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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

skibumdreamer 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 7:36 PM Member since: Sep 10, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Salesforce VC Fund

    by mpareyon69 Sep 8, 2014 10:14 AM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Sep 8, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    Rasta - mparey is only pointing out another completely useless "reaching at straws" press release. CRM jumps at ANY strategic direction that *might* make a great sound bite, who cares if its real. How many in the last month alone? Let's see - CRM is "the leader in wearable glasses work software", great a market that does not exist. They are opening data centers in Canada and spending heavily on PHYSICAL infrastructure...hmmm I thought this was a SOFTWARE company? And now you're excited that they've thrown $100M dollars to an application fund, a little late don't ya think and what's the return on investment? Rasta, CRM is already one big application company, a sales application company. Have you EVER seen a company that pumps out such garbage, and all of this just to KEEP PACE WITH THE QQQs over the past 2+ years, CRM has been a terrible investment based on risk and could get a lot worse, so many AMAZING WONDERFUL tech companies have trounced CRM's performance it's silly. But of course a lot of that gain went straight into Marc's growing pockets.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Sep 8, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    Arbor - listen to Hapi, this guy belongs on ignore for sure. Mytek has proven he is one very sad soul, I feel sorry for him actually. He must have had sand kicked in his face as a kid and now he uses message boards for attention/affirmation. Would like to take a belt to him but those days are gone, sighhhh.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 27, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Post your logic, repeating what ivy league and in cahoots with the company ANALysts say is worthless. Have you ever attended a conference call or a conference with analysts and the company? They fawn over each other, usually the analysts are young and impressionable book smart people but to say they are independent is a lie. Some want the lucrative banking/financing business and others are blinded by the flash, the parties and after hour drinks hob- nobbing with CRM execs, and the endless fancy presentations that never talk about profit. POST your logic, by what measure, ANY measure, would Goldman possibly think this company is worth $77 a share - at that point you'll have a company with well over a $50 BILLION dollar market cap with no core profitability and is always reaching at straws - 5 press releases today alone? Moving into hard asset data centers? That next great thing is always just around the corner for this Amazing profitless company that has done nothing but match the QQQs as the Fed induced stock market rally continues. Sure load up, I hope it hits $77 as I want another short opportunity, just hope you're not the bag holder when the music stops.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 26, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    Go away LOSER. You've pumped CRM for years. using different names, and NEVER with any logic for your position, just bashing others. By the way, your AMAZING. STUPENDOUS stock has done nothing but track the QQQs for years so therefore for any long, a very stupid investment indeed as you would have been much better off and with the QQQ index, much less risky and simply riding the Fed induced bubble - go away.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 26, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    Oh so sad, thought we actually had an intelligent long on the board, I love to converse with intelligent investors as to why anyone would put a nickel in this stock is curious. I'm a CPA with 30 years of experience and a sitting CFO of a major company. And no, for the record, I do not have ANY inside information just love to invest and converse. So you're just a pumper and gambler, GLTA as your money will be gone soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 26, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Another retail investor who does not know how to read financial statements suckered into the vortex of Wall St. crooks, so sad. Please state your position and post it if you dare, also tell me your price target and then tell me your valuation method. Bet you cannot.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Short CRM is back on the table

    by jaldarshan13 Aug 25, 2014 9:08 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 26, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    You'd be wise to listen to jaldar, the air in this balloon will burst one day and that day comes soon. Meanwhile, enjoy your high risk and under-performing asset against the NAS, MB and the greedy cronies at CRM thank you, bag holders and suckers are born every minute.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • CRM losing ground quickly now, the game is up, price target $77, you heard it from the ANALysts so go all in. Buy, buy buy longs cause without earnings who cares just ride the momo train. Meanwhile enjoy this stupendous, best ever, market leader, amazing, wonderful profitless company that has done NOTHING but ride the wave of the QQQs over the last two years, zero outperformance and huge risk, back up the truck longs, its a sure thing. Meanwhile I have some swamp land to sell you, maybe some snake oil?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Sentiments will drive this up

    by itskrazy Aug 23, 2014 1:53 AM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 25, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Valuations are irrational, even the longs admit that, until suddenly one day valuations are reasonable again, and we are much closer to the top than the bottom. Buffet was "vilified" during tech booms like this, "has he lost it?" were the headlines, funny as now he is a hero again, sticking with companies that produce real earnings and dividends mostly. But he's sitting on more cash than ever before, waiting for value again in this inflated market, is he stupid? He would never buy this stock, nor Benjamin Graham and so on.

    The stock will move from being a momo gambling stock to a real investment one day. Not sure when this will happen, maybe the new CFO is an adult as I've heard already that there are plans to trim the excessive greed in the stock option program (which also artificially boosts cash flow) and also plans to slow hiring. WHEN, not if, the top line stops growing so rapidly, the company will have to use real metrics for valuation, and they have a huge hill to climb to do so. If they did not "buy" sales today would you all have such dreamy eyes when you look at Marc and this company, ignoring the many warning signs - we've seen this movie before and it usually does not end well. Meanwhile, all you've bought in this HIGH RISK company is an investment that matches the QQQs over the last two years, foolish to take that kind of risk, or better said, requires faith beyond reason.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The Cash-Flow point is futile

    by mistersavvy Aug 24, 2014 12:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 25, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    Hi Hapi - hope you are well, IMHO you nailed the situation. We have become a nation, and a world, where people think "top-down" policies and more and more government to "control" free markets and free people are necessary. In fact, the obsessive meddling by governments around the world only make a dynamic free enterprise system worse. I lived in France for a time, I know Socialism and we're headed that way for sure. I agree the middle class is hurting, government policy by Democrats no less, have made the rich even richer while the middle class suffers. In Socialism the gap between the elite rich class and the rest of the people is even worse than America, where anyone can still make it.

    Now help wanted signs are popping up everywhere but who wants, or can live on, a minimum wage job? By not working you can earn more from the government (for one example just look at the exploding use of food stamps and those going on disability). I am a businessman but this growing gap between rich and poor disgusts me, one of the reasons I short CRM, a poster child for corporate greed gone wild. Earn your money, don't steal it! And then be a citizen, giving back to your community and those less fortunate. I give back 10% of my annual gross income to charity, the USA would be a different place if we all just cared a little more.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The Cash-Flow point is futile

    by mistersavvy Aug 24, 2014 12:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 25, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    "Cash flow and earnings never move together", "new paradigm" and so on, these are silly phrases uttered by gullible investors as the stock market creates its next bubble, heard the EXACT same thing in 1999. The companies you mentioned, except for AMZN, all were making goo money after more than a decade in business, cash flow and earnings. CRM - nothing. nada zip. In fact what's AMAZING is how they manage to spend every dime of sales growth and more. FB makes money though they are also over-valued. AMZN has a monopolistic position so they are different but I would not buy them either. Sure some companies that have no cash flow or earnings EARLY in their life cycle could be good investments, absolutely. But CRM should be "printing" money by now, always about the future,

    Now, throw in many warning signs such as excessive corporate greed, run away spending, way too many meaningless press releases, consistently over-paying for growth, poor core profitability and a company whose employees have a "maniacal" interest in short term stock moves, well sir you have a recipe for disaster.

    This stupendous company has not outperformed, in fact do a two year chart and compare with the QQQs and you'll find all CRM has done is ride the wave, the QQQs are up about the same. Think about that, the best bull market for tech stocks in more than a decade and despite complicity on Wall St. and with Cramer (is it really legal to have the CEO on your show spouting about how wonderful they are EVERY quarter as earnings are released, yet another oddity). Gamble if you want, do not put Grandma's money in this stock, MB is happy to take from you suckers, it's going to end badly - IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer by skibumdreamer Aug 22, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    OK now let's go further and pretend the $246M in cash flow is real and that the company would never have to spend another dime in Capex or over pay for yet another revenue booster. That's roughly one billion dollars a year, again only if you trust this cash flow is sustainable. I've already shown there is no real growth in cash flow from the prior year. So, $1 billion a year in "free" cash flow against a market capitalization of $37 billion means a pay back WITHOUT any interest of 37 years. If any of you longs this makes sense in an increasingly crowded and competitive landscape, you need a finance lesson. After 10 years this is still a momo stock with no justification of value other than hopium, Please do not put Grandma's money in this stock, buyers you have been warned, meanwhile the complicit ANALsysts are raising targets, the market is run by flash traders, hedgies, and lemmings. Retail guys please be very careful and if you made money today, you won at the Casino but walk away now and find some real value.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer by skibumdreamer Aug 22, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    OK folks, time for a reality check from someone who admittedly lost money today on a short position in CRM, read on if you dare. OK let's ignore the lack of earnings, exploding costs, OK let's applaud the great sales growth...but you cannot hide cash flow. The headline "cash flow up 34% to 246 million". Well first off do you longs realize that fully 142 million of this free cash flow comes from ignoring stock option expense, which increased 29% from last year? Look at the Q folks, you take away increased stock option expense and you take away increased depreciation from last year, the CASH FLOW IS FLAT, NO GROWTH JUST LIKE EARNINGS. The only growth was caused by excessive stock options and increased depreciation from run away spending.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 22, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Good call Hapi, I lost on this short and exited this morning, the blow-hards win today that's for sure. sootagain and people who like him will disappear in the next crash, while you and I Slowboat will still be making money, and make no mistake the bubble is obvious. All this stock has done is follow the QQQs, divergence will come very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Rasta still a bull, well at least you are an intelligent bull. I understand your case..."someday" this company will justify a management made up P/E of 100. Do you think, at the top of the market, with no profit in site and the Fed about to pull supports from this market that a greedy high flyer is the best place for your money? Really? Did you know that despite all the AMAZING and WONDERFUL company this is, all it has done is keep pace with the QQQs, and barely so. Did you know about the hiring freeze? Why are profits coming if gross margin deteriorated once again? Be careful, it's easy to be confident when all your stock has done is rise with the FED induced tide, warning signs abound...one cannot overpay for growth forever.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    I understand your confusion, the answer is simple, a rising tide FED induced bubble has caused companies like this, profitless, grasping at straws, greed gone wild, to simply rise with the tide. I say again to anyone, do a two year chart and compare this AMAZING STUPENDOUS company against the simple QQQs. Guess what, you would have been better off with the index. So ALL this stock has done is ride the wave of the latest bubble and the CRM PR machine has had to work overtime to just keep pace with the QQQs. Does not matter to Marc now does hit, he made it, company never made a dime but is already a multi-billionaire. Not to say MB does not deserve some credit, he would have made a great salesman but as a CEO, well the day of reckoning simply must be coming. Gross margins are down, I hear talk of a hiring freeze, cracks are showing and have been for some time. I think the game is up soon. Yes the stock was over-valued at 36 and so much more so at 55. Fair value, is about $20-$25 a share, by any measure. Janet has hinted rates hikes are coming, bond buying is stopping, let's see how this market does when the FED is done with its artificial and very harmful policies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    I agree that we should not make personal attacks, but you read the articles. CRM's excessive greed (stock options) is above any reasonable measure of any peer group. So far the people who do not know how to read financials say this does not matter, so silly as this tremendous greed/dilution creates extreme shareholder dilution. So you say because he steals from the shareholders and gives a small portion of that to charity he is a good man? Curious to say the least. CRM's parties and hubris is legendary and an indicator, like Tyco, like many other warning signs of a company that cannot get costs under control, and does not seem to care. Europe is the next hot thing, what happened to Japan, remember that was the last big country splash? At least we agree on one thing, a company that cannot generate profit will crash the second the analysts kids see growth slowing...and CRM gave it's first hint of that in this press release, the bloodbath may come as soon as the next Q.

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    OK smart boy, despite all the pump, hubris, greed, Cramer complicity, meaningless press releases, bid splashes, and CRM in general being the most AMAZING WONDERFUL company ever, this POS has done NOTHING but ride the NASDAQ FED induced bubble. Compare a two year chart CRM vs. QQQ, nada, nothing, zero outperformance and huge risk.

    You would have been better off buying the QQQs, less risk and then you would not be contributing to extreme poster child greed of CRM. NO one abuses stock options like CRM, go ahead and buy, Marc needs another party/Mercedes/girlfriend/jet/belt...he thanks you. You're happy now riding the FED bubble on this empty profit company, until the music stops and you find yourself without a chair. Now who needs a lesson on risk and beta and how to really look at a financial statement? Look in the mirror.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    Robyn - bingo! We're in a new paradigm, billionaires and huge market capitalization can be built on hot air and no earnings, none, zip, nada for DECADEs. GAAP loss is huge and the funny thing is, the more dilution the less the GAAP loss looks. My math already shows WHEN they stop pumping the stock and ripping suckers off by replacing compensation with stock options, they will be bankrupt, I'll analyze the quarter cash flow soon as well and put to bed any myth that this company is making "billions" in FCF, what a complete joke. But see this is not new, this is just history repeating itself, people saying fundamentals don't matter. There is a reason Buffet's cash hoard is as high as like "ever" - nothing to buy in the hugely over-priced FED induced bubble.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    skibumdreamer skibumdreamer Aug 21, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    "Huge growth" is mostly acquired and overpaid growth that will end with the next Q, outlook slowing, cash flow not what it seems, GAAP losses huge and no idea when or if they will make an accounting profit, management made-up earnings show 100 P/E. What good is it if I continue to sell my product at a loss? Even If you are a raging bull, where is this company going at a non-GAAP 100 P/E after a decade in business with competition now everywhere? This is not an early life cycle start-up where one might accept 100 P/E and abysmal profitability....I think even the dumb analysts are finally catching on. Yeah sure back up the truck, WHEN sales growth really falls. not if, what happens to this profitless company - well you would have removed any last reason to hold this POS.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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