First line should read: " ...just days before reverse stock split's anniversary." Doh!
    It's probably more coincidental than it is "interesting" anyway.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Interesting that this stock is hitting multi-year highs just days prior to the reverse stock split. Momentum traders seem to be on it now, as it hit a 52-week high. On top of that, there was a recent filing showing that Gabelli Partners now has a 3 1/2% stake in MAG. Gabelli's is one of the best, and people in the know, know that. A bit more volatility going forward. Good luck longs. At least my 3 shares, LOL, have tripled in a couple of years.
    For those who don't know, Magnatek was a division of Litton Industries until it split off about 10 years ago. I'm not sure how they do now, but I believe that Litton used to be a titan in aerospace, shipbuilding, and other sectors related to the defense industry.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Had this at $21 sold it at $18

    by fastball.98mph Nov 22, 2014 11:19 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Nov 28, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Don't feel all alone in the world, I sold most of my MAG a couple of years ago. Liked the company but got PO'd that they divested out of the solar business that they had. That was one main reason that I bought them in the first place. I was shocked this morning when I looked in a basically dormant account that I have 3 shares in, and saw that it was over $40. I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me, or they did another 1/10 split or something. Oh well...it's not the first time I've made an investment mistake. Good luck, longs.

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Sep 22, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    While I was in my local Pep Boys getting some tires put on (bought elsewhere), I noticed that there were new things happening in the store, a new feel, if you will. Mostly it was the fact that there was an upper-level-manager-type walking around the store, checking if customers were being helped. There was a free diagnostic thing going on in the parking lot as well. I don't know how it worked out, but I just sensed that somebody is pushing for changes at the company. So, after selling a couple of years ago at around $15 and change, I've decided to take another small position in PBY. They can compete with ORLY and AZO, but they've got to be more aggressive and portray a more modern image. Maybe they should change the look of Manny, Moe, and Jack to match the times? Change them every 6 months or so. Get them some tattoos, etc. Maybe even change their look for the seasons. Have fun with them. Anything to differentiate. If they insist on keeping MM&J, make them interesting. Make them fashionable. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • We'll see where it goes, and whether shorts develop any confidence that they can take it lower. Congrat's to those who jumped on it under $40. I was tempted, but am a bit too heavy in DORM right now to have added shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Consolidation would make sense

    by felixredux Sep 17, 2014 9:48 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 19, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    I'd think that a clothing/fashion company would be a more likely suitor. As I said in an earlier post, a company like FOSL. I'm not sure how much revenue comes from watches at ZQK, but FOSL's a gorilla in that fashion arena. They have also been dabbling, with little success (I believe.) in clothing. It would be a great acquisition for them. That said, they may have their corporate hands full with trying to compete against the new wrist accessories, i.e. Apple Watch, etc. Fossil has an agreement now with Google to help them develop fashionable designs for cases, bands, buckles, etc., to go with their wrist offerings. No matter what, something has to be done with this company. It's stock has languished for years, especially this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FOSL IS A SELL, DOWNSIDE TARGET $75

    by smallmovesbiggains Sep 10, 2014 11:31 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 12, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    The Apple watch has been priced into FOSL for the past couple of years. Sure, this is as close as it's come to really happening, but it's still not what was factored into the price. After all, the Apple watch is not really a smart watch at all, is it? It's more of a dumb terminal, like old-computer terminals that did not compute on their own, but rather depended on being hooked up to the main computer. It's not really a watch, it's more of a "wrist terminal", and I believe that it will get old, fast as in inconvenient redundancy. Style doesn't answer to convenience. Fossil has great designers, and the market recognizes it. That's why today's biggies, Michael Kors in particular, employ Fossil for their timepieces.
    To some extent, Apple was the victim of other dogs' tails wagging they as the dog. If they weren't competing for technological bragging rights against the big Goo, Samsung, and others, they'd never have wasted their time with the Apple watch's development. It's sad to see this corporate ego competition going on, but these companies are always anxious about getting beat to the punch on something. The Apple watch was a purely defensive play, not a worthy result of the different drum-beat that Jobs used to listen to. What a way to live. I almost feel sorry for those corporate "persons". I do feel for the humans running those companies. The stress must be brutal, as shareholders demand so much, while knowing so little.
    This is not to say that Wall St. won't try to capitalize on a stock that shows some type of vulnerability, as evidenced by the short-side pumpers in evidence here.
    It's the short-pumpers that are (at least spewing) "junk", not Fossil as a company.
    Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    should be an up day tomorrow

    by buffetjr73 Sep 8, 2014 5:20 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 8, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    BTW: I do see that ZQK is carrying some "goodwill" on the books, but this shouldn't be brand related. They didn't buy Roxy, did they? I believe they started the company back in the early nineties, but I could be wrong.

  • Reply to

    should be an up day tomorrow

    by buffetjr73 Sep 8, 2014 5:20 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 8, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    I guess it comes down to how one values a brand name like Quiksilver/Roxy, as it doesn't show up on the balance sheet. It is certainly subjective, and almost impossible to quantify perfectly. There is, however, a lot of value there, and is probably the reason why insiders seem to be holding tightly, despite tough numbers. Their money really is where their mouth is, as evidenced by their stock exercises and lack of significant selling. Based on this alone, I believe a buy-out is possible despite the very weak balance sheet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all Shorts

    by dividendguy Aug 12, 2014 2:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 22, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    I don't think that the shorts haven't given up yet. However, I still think that we're safe over $40 or so, unless the whole market tanks. ORLY's probably a safer play, as it will be harder for smaller shorts to take down. However, DORM has been good to me over the past few years, so my hands will be stronger than normal here. Longs had a decent week here. I hope it continues. As always, time will tell. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    To all Shorts

    by dividendguy Aug 12, 2014 2:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 14, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    DORM has some of the most solid financial numbers of any publicly traded company that I've looked at. The P/E might have been a bit high when it was at $60, but it's worth a lot more than it's trading for now, IMHO. The thin float of the company can make it a bit nerve-wracking at times...like last week. I feel pretty good about the company and its prospects, going forward, so I would not have a weak hand here.

    It is interesting to note that the short interest listed on NASDAQ went from 23 days to cover, to 9 days to cover between mid-July and the end of July. Somebody was confident that the stock would be punished for missing that $.01?! I find it hard to believe that whoever this entity was didn't help it down by massive shorting after the report. I think that we'll be OK from this point on, providing the general market holds up. Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    Have to love it!

    by happyperson_1 Aug 5, 2014 9:47 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 5, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    You're forgetting about the company buying back $millions in shares. It'll be hard to tell which are those buys and which are short-covering. That said, I think we've found our floor above $40. As always, time will tell. Hang on, longs.

PBY
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