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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

skinz4q 258 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2015 12:36 PM Member since: Dec 25, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Takeover???

    by skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:14 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    From 33 to 86 in 5 years is a pathetic return compared to what OPK has done continually for its shareholders. In any case, trying to guess where a stock will be in 5 years is a total waste of time. My criticism of the deal is based entirely on the share prices of the 2 companies when the deal was announced. The thing that really gets me is that many BRLI holders are being convinced that they're getting screwed by OPK because of the propaganda the lawyers are spreading. I strongly believe OPK has far greater growth potential than BRLI, but the 2 companies together enhance the growth potential of BOTH companies combined. If OPK might have been 100 in 5 years, then it might be 200 with BRLI. I agree there's a lot more to the deal than just the current stock price, and I've said as much from the outset. Unfortunately, the BRLI holders are not nearly as enthusiastic. There are many of them who will vote against the deal despite the fact that their stock will probably plunge back down to where it was one week ago if the deal is nixed. I'm long both OPK and BRLI, so I want to see this go through. I bought the BRLI as a way to get more OPK at a wholesale price. I hate paying retail for anything. It's genetic!

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    More employees does not necessarily make a better company. Most companies combine, merge, or whatever you call it, for the purpose of reducing head count. Hopefully, no one loses a job because of this deal, but sometimes it's necessary to improve efficiency. I was a VP of Marketing in a company that merged. We flipped a coin to see who stayed and who walked. I got lucky.... I walked (into a much better position.)

  • Reply to

    Takeover???

    by skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:14 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    Compared to OPK, BRLI was a dog.... fella!!!!

  • skinz4q by skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Both Opko and Bio Ref are stuck is the quagmire of a typical M & A deal. The arbitrageurs are having their fun and making good money. The idiots who haven't got a clue are sitting around complaining bitterly. If this deal were to close right now, today, at the current prices, the BRLI holders would get the equivalent of $44 for each share. BRLI closed the day before the announcement at 32.96. That's a gain of $11. No one knows where each stock will be 6 months from now when the deal finally closes. That's what the stock market is all about. They will probably trade around the same ratio as the present, but the spread will probably shrink. In the event that the deal does not go through, BRLI will probably go back down to around where it was the day before the deal was announced and where it traded for several months prior. They reported earnings well below the consensus expectation, so there's no reason to expect otherwise. BRLI holders who vote against the takeover would be well advised to be careful what they wish for.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    If the deal were to close today, BRLI would be worth over $44. The stock closed the day before the announcement at $32.96. That's a gain of over $11. If this deal falls apart, BRLI will drop like a rock back down to the low 30's where it was on June 3. Be careful what you wish for. VERY careful!

  • Reply to

    Takeover???

    by skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:14 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    I'm long OPK since around 8. I just bought BRLI.... I think it's a steal. But, I still think OPK is overpaying for BRLI given it's mediocre track record. The potential upside is in 4Kscore and the fit with BRLI. The idiotic BRLI holders mostly seem to think they got screwed by this deal. I guess they just don't know simple math.

  • skinz4q by skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    On June 3, OPK closed at $19.12, and BRLI closed at $32.96. On June 4, OPK closed at $16.25, and BRLI closed at $39.60. Presently, OPK is $16, and BRLI is $40.26. Since the announcement of the takeover, BRLI is UP $7.30, and OPK is DOWN $3.12. OPK is paying a huge premium for BRLI, and yet the lawyers are screaming that BRLI got the short end of the stick. In reality, OPK got the shaft! BRLI was a stock with a decidedly mediocre record, at best. OPK was a stock headed for the stratosphere. When I see this kind of thing happening, I know why I'm not a lawyer. How can they do this with a straight face? The OPK holders got raped, and they turn the whole thing on its head.

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    The closing price of OPK on the day before the announcement was $19.12. BRLI closed on that day at $32.96. As I write this, OPK is $16.05. BRLI is presently $40.43. That means BRLI has GAINED $7.47, while OPK has LOST $3.07. That's a huge premium to pay for a company with a very mediocre stock record. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE????? WAKE UP!!!!! The potential benefits of this acquisition are nebulous at best.

  • Reply to

    Deal will Not go through . Sell !

    by msolofl Jun 10, 2015 10:33 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    Good For BRLI, Bad For OPK

    The proposal for OPK to acquire BRLI for 1 share of BRLI to be exchanged for 2.75 shares of OPK is great for Bio Ref Labs shareholders and terrible for Opko shareholders. Look at a chart comparison for the past month, and it becomes obvious which company got the better deal. BRLI shot up to a new all-time high while OPK sold off significantly. BRLI was a very slow growing stock and would still be in the low-30s where it had traded for the past several months just prior to the announcement. The only thing the OPK holders are getting is the potential that a combination of the two companies will be worth more than they are today as separate entities. Just potential. Nothing more. Meanwhile, BRLI holders are getting a stock that is immediately worth much more than what they had. The closing price of OPK on the day before the announcement was $19.12. BRLI closed on that day at $32.96. As I write this, OPK is $16.05. BRLI is presently $40.43. That means BRLI has GAINED $7.47, while OPK has LOST $3.07. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE????? WAKE UP!!!!!

  • The proposal for OPK to acquire BRLI for 1 share of BRLI to be exchanged for 2.75 shares of OPK is great for Bio Ref Labs shareholders and terrible for Opko shareholders. Look at a chart comparison for the past month, and it becomes obvious which company got the better deal. BRLI shot up to a new all-time high while OPK sold off significantly. BRLI was a very slow growing stock and would still be in the low-30s where it had traded for the past several months just prior to the announcement. The only thing the OPK holders are getting is the potential that a combination of the two companies will be worth more than they are today as separate entities. Just potential. Nothing more. Meanwhile, BRLI holders are getting a stock that is immediately worth much more than what they had. The closing price of OPK on the day before the announcement was $19.12. BRLI closed on that day at $32.96. As I write this, OPK is $16.05. BRLI is presently $40.43. That means BRLI has GAINED $7.47, while OPK has LOST $3.07. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE????? WAKE UP!!!!!

  • Reply to

    SPO?

    by mr.phil2u Jun 10, 2015 12:44 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    Is that why MMP is getting killed today?

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    He reports daily on OPK. Why would it take until July 10th? Just curious. Opko is extremely open with all their reporting of SEC filings in a very timely manner. I don't know about Bio Ref. (Never heard of the company before last week.)

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I suspect you're right. Why would he pay retail for OPK when he can buy it wholesale through BRLI?

    That begs the question..... is he now considered an "insider" of Bio Ref? If so, he'd have to report purchases and sales as he now does with OPK.

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Is Frost buying any BRLI? Just wondering.

  • Reply to

    What will happen if deal fails?

    by lilawman Jun 9, 2015 3:04 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 9, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I've been involved in several mergers/takeovers, and the law firms are always there looking for whatever it is that lawyers look for. I'm very confident that the Opko lawyers have crossed every T and dotted every I. Th chances of this acquisition not being completed is just about nil. The Opko vote won't even be close. I don't know about the BRLI vote. It all depends on how much stock is held by the insiders and institutions. Anyway, it's way too soon to start getting nervous. This deal is good for both companies.

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 9, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    All drug companies got their start as money-losing propositions. I bought AMGN in 1987 when they were burning through money at a frantic pace and had yet to launch their first product. They were spending far more money on legal fees on patent litigation than on R&D. I bought REGN when profits were nothing more than a fantasy. Dr. Frost's record of developing companies from scratch speaks for itself.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 8:16 PM Flag

    Ultimately, the value of BRLI is based entirely on what OPK does. The spread will narrow as the buyout nears completion. When the votes are counted, the spread will disappear almost completely. I see no reason for the current spread. A short Opko, long BRLI arbitrage works out to an annualized profit of nearly 20% (assuming that the deal is completed before year-end.) The short will be automatically covered by the BRLI. I see no reason, given the fact that there is no financing contingency, and very little likelihood that the FTC will try to block the deal. As far as I can see, the companies are not competitors.

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    For a great many people, what you did would be the smartest move they could make. As we get older and more risk averse, ETFs (my choice is VTI) are extremely attractive alternatives to individual stocks that are inherently highly dangerous. The older (and smarter) we get, the easier it is to sleep at night with ETFs. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. You have an abundance of good common sense.

  • Reply to

    OPK

    by rpfla Jun 8, 2015 10:17 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    I just bought 1000 BRLI at $42. That will become 2750 OPK at a cost of $15.23/shr.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    No. The OPK shorts are mostly covered by the BRLI longs. The spread is closing a little, but there's still plenty left for the arbs to make a few $$$. My calculator says it looks like about 10% in under 6 months if all goes well.

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