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Mondelez International, Inc. Message Board

skinz4q 368 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 50 minutes ago Member since: Dec 25, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Buy on bad news – sell on good news

    by dk1949 4 hours ago
    skinz4q skinz4q 2 hours 50 minutes ago Flag

    I agree with only half of what you wrote.... "Buy on bad news." If you're an investor, you should not be thinking of selling.... on good news OR bad news. The biggest mistakes I've made throughout my investing career have almost all been on the sell side. If I had held every stock I ever bought, I'd be a billionaire today. Nearly every stock I ever sold, with only a very few exceptions, has increased astronomically in value. Dr. Frost's track record, as evidenced by his personal wealth, has been phenomenal. Don't try to understand it. Just go along for the ride.

  • End of month, end of quarter, end of year. What's so strange about that? Maybe they should report on Saturday at midnight! No one in his right mind expected positive earnings. The report was better than I thought it would be. This is still a development-stage company. Anyone who doesn't understand that should be buying MRK, PFE, BMY, or the like. By the time OPK shows consistent positive earnings, the stock will be many times the present price. Every pharma and biotech in history showed losses for many years before they achieved earnings. That's the way it works.

  • Just got a big plug on Nightly Business Report on PBS.

  • Reply to

    EARNINGS must SUCK it's TANKING

    by busthercherry 21 hours ago

    As expected, they posted a loss. No surprise at all. This is still a development-stage company and may not show positive earnings for several more years. The focus should be on the long term and the huge potential of the pipeline, especially their prostate cancer screening device 4KScore. When they get insurance coverage for that device, it'll knock the socks off all the doubters. The rest of what they have in the pipeline is okay, but I can't get nearly as excited about it.

  • Not so. Cramer was very clear that OPK was (is) a very speculative investment. CNBC doesn't seem to exercise any real control over what he says. He has been touting OPK, on and off, for a few years, but he's often wishy-washy about it. He likes to play two sides of everything so he can always come back later and say he was right. It's a game he plays to keep his ratings up (and to keep CNBC from booting him off.) I don't watch him anymore because of his constant vacillations. Also, I can't stand people who talk fast, and loud, and wave their arms around. He's a showman, a clown, a buffoon. Occasionally, he (really his writers) come up with a decent recommendation of sorts, but he makes it impossible to really keep score. I strongly believe that Gene Marcial, who writes for Forbes, has a much better record than Cramer. Marcial used to write a weekly column called Inside Wall Street for Businessweek Magazine before Bloomberg bought it. You won't see him on CNBC, but he's extremely well connected and comes up with some spectacular picks. He's not always right, but his record is good. BTW, Marcial also wrote about OPK right after the PFE announcement, and his timing was perfect. He caught it right before the recent big move, so you'd have been in for the move without having to wait several years as with Cramer.

  • Reply to

    JUST SOLD EARNINGS AFTER BELL

    by vscarrella 23 hours ago

    Glad you're out. We don't need nervous-Nellies like you.

  • Reply to

    Earnings ?

    by ravictor2000 Feb 27, 2015 2:14 PM

    Does Opko make an anti-nausea drug? Some of the messages here are making me seriously nauseous. I never saw a message board with more cry-babies. The stock has a straight run from $8.18 in mid-December to a high of $15.23 in two-and-a-half months, and you're all in a panic because it backs off to $14.63??????? What the tuck is wrong with you people??? You're all crazy.

  • Reply to

    Lies, lies, lies

    by miamianne67 Feb 27, 2015 1:37 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 27, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    I've said again and again that it's a waste of time and oxygen to obsess over every little up or down tick. I recommend taking a strong laxative and enjoying the result instead of driving your blood pressure through the roof. OPK has a 14-handle instead of a 15-handle that it had a few days ago. Big deal! Stocks just don't go straight up or down without some side-steps along the way. If you're going to panic at every little jiggle, you'll never make any money. You'll just shorten your life from the stress. RELAX! If you want to panic and run for the hills, go ahead. I assure you that you'll feel a whole lot worse when you see the next big surge up to $20, but you'll be happy for the immediate term. Only total novices and cry-babies get anxious about these small corrections, but I suspect we have a lot of those people in OPK. For those poor souls, I recommend a good mutual fund like the Primecap Odyssey Growth Fund. It's no-load and has a very reasonable management fee and is loaded with biotechs. Past performance has been excellent, and it's highly tax-efficient. If that's too risky for you, just buy VTI. Let someone else do the worrying so you can get on with your life. Stress has been proven to shorten life expectancy substantially, so avoid it.

  • Reply to

    Crude Supply Glut

    by skinz4q Feb 26, 2015 6:39 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 27, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    My strategy has been to put in open buy orders in well under the market, and then just leave them alone. The units sometimes trade pretty wildly thereby giving you the opportunity to pick up bargains when you least expect them.

  • Reply to

    Feb $14 Calls expire today

    by cl124cl Feb 20, 2015 10:21 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 27, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    I'm older than all you guys put together.

  • Reply to

    Price action

    by tmastria Feb 27, 2015 9:04 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 27, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Earnings are due out after the close today (2/27). Conf call Monday (3/2) at 8:30 AM EST. I still expect negative earnings (aka loss), but hopefully might be smaller.

    OPK is still what I view as a "development stage" company, so losses are to be expected.

    A pullback in the stock price would be healthy. I'd definitely be inclined to use the opportunity to buy more. I hate to chase anything that has gone up as much and as fast as OPK has, but I have to take into consideration that the number of available shares keeps shrinking due to heavy insider and institutional buying.

    In July, 1987, I bought 200 shares of a relatively small biotech at $27 ($5400.) By 2000, my original 200 shares had become 9600 shares after multiple splits that were worth around $760,000. The current annual dividend is now many times what I paid for the stock in the first place. I get more than my original investment back every quarter. It's probably too much to expect the same from OPK, but - what the heck? - anything's possible.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Feb 27, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    Farryman (above) says $295, not #$%$295. I was going with what he said about the cost in Spain. But, you're right about the currency differential, although the spread has narrowed substantially from a few years ago. I can remember buying Euros in 2000 at about $0.82U.S. Those days are long gone. I bought $20,000 (on two trips) worth and finally used them up last year. (I go to Europe almost every year.)

  • skinz4q skinz4q Feb 26, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    All medical costs are lower in Europe. That's just the way life works. If the test costs $395 here and $295 in Espania, it probably costs less than a Big Mac in India.

  • The slide in oil today was blamed on a big supply glut, but I have a feeling it's only temporary rather than another big move down in price. Refiners usually make the changeover from heating fuel to gasoline around now, and that means a shutdown of refineries. During that time, they stop buying crude, so the supplies build up. Once the refineries start up again, the price will bounce back. That makes this a good time to be buying pipelines. The unit prices moves in sympathy with crude, but there's no real short-term connection. Gasoline and heating oil have been moving up in price because they're both in short supply due to the shutdowns. The refiners are happy to get more for product already in inventory and be able to buy crude more cheaply while they're shut down. Buy the dip.... you'll be happy you did.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Feb 26, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    I had a talk with my doctor today about this, and he said the big profits will come rolling in only after they get Medicare and Insurance approval for the tests. That's crucial. It's imperative for Opko to get over the insurance hurdle in order for this to really take off. If they can convince Medicare that it will save them money, they'll jump on it. He said Medicare doesn't give a hoot about quality of care, just cost savings. Given that, he said the company would be a huge winner if and when they get over the insurance problems. Personally, I'd gladly pay $400, $500, $600, or whatever they want to avoid another biopsy. If you haven't experienced the pain of 20 needles jabbing into your prostate through your rectal wall, you just don't know what real pain is. The pain plus the possibility of infection, bleeding and all sorts of other problems, makes me more than willing to pay anything to avoid it again. I'd recommend a prostate biopsy as a means of getting terrorists to give up information rather than water boarding, sleep deprivation, cold, heat, stress positions or anything else. 5 or 6 jabs with that needle would be enough to get most of them to start singing like canaries. I was ready to sign over my life's savings if the doctor would just stop. 4KScore is the main reason I own OPK.

  • Reply to

    What's with the over-reacting volatility of EPD?

    by toolbag1223 Feb 11, 2015 11:55 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 26, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Or do what I do.... Let your accountant worry about it.

  • Reply to

    We'd be higher if it wan't for Cramer's SELL comment.

    by johnj93 Feb 26, 2015 12:13 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 26, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Cramer is a total idiot. A professional tout. A buffoon. A worthless #$%$ POS. He switches sides on every stock he ever recommended so often it's impossible to know from one minute to the next what his position really is. He continually obfuscates so he can always go back and say he was right. The last time I heard him, OPK was in the $8s, and he was very luke warm and said "hold." He said he was "sticking with it, for now." If you took that as a definite sell signal, you'd have missed the whole of the recent move. Pay no attention to him if you want to ever make any money. He has a very short term effect on stock prices in either direction, so just ignore him. I can guarantee that Dr. Frost doesn't care one bit about Cramer, and you shouldn't either.

  • Reply to

    It will be a status symbol

    by miamianne67 Feb 25, 2015 3:31 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 25, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    I hope YOU'RE right....Anne

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Serious question

    by jayfeld2 Feb 25, 2015 1:52 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 25, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    There's no way to know that. I strongly suspect that the OPK shorts are fully hedged. They may even be more than 100% hedged, meaning they are making more money on their calls than they're losing on their shorts. If they were stupid enough to be naked short, they'd have been out a long time ago.

  • Reply to

    Serious question

    by jayfeld2 Feb 25, 2015 1:52 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Feb 25, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    I've said here several times that a squeeze is not a certainty by any means. Don't hold your breath waiting for it. Better NOT to have a squeeze than to have it all at once. These shorts are hedged up the whazoo. Short covering is a one-time event that will quickly fade away. Buying by serious, long-term investors is a whole lot better if you want to see a sustained advance. The shorts are covered by calls that offset any rise in the stock price. They can hold out for as long as their calls.

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