Considering the dividends I've been paid over the last few years and considering that I've bought more in the 4s and low 5s, I'm fine with holding and am overall in the black. I plan to buy more in the 4s and would love to get more in the 3s if it comes to that. In these days when the dummies at the Fed are hyping negative rates, i'm especially please. So sell sell sell if you're discouraged. I'll be buying buying buying. If all you guys were saying you were optimistic and happy, then I'd be out of here.
EOM - 52 week range 65 to 90 - closed today about 82 - negating what you say - what I am looking for is to allocate 20K to an investment that has a Black Swan's chance of big gain. We've seen the worst of the Black Swan dive: So, already made my investment of 20K for the long term and if many are correct that USO is mainly a trading vehicle - then another allotment of capital to short term trading is also on hand. Thanks again for the great diversity of opinions gleaned from his board. TC
So, given the above assumptions, in two years, an investment today, will be worth half? You say it will be worth zero. If it is worth half because of storage costs, then, given the probability of a reversal to the upside, I would be content with parking some money in USO for the long term. Given the volatility of oil prices over the last few years and given the the desire of the world's oil princes to get the price up, I think USO at these prices is a good bet. Not mortgaging my house. Just making a bet for a strong upside with part of my assets. I appreciate any input. Especially if you can show how, given the assumptions, USO would "lose most of my money". with not chance for a large upswing in 2-3 years.