Looks to me as if Billy was drinking or snorting something before he wrote his post. It's totally incoherent.
I just found an article, out today, in Forbes by Gene Marcial. For anyone who remembers the old Business Week Magazine, he wrote a weekly column called Inside Wall Street in which he highlighted potential takeover candidates. Based on one of his articles, I bought one of the biggest winners I've ever owned in my life. (It was Conoco, and he was just days ahead of the initial (hostile) bid by Seagram's which started a huge bidding war that drove Conono from about $42 all the way up to about $110 in a matter of about two months. It was eventually taken over by a little chemical company called duPont.) After that column, Gene Marcial became a major force to be reckoned with on Wall Street. His columns became self-fulfilling prophecies from then on. Companies that didn't even know they were being stalked suddenly found themselves the targets of takeover attempts, both hostile and friendly. Seeing this article is a game-changer for me. Gene Marcial is a legend in his own time.
I can't disagree that Immelt has been a big disappointment, but I don't put all the blame on him. The rest of the Board shares at least some of the blame. For example, I consider Andrea Jung to be an incompetent puppet who is totally out of her element on the Board of a company like GE. She destroyed Avon Products, so what skills does she bring to the party? I could go on all day about them, but the results speak for themselves. I also put much of the blame on Jack Welsh for leaving the company in bad shape. He pumped up the stock with smoke and mirrors to the point where it was way overpriced and left Immelt to take the heat for the fall. Welsh was the most over-rated CEO in modern history. IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Synchrony do a lot better than GE once they end the marriage.
My guess is that Dr. Frost will only sell his stake to an acquirer, and that sale will probably be an exchange of shares. That way, he avoids the tax collector until he's ready. He can leave everything to his estate and get a stepped up cost basis thereby avoiding the tax completely (except for the estate tax.) As I said, he's a very astute investor as well as a brilliant businessman. The thing I don't quite understand is how so many shorts can be so willing to risk their money so foolishly. How much can they possibly make on a short? $9/share? If the company goes totally belly-up, the potential gain is nothing compared to the risk on the up-side. They have no guarantee that OPK won't be $50 or $100 by the time there's a takeover. (My crystal ball gets fogged up from the excitement in the room.) Anyway, my stock account was up over $85,000 today, thanks in part to OPK. My mutual fund account is probably going to be up even more. Just in time for Chrissy!
I've seen this pattern before. Small pharma company with promising pipeline forms joint venture with big pharma company with loads of $$$ and marketing clout. Big pharma company thinks, Why share the profits when we can just buy the whole company? It's now clear that Dr. Frost has a close relationship with the folks at Pfizer. It seems obvious to me that Dr. Frost has been positioning OPK as a takeover play. This looks like the first step in that direction. Maybe he knows too much inside information to take a chance of being accused of front-running for buying more OPK stock. He's way too smart to get himself in that SEC trap. He already has a gigundo amount of the stock, so why be greedy? There's a lot more to this than meets the eye. Stay long and stay long and get rich.
Interesting that GE has been getting slammed along with other oil services stocks because of cheap oil. What I don't quite understand is why the rest of the group is having a really good day today, but GE is going absolutely nowhere. Is the re-industrialization of GE going to be like the disastrous foray into the sub-prime mortgage business?
I've been in this game for nearly 60 years (since 1958) and have seen companies come and go, markets soar and plunge, and made just about every mistake imaginable. What you did perfectly fits the mistake I've made most often of all. More than anything else, patience is the key to success. While a 10% gain plus distributions in a year may seem pretty good, but that's not the way to make money. A few years from now after all this current mess is behind us, you'll be kicking yourself for having sold. The taxes you'll owe on your gain is money down the drain. There's no way to ever recoup that. You took the easy way out and are rationalizing it by thinking a gain is better than a loss, so why not take it? I've done that more times than I can count and have been wrong nearly every time. When I've resisted the temptation to sell, and instead tenaciously held on for years or even decades, I've made my big money. Patience, patience, patience. That's what it's all about. Buy good stocks, stay the course, and resist the temptation to sell based on short term emotions, and you'll have found the way to get rich beyond your wildest dreams. Did you ever hear of a guy by the name of Warren Buffett?
The old adage is very true: "Ride your winners, and sell your losers." Once the tax-loss selling is finished, EPD will likely lead the whole group higher. The energy sector has gone through times like this and always come roaring back. EPD is well positioned and financially strong and widely considered to be one of the best managed MLPs.
I'm glad I'm not the only one to have seen this. It's déjà vu all over again. Just bought more EPD at $31 this morning on an open order I entered late last night. I like when this happens. Gives me a chance to steal a bargain.
In this business, everything is on the come. It's all about anticipation, not today. The present price has barely begun to reflect 2017. By 2017, it will start to reflect 2019. That's the way it works. There's bound to be turnover after the pop today, and that's a good thing. I've long suspected that there was a tie in with Pfizer, and this confirms it. Eventually, it wouldn't surprise me if Pfizer were to take over Opko lock, stock and barrel. That's the way this business works.
The strength of today's rebound in AMGN doesn't bode well for the short side. Too soon to tell, but the shakeout may have cleared the way for another nice move higher. Hold your short.... you can always cover at $180. Or $190. Or $200. Don't despair. Your broker will remind you when it's time to come up with more margin.
I just heard that oil is about to soar in price. It's true. The weather in Spain and Italy has ruined much of the olive oil production for this year, and there are no supplies in storage to make up the shortfall. The Italians are looking for a way to relabel crude oil as olive oil and hope no one notices.
First, he was blamed for high gasoline prices. Now, he's being blamed for low gasoline prices. Then, he was blamed for U.S. dependance on foreign oil. Now, he's being blamed for U.S. energy self-reliance. Could it be that a black president can never do anything right? Cheap oil is providing a bigger economic boost than any tax cut ever could. The savings go directly to benefit the vast majority of people and businesses. The only sector that's getting hurt is big oil multinationals and the Koch brothers (along with Russia (Putin), ISIS, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia.) That's only temporary since they have already bought and paid for the federal and state governments that they now own. Cheap oil amounts to nearly a trillion dollars annually in economic stimulus without even a hint of a tax cut. Yes.... nice job Obama. The stock market has made me more money in your 6 years in office than I ever dreamed possible. I made back everything I lost under Bush/Cheney many times over.
MCD is highly unlikely to cut the dividend, IMO. That would ruin their prefect record of consistent increases since they started paying dividends. That's the one thing MCD has going for it. The garbage they call food is unfit to feed a stray, starving dog.
Try as it may, OPK has not been able to penetrate below $8 since May. Since then the lowest it has traded was $8.02 in mid October when the overall market was crashing. The support has been relentless. OPK has all the hallmarks of a stock about to break out in a big way. The shorts could add fuel to the fire once it breaks above $9.50. $10 will be the real test and could mark the beginning of something much bigger. I was a big buyer of LUV at $7/8 and JBLU at $6/7 when they were displaying very similar patterns to OPK now. Relentless accumulation and persistent support finally tipped heavily on the upside. With the healthcare sector having a big move, OPK could be ready to join the party. There's tremendous room for it to catch up from here. Dr. Frost isn't getting any younger, and he's a very shrewd cookie. He didn't get to be a billionaire by making stupid mistakes. The shorts are playing a very dangerous game that could be fatal to their financial well-being.
AMGN has more than enough shares to provide liquidity with about 760 million shares outstanding. BRK.A has 1,260,000 shares outstanding. At $227,739, the lack of liquidity doesn't seem to have hurt the price in the slightest. When AMGN goes over $1000, it might be time for a split. At $170 there's still plenty of shares to go around.