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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

skepticpencil 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 4:06 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2000
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  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Feb 27, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Lucky guess. My broker's page shows the close at $44.56, not the $43.77 that Yahoo shows, making the gain a hair over 7% for the day. Congrat's longs. Good luck going forward.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • We'll see how she ends, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't over 7% at the rate we're going into closing. New inter-day 52wk high, no matter what. It looks like it's going against anybody short. We'll see.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • skepticpencil skepticpencil Feb 19, 2015 12:54 AM Flag

    Great? I don't know about that, but it shouldn't be a bloodbath. After all, they still have a huge backlog of work. It sounds like the miss, has to do with the different mix of building cars for lease, versus building for sale. This is something that the analysts probably haven't been able to accurately quantify. Management is going to have to determine the best mix of lease versus sale going forward. I'm taking it for granted that demand stays constant or improves, which I believe is the case. Good luck, longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Train explosion news may bode well for ARII

    by skepticpencil Feb 17, 2015 1:59 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Feb 17, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Funny, I saw that after I posted. I cut and pasted what was in the article. Far be it for me to edit the professionals. ;-)

  • The West Virginia train explosion is generating fresh new reports/opinions that the tanker cars that were being used may have been old. If this is true, it may hasten the rush to replace them with newer versions. That's probably what this little pop is about. IMHO.
    From one article:

    "United States Federal Department of transportation is considering tougher safety regulations for railway transport of crude oil, can ignite, causing huge fireballs.

    Government’s response to a series of fiery train crash, would phase out hundreds of thousands of elderly people increased the number of other highly flammable liquids and crude oil tanker in July proposed rules. It is not clear how old tankers in the derailed train."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 27, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    BTW: Check out how Yahoo had the headlines timed. Last week, using the same article, they show two negative pages, thereby driving the stock down. Today they show the last page, of the same article, as the positive story, stock goes up. Nothing suspicious there. (SARCASM)

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 27, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Tough one right now. An article last week served to take it down a bit. Article today serving to bring it up a bit. The buy was this morning when it was at $116 or so. You've got to be nimble, and with deep enough pockets to deal with the volatility. The story's still the same for TNH, it's the outside storytellers that change their tunes according to who they want on the dance floor.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    PPC, JBS's piggy bank

    by snogreen Jan 15, 2015 10:26 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 21, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    I agree that the special dividend is a little odd, considering the minimum they'll have to borrow is a little less than $1 billion to pay it, and that's if they completely deplete their cash and equivalents. I'm guessing that the Brazilian owners are distributing so they can avoid taxation somehow, and some wealthy Brazilians will get their hands on a bunch of US dollars, during a time where it's quite strong. The company will still have decent fundamentals after the SD, but certainly not as good. This does make it obvious that the company feels that it's pretty well saturated its market already, and has no plans on growing through acquisitions at this time. No such thing as a free special dividend. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 20, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Have you compared the 5 year TNH chart to the 5 year UNG chart? If you do, you'll see that the last time natural gas was this low, TNH was double where it is now. 'nuf said.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Still no upgrades. Amazing.

    by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 20, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Still moving like a winner without hype from anywhere = Accumulation (IMHO)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skepticpencil by skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Big boys still seem to be accumulating stocks in companies with stable prospects, and nice dividends. I'm surprised that TNH hasn't been upgraded by any analysts yet, despite moving the way it has in the past few weeks, from the mid-to-high nineties to $124. What other companies have done that without being bought out, or propelled by some other rumor? Not many.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When all is well, MAG is a $60-$80 stock

    by verygoodaccount Nov 24, 2014 7:07 PM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 16, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    I hope that you're right. Funny that Yahoo shows the stock price at $40.65 right now, but my stock account shows it at over $41. Volume number is the same. You've got to watch Yahoo, sometimes I think they have ulterior motives for misinforming. Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    Fertilizer prices up. Nat gas down.

    by mattpco27 Jan 12, 2015 10:18 AM
    skepticpencil skepticpencil Jan 12, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    I agree with your assessment. Last week Yahoo had a survey in which one answer was "I plan on investing in dividend stocks", for safety going forward. I didn't answer because I don't like to tip-off yahoo, who in turn surely sells the data (what the little guy is doing) to big investment houses. However, the trend is that way. TNH has been on my radar for a while. I almost jumped in in the $90's, but had to settle for a small lot at $104. Since then it's been hard to buy, as it just keeps going up. Nothing goes straight up, but this one hasn't hit the analyst upgrade bullhorns, so their bosses are probably still in accumulate mode. Once the upgrade hits, it'll probably be close to a near-term top. Good luck, longs.

PBY
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