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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

skepticpencil 343 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 5, 2015 4:02 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Nice quarter for CTB.

    by skepticpencil Aug 6, 2015 5:39 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Oct 5, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Nice volume today, almost double the average. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Bought at $54.09

    by ivy2668 Sep 11, 2015 11:23 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Oct 1, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    You could be right, but before Halloween. Time will tell.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 13, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    While I don't know that other companies actually have "better engineers" than GoPro, I don't know that they don't. And, I would suggest, neither do you. That said, even if it were true, you should realize that they can't just be "better", they have to be a "lot better". That's what brand is all about. GoPro is de-facto standard for personal action cameras, and probably will be for at least the next decade. However, in our bloody technological arenas, anything can happen, and at any time. Investing in tech is risky. GoPro is not exception.
    In light of all of that, I believe that GoPro is a good buy here. Not aggressive, but measured accumulation. I also think if we break the high $34's, short-covering will take the price to $40+ very quickly. Time will tell. Don't bet the farm, but kids' milk-money is fair-game. Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    The GPRO stock collapse will only get worse

    by toddspencerusa Sep 12, 2015 10:17 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Sep 12, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    While there may be something to be said about future limitations based on a sedentary population, there will be plenty of active folks out there using GoPros to capture their own "greatness" for posterity. After all, this is the selfie-generation, isn't it? Gopro is still the de-facto standard for wearable action-cams, and are the ones to beat in this arena. I believe that much of any drop-off in sales revenues has been more than priced into the stock here. I'm a nibbler at this point. Time will tell whether I will get indigestion from these small bites. May either the smartest and/or luckiest man win.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 28, 2015 12:49 AM Flag

    After having bought in at around $14, not very long ago, I got within a hair of buying more in the $7's yesterday. Didn't pull the trigger though. Oh well, at least I might break even soon. $7 was like $3-4 under book value. It's the first time in years that I've seen a Benjamin Graham 50% of book value stock. Congratulations to those who bought on the big drops. Well, at least I didn't sell, right?

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Aug 20, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    With any luck, and a little healthy skepticism, the public will figure out that trusting your data to the nebulous, uncontrollable cloud, is very dangerous. Think Ashley-Madision, right? When people realize the risk they take by handing over their informational lives/data dossiers to imperfect strangers, they'll be back buying flash memory, etc., things that they can control. Until then we'll have volatility up the yin-yang. I think I'll cringe and buy a few more shares this morning.
    The danger is, of course, that the public at large will never figure out the risks associated with the cloud. Not an easy call. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Aug 13, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    In the type of market we've had this year, the best way for the "mob" can make money is to talk their book.

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Aug 13, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Hmm...I didn't realize that there was so much short-interest in ORLY. Otherwise, I probably would have added to my position, despite already holding a decent amount of shares. According to NASDAQ, there were around 8 days to cover about a month back. How many are still short, is anyone's guess, but it's starting to look like a covering rally. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Aug 6, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    That's a bigger beat than I would have thought in my most optimistic moment. I'd think that it would have closed up a bit more on those numbers, but that's what it is to be in a solid stock, with relatively low beta, and good fundamentals. Well done, Cooper Tire.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 23, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    If partially feel your pain. I held a handful of shares, but didn't add to them, despite giving it serious thought today. I'm on a streak, but don't have enough shares to make it too celebratory. GOOG, SNDK, and today AMZN. I'll take it, but would like to have taken a lot more. That's the way it is. Better luck next time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is it going to be $50 or $60 tomorrow

    by quattro_78746 Jul 21, 2015 10:11 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 23, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    I hope you're right about WDC. Another good company with great products. I've got a few shares there anyway. Good luck with that one.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Chart is clear...going to the $60's

    by seven_reader_7 Jun 9, 2015 10:52 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 23, 2015 1:34 AM Flag

    Basically, it is/was the Apple watch that hurt FOSL's share price. Even the public wasn't sure if they wanted a smart-watch or not. Investors' instincts told them to sell in the midst of such uncertainty. So far it's looking like a lot of "not". Apple has been pretty evasive about sales of the watch, and spins a good story. However, the bottom line is that it's not being adopted, at least not quickly, by the public, and Apple is hard-pressed to create demand out of whole cloth. Once the public realizes that they're not going to hang a computer on their wrist, they'll come back to conventional watches.
    I think that FOSL and KORS are good values right now, FWIW. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 22, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    May be thin after hours, but look at GOOG. AH it was up around $65. That was big. However, the next day's close was up $93. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Good luck longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    why it up? anyone

    by willfirst888 Jul 21, 2015 12:18 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 21, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Honestly, and unfortunately, you are probably not so far off there. But don't forget to add companies like ORLY. Joseph Granville warned about the last generals leading the late charge. Different generals, same war. No matter what, you'd best stay with the guys in the officers' club. That, or buy the best of the vanquished and turn off the computer and TV for a couple of years. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 20, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    I seriously doubt that. $30? Maybe. It will be a little harder to find buyers for a while at this level. It'll probably back-and-fill for a while now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Can my luck be any worse?

    by tedallinnby76 Jul 18, 2015 8:33 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 18, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Oh, and by the way, look at the top holdings of the XLK, the technology ETF. Lots of Google, lots of Apple.

  • Reply to

    Can my luck be any worse?

    by tedallinnby76 Jul 18, 2015 8:33 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 18, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    I've felt your pain, believe me. That said, barring financial necessities, I don't know why anyone would sell a stock that was obviously being accumulated for the two weeks prior to reporting earnings. Maybe next time you'll hold on to 1/2 of your shares or something. But we've all done it.

    If it's any consolation, in retrospect, very few had as many shares as they'd like to have had after Friday's opening. I had 2 or 3 buy orders that I canceled after GOOG had moved up $12-17 during the day on Thursday. That's the market. Index fund investing is generally the best idea, as you don't get emotionally involved in individual stock fluctuations on either the buy or sell side. Like golf, it's mostly a mental game. Without a doubt, despite picking good movers now and then, on balance, I'd have been better off had I have invested in something like VOO instead of individual stocks. Best of luck going forward.

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 17, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    I suggest that you take a look at a 5 year chart, comparing GOOG's stock price performance and AAPL's. APPL is really not so put upon, is it? That's the way the market is. It is not perfectly efficient, certainly not in the short-term. Relax and don't worry about the craziness in the market. If you're not one of the few who shorted GOOG, you should be able to chill and wait for APPL to report.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 17, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Short interest is/as just over 2 million shares. With over 8 million shares trading today, I'd say that most sane shorts have already covered. Or maybe they're feeling lucky. No, this is not what luck looks like. 90% of the shorts have probably already been covered, IMHO.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Jul 17, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Nobody said that Apple wasn't a good, and even arguably better value than Google. I just stated that I'd rather be in a stock that has a relatively low P/E, as well as PEG ratio, than the others that are way higher. In fact, I bought more AAPL this morning.
    Right now AAPL has the question mark of the iWatch/Apple-watch and perhaps TV. But still, nobody's knocking Apple here. At least I'm not.

    Sentiment: Hold

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