Market getting slammed huge, but OPK is up? I'm confused. Thought OPK would crash with everything else, but I guess that's not the way it works. This is a really bad sign for the shorts.
Message to shorts: Hold tight to your losing positions. Don't cave. Short more if you still have funds available. Ignore those pesky margin calls, and keep right on selling.
The shorts still don't realize the whole game has changed. They've made their money and will now give it all back. They'll all try to run for the exits when it's too late. The train has left the station.
In order for me to participate in the Distribution Re-Investment Program that offers a 5% discount, I was forced to transfer my units to Wells Fargo. My regular broker will do a conventional DRIP but without the 5% discount. There was no charge on either end to transfer my units, but it just occurred to me that the commission and fee to sell through Wells Fargo would come to $975.00 ($15 plus 12¢ per unit) on my 8000 units. My cost to sell through my broker would be a grand total of ZERO, NADA, ZILCH! (My account gives me free commissions on the first 25 trades annually and $2 per trade, regardless of size, thereafter.) Wow!!! I guess the only choice I'll have when I go to sell is to transfer the units back to my regular broker. I know that Fidelity, TDAmeritrade and several other brokers participate in the 5% discount program, but I'm totally satisfied with my present broker and will not change. (It's interesting that Wells Fargo gets to effectively double the commissions they'll collect as a result of the split.)
I'm just wondering whether anyone else has run into this problem.
Cramer is careful to continually obfuscate and equivocate and hedge in such a way as to make it impossible to pin him down to a firm position on any stock he talks about. Just when it seems as if he's made up his mind, he rants off in a different direction. It's one thing one minute and another thing the next. That way he can come back later and say he liked it if it went up and didn't like it if it went down. I heard him clearly make very negative comments about the whole pipeline MLP sector just when it was at the low in mid-October. He used the word "treacherous" repeatedly as he advised staying away until the direction of oil was clear. What does the word treacherous mean to you? He was clear that the whole sector was headed a lot lower if oil went lower. Oil went lower, a lot lower, but most of the pipes have recovered nicely. MMP has gone from the mid-60's to the mid 80's. EPD has gone up about 12% since he issued his "treacherous" warning. If you can decipher a clear, consistent position at any given moment, you're better than I am. He hated JBLU at 9 when I was buying it. He hated PBI at 12 when I was buying it. He hated AA at 8 when I was buying it. If you follow Cramer, my advice is clear. BE CAREFUL! I've made some very good money doing the opposite of what he recommends. I learned my lesson when I bought GOL at 30 on his recommendation. Never again.
Happy New Year.
Okay. So we disagree. The more people who predict $30 oil, the more unlikely your wish will come true. The U.S. cannot export its way to higher oil prices. The more we export, the lower we will drive the world price. The best thing would be to cut back on imports and use U.S. oil for U.S. consumption. Let the Saudis drive down the world price if that's what they want to do. Their goal is to cripple Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, ISIS, and others who want to take their market share.
The article points up the one big concern I have. Otherwise, it's informative and generally very positive.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's great to have company, but in the end it's all about the numbers. The number of shares short. The number of shares held by Dr. Frost. The number of projects in the pipeline. The potential profits. The number of mutual funds and institutions that are turning on to Opko. The upside potential is unlimited, while the downside risk is very limited.
Even if they don't meet the deadline, I'm not concerned. The drug business is full of delays and disappointments; that's the nature of the business. Events or non-events are just opportunities to buy more on the cheap.
I doubt that there are any stops of consequence. Who uses a stop on a $9 stock? Maybe the shorts might use stops, but I doubt they are smart enough to do so. They'd probably let the margin calls stop them out with forced covering instead. Revenues are important, but all drug company investors know that it takes many years to bring new drugs to fruition. With or without revenues, OPK has one huge ace in the hole; Dr. Frost. Unless he's a total idiot, senile, or crazy (all of which I seriously doubt), he seems to have the financial ability to see this thing through to a profitable conclusion. The shorts are now betting against Pfizer's and Dr. Frost's extremely deep pockets, and they're almost sure to come out of this big losers.
There seems to suddenly be a blizzard of "Buy" recommendations on EPD. It has tested the $30 level and held on every occasion. Oil is gyrating within a range that could very well indicate a bottom formation. Prognostications of much cheaper oil are looking more and more likely to be wrong. Those who sold EPD are probably beginning to have second thoughts. The stage is set for an assault on $40, IMO. Other than Cramer, virtually all the recommendations seem to be "Buy." If Cramer is still bearish, that's the best "buy" recommendation of all. (It must be humiliating and embarrassing to be wrong so consistently. Right, Jim?)
OPK is a better buy at $9.80 than it was at $8.20. The main reason is that the shorts are definitely starting to worry mightily about where the top might be. Their problem is that the top could be very substantially higher than where the stock is today, but the bottom can't be below $0. It's a mathematical impossibility. They know the top might be $20, $30, or even $40 given what they have going for them. Realistically, a bottom of $5 would be possible but highly unlikely given the persistent buying by Dr. Frost. I'm beginning to wish I owned more than I already do. I feel an almost overwhelming urge to buy another few thousand shares just to round out my position and beat the mad rush to buy when it breaks above $10. I know I'll be kicking myself when the top gets blown off. This is a rocket ship on the launch pad in the final countdown.
The huge rash of negative posts is a sign that the shorts are getting increasingly desperate. I just hope they don't cover too soon to miss the run-up that's coming. I take these posts as a good omen for the long side. When they stop, I'll start to worry. In the meantime, let the shorts rant all they want. They've gotten very good at brainwashing themselves and each other into believing that the end of times is near.
Sentiment: Strong Buy