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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

skepticpencil 287 posts  |  Last Activity: May 7, 2014 4:24 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2000
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  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil May 7, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Funny how the chart starts heading up with no news. Then two nights ago EA is mentioned in a story on NBR, as being part of a partnership with Comcast or some other cable provider. It sounded good so I looked at the stock yesterday but saw it had already moved so much that I stayed away. Looks like it was a bad move, as the momentum folks have jumped on it. Good luck, longs. It's been a nice run.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by skepticpencil Mar 6, 2014 12:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Apr 29, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    I can't figure out what the shorts see in this stock. It seems that they like working with higher beta stocks. That said, DORM is rather thinly traded, i.e., easier to manipulate with less money. The stock might back-and-fill for the next couple of weeks, as it has that tendency. Or the shorts will feel pressure if a big buyer steps in, and we'll get a nice squeeze. Time will tell. Good luck longs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Apr 16, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    Feathers soothed, ENDP no longer showing as a top-ten holding in the fund. It must have been an algorithmic hiccup.

  • Reply to

    Another one of life's great mysteries.

    by skepticpencil Apr 10, 2014 12:16 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Apr 11, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    Mystery solved...well...sort of. I knew that VSEQX was an actively managed fund. What I didn't know is that they use use quantitative trading, computer model driven, methods. I know realize that even the fund manager probably doesn't know why ENDP is a top ten holding. If asked, he'd probably say, "The algorithm made me do it."

  • For the life of me, I can't figure out why my favorite Vanguard fund has this company in its top 10 holdings. They must know something that I don't , and is not in evidence by looking at the fundamentals, key statistics, etc. I see nothing attractive about this stock. The addition to VSEQX' top ten holdings list seems to have coincided with the top. This stock is hurting what is generally stellar performance by the fund. Oh well, you win some....

  • One reason that I bought VSEQX over the years is because they have a similar investing style to me, but are generally much better at picking and holding the right stocks. However, when I saw that they now had ENDP as a top holding, and I looked into the company's fundamentals, I was a bit floored that the managers at VSEQX would have such a top holding. I almost sold my shares in the fund last week, but didn't. It looks like it was a mistake. Again, what were they thinking? This is a terribly performing stock, and not a strong company from what I can see. Look at it drop....taking VSEQX with it.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by skepticpencil Mar 6, 2014 12:19 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Mar 21, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Well, let's see if we can hold $60 today. Good luck, longs. Zacks just mentioned DORM favorably. That said, much of the short squeeze has been exhausted, with "only" 8 days to cover as of the first of the month. It's probably less now. However, those who were misguided enough to short DORM over the past couple of years may still be misguided enough to add to their positions or enter a new short position. We'll see...I'm still long. DORM has been my best performer over the past few years, FWIW.

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Mar 6, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    According to NASDAQ, as of 2/14 there were 14 days to cover the % of short interest in shares. Since then, the stock is up nearly 14%, and is approaching another big round number. I have to wonder again about whether DORM will generate interest by splitting the stock when it hits, or surpasses $60, which is hopefully later today. Good luck, longs.

  • Pleasant morning seeing DORM open so nicely in the green zone. I hope it holds. Lots of shorts still to be covered, hopefully. Good luck, longs.

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 22, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    Could be. However most of Dorman's products are probably not exposed to design patent liability in the same way as body parts. Of course if the OEM guys have patent protection on utility items, such as those that DORM makes, and DORM doesn't pay them a licensing fee, that could be a problem, IMHO. If this is the case, they could be next.

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 17, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Of course today's action isn't hurting them much, is it? I can't fathom why DORM's board didn't split the stock to take advantage of a stronger market, and perhaps create a bigger float to thwart easy manipulation. ORLY, AZO, PBY, you name it, auto parts companies doing well. Why not DORM? It looks like the shorts must have some bigger money behind them right now.

  • Buy-back of just under 200,000 shares on such a thinly traded stock, that's moderately shorted, can't be good for the shorts. We'll see.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice to hit new 52 week high.

    by skepticpencil Dec 9, 2013 2:39 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Dec 10, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    Maybe it's Zack's followers short-covering, coupled with those who realize that this is a great company, firing on all cylinders, with very strong, consistent fundamentals. Yes, the P/E is fairly high for the sector, but there are few companies that have more solid financials overall. We built a strong launching pad-like base, and will hopefully go big once they finally announce another split. If they wait much longer, they might have to do a 3:1. ;-) Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Dec 9, 2013 2:39 PM Flag

    There seem to be some shorts who have been working to keep the stock price down. It doesn't seem to be working right now, does it? Zack's seems to really have a short-bone to pick with DORM right now. Time will tell how that goes. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    B.Riley & Co. "Sell" and MPAA Road Show.

    by skepticpencil Sep 4, 2013 10:35 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 26, 2013 8:55 AM Flag

    OK, so here we have more proof that it really doesn't matter what I think. Kwazy market!

  • Reply to

    Nice snuff job by analysts

    by gswkool Sep 7, 2013 1:00 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 8, 2013 3:30 PM Flag

    I didn't buy any shares in the $8's, but did in the lower $9's. So far not making a huge difference though. I was alerted to Leapfrog last week, after the announcement that LF's CEO (?) was joining the board at Fossil, a company that I like. FOSL always has an eye for quality that extends to products, design, and people. After looking at LF's financials, there's not a lot to dislike, aside from the fact that, like so many others in this retail space, the bulk of their sales is heavily skewed to the holiday season, etc, or at least the last two calender quarters. That's just the nature of the beast. Good luck, longs.

  • Interesting that the company that essentially downgraded DORM today is doing a "Road Show" with, or to, MPAA, which looks to be competition for DORM. MPAA is up by 6-7% today, the day Riley initiates DORM at "sell". Very fishy smelling "initiation". MPAA has negative ROE, along with having more liabilities than assets. Anyone who sells on that sort of BS is going to be on the losing end.

  • Reply to

    Stock split?

    by skepticpencil Aug 20, 2013 12:27 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 23, 2013 10:03 AM Flag

    Below is a quote from last year, about the rationale for Dorman's stock split at that time. Yes, the stock has doubled since then. Perhaps the board is just going to wait until we reach $60 this time? Or maybe they won't split at all. Who knows? I have a lot of confidence in the company under S. Berman's stewardship, so I won't question the wisdom, regardless. The company is in a great position to continue to reap rewards from the realities of the new economy. Times in which more people cannot afford a new car, and will be fixing their old ones.

    "This stock dividend, the second in our company's history, is intended to improve the liquidity of our common stock thereby making it more attractive to investors. This action reflects our confidence in the future of the company and our ongoing determination to build long-term shareholder value," said Steven Berman, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer."

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Aug 20, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

    While I realize that stock splits, in and of themselves, do not add value for shareholders. However, it does serve to generate interest in a stock, especially with the small investors who might be hesitant to buy $2.00 worth of earnings for $50, rather than $1.00 for $25. It also moves towards the better liquidity required by many large investors. If DORM is going to split at these levels, like it did last year, they should announce the split on a good day in order to avoid the muting effect that the effect good news on down days. JMHO. I appreciate that management may not be inclined to indulge the stock market over such subtleties. That said, I always appreciate appreciation. Great, well run company, regardless.

  • Reply to

    Wind energy business news

    by skepticpencil Aug 1, 2013 12:53 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 12, 2013 11:48 AM Flag

    BTW: Perhaps leaving the wind generation sector was due to the company being rather precariously capitalized, and couldn't afford the risk. But seriously, if you can't withstand a few bad quarters, you shouldn't have been in it in the first place. It was more like a short-term wager. That's worrisome to me. However, since I have so few shares left, it's not that worrisome. Good luck, longs. I hope that management makes better decisions going forward.

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