Most of the shorts will be covered as soon as the BioRef deal is concluded. The OPK shorts are mostly BioRef shareholders who shorted OPK against the shares they'll get in exchange. OPK was selling at a significant premium, so it was better for them to short OPK than to sell their BRIL. It'll all come out in the wash when BRLI becomes OPK. Short positions do not have a negative effect on a stock. It's just the opposite. Therefore, why would Dr. Frost want to hurt them? He would accomplish absolutely nothing except to shoot himself in the foot.
BTW, he's not about to sell OPK to anyone, especially at the current price. If OPK were to be sold today, it would be a very clear sign that Dr. Frost has a serious health issue that is probably life-threatening. Let's just hope that is not the case, for his sake and ours.
I'm guessing, but I deduce from your post that you're not happy with the proposed takeover. I posted right after the announcement that I thought Opko was paying too high a price for BioRef. I was shouted down, but I still think they may have overpaid. We don't know yet what the long term result will be, but the short term seems to clearly indicate that I was right. I suspect that many BioRef shareholders shorted OPK which was selling at a hefty premium to BioRef. They'll use the OPK shares that they get in exchange for their BRLI to cover their short positions.... and make a tidy profit. Now that the arbitrage premium has disappeared, we're seeing a truer picture of what the market thinks of the deal. That's the reason I'm less than enthusiastic about the deal and don't think the very near-term outlook for OPK stock price will change by virtue of a YES vote. Dr. Frost is hailed as a visionary, and he may be just that. I fully understand his goals for OPK, and I'm along for the ride. My major concern (which I hope is unfounded) is Dr. Frost's advanced age. Given ten years of good health, he'll likely succeed in making Opko into a world-class pharmaceutical company. There are those on this board who think I'm anti-Frost and anti-Opko; they couldn't be more wrong. I'm not short and never have been (although I'll never make it as a basketball player.)
Lots of good information. Thanks. I predict that the takeover will be approved by a comfortable majority, and that OPK will do absolutely nothing. It may go up or down by a few cents, but that's all. There's no reason for it to suddenly take off like a rocket or to plunge like a lead turd. The market expects a positive vote, so it won't be a surprise to anyone. No surprise = no incentive to buy. A negative outcome will be a total surprise. I'm not clear on what the reaction might be. Probably more confusion than anything else. I suspect that Dr. Frost has taken such a possibility into consideration and has a plan to deal with it. He's too smart and market-savvy to do otherwise. Fear not; the deal will be approved. A year or two from now, it should be a lot higher. That's assuming that nothing untoward happens to Dr. Frost in the meantime, and they get at least one new product approved. An FDA rejection would be catastrophic.
I wish I could share your confidence, but I just don't see it that way. The conclusion of the merger, assuming it passes, will change nothing in the very short term except to quell any uncertainty about the vote. Longer term, Opko has enormous potential. If the pieces fall into place as I hope they will, Opko has virtually unlimited room to grow. My biggest concern is that too much is riding on the shoulders of one very mortal 81-year-old man who is revered and worshiped by his investors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The air passing over the curved, upper surface of the wings creates a partial vacuum that translates into lift. This is called the Bernoulli Principle. Without the Bernoulli Principle, JBLU would fall like a rock. Therefore, you could say that Daniel Bernoulli is holding JBLU up.
Right. He'll be about 111 in 30 years.
I've noticed lately that several insiders have been exercising options that have many years yet to run and selling the stock at present prices. Why would they be doing that if they think the stock is going higher? Something looks very fishy.
Given that all the facts of the merger have been well known for months, what makes you think that the formal conclusion of the merger will change anything? It is what it is, and there's nothing new to add to the value of the combined companies. Do you know something that the rest of us don't? I just don't see anything that will change the fundamental picture, so please explain. Thanks.
The Tumblr article, 3 Anomalies.... is very revealing in many ways. It took me several reads to get my head around what the author says, but it's very scary stuff. It also probably accounts for the big drop today.
If the Tumblr article is correct, the distributions of EPD and most other MLPs might not be nearly as secure as we've been led to believe. It takes some concentration and thought to get through the article, but it's well worth reading (if you have the guts.) It's the ... 3 Anomalies Across... article.
Why does Opko need direct patient contact? What Opko needs is direct contact with doctors. They're the ones who recommend tests and drugs, and the patients nearly always follow their doctors' advice.
Okay. I stand corrected. But whether he did it once, twice or a hundred times is irrelevant. The odds are still the same, but he's a lot older now than he was back then. The odds that he will die are also still the same.... 100%. The only question is whether he will reach his goal before the clock runs out. I'm betting that he'll make it, but I've made some terrible bets in my lifetime. However you want to look at it, OPK is a bigger gamble than most. If you win, you'll win huge. If not, well...... No matter how brilliant the rest of the management team is, it's a simple fact that the overwhelming majority of Opko investors own the stock for one reason: Dr. Philip Frost. Nearly every article I've ever seen written about Opko begins with a biography of Dr. Frost. Dr. Frost and Opko are inextricably linked. It's impossible to talk about one without the other. Opko is Dr. Frost by a different name.
On a fundamental basis, OPK stock is grossly overpriced. What you're buying for $13+ is the FUTURE PROSPECT of a highly profitable company. It's not there..... yet. The hope is that Dr. Frost will live long enough to succeed in growing the company, as he did with Ivax/Teva, into a major player in the pharmaceutical/medical-device/testing industry. It's going to take time, perhaps many years, but the seeds have been sown. If his luck and his health hold out, Opko might someday become another Teva. He did it once, but the question now is whether he can do it again. It's a big gamble. If everything works out as hoped, it will easily go to $200. If not, it will go to $2.
Coal kills thousands of people each year from air pollution, mine accidents, poisoned water, etc. Nat gas will eventually replace coal entirely, and it won't be missed (except by those who work in the coal industry.) I've been investing in alt energy, and so has the oil industry been investing in that group. They see the handwriting on the wall and want to be there before it's too late. If you want to go back to the days of filthy air and acid rain, you're in the minority.
Solyndra got clobbered by the plunging price of solar panels. Did it ever occur to you that the plunging price of solar generation is what will hurt oil? The argument that there is a demand for electricity but no demand for wind power makes no sense since wind power can be used to make electricity. Wind turbines can be erected more cheaply than conventional power plants, and they require no fuel to run them. When tidal turbines kick in, they can generate regardless of the wind..... the tides never stop moving as the wind can stop blowing. There's no spent nuclear fuel to dispose of, no emissions of any kind, and relatively simple maintenance. There's some noise, and they're ugly, but so are all power plants, (especially when they're belching smoke.)
Here's a thought for you to ponder: Virtually everyone who owns OPK is following one man, Dr. Phillip Frost. They pray to him. They light candles to him. They worship him and hang on every word he says. He's 81 years old. No one, not even Dr. Frost, is going to live forever. At his age, he may have another 20 years, or another 20 minutes. This stock will be cut in half if he sneezes. It will go back to $2 if he dies. He may be a brilliant wealth-builder, but he's not immortal. As a shareholder, I hope Dr. Frost lives to a hundred, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.