He reports daily on OPK. Why would it take until July 10th? Just curious. Opko is extremely open with all their reporting of SEC filings in a very timely manner. I don't know about Bio Ref. (Never heard of the company before last week.)
I suspect you're right. Why would he pay retail for OPK when he can buy it wholesale through BRLI?
That begs the question..... is he now considered an "insider" of Bio Ref? If so, he'd have to report purchases and sales as he now does with OPK.
I've been involved in several mergers/takeovers, and the law firms are always there looking for whatever it is that lawyers look for. I'm very confident that the Opko lawyers have crossed every T and dotted every I. Th chances of this acquisition not being completed is just about nil. The Opko vote won't even be close. I don't know about the BRLI vote. It all depends on how much stock is held by the insiders and institutions. Anyway, it's way too soon to start getting nervous. This deal is good for both companies.
All drug companies got their start as money-losing propositions. I bought AMGN in 1987 when they were burning through money at a frantic pace and had yet to launch their first product. They were spending far more money on legal fees on patent litigation than on R&D. I bought REGN when profits were nothing more than a fantasy. Dr. Frost's record of developing companies from scratch speaks for itself.
Ultimately, the value of BRLI is based entirely on what OPK does. The spread will narrow as the buyout nears completion. When the votes are counted, the spread will disappear almost completely. I see no reason for the current spread. A short Opko, long BRLI arbitrage works out to an annualized profit of nearly 20% (assuming that the deal is completed before year-end.) The short will be automatically covered by the BRLI. I see no reason, given the fact that there is no financing contingency, and very little likelihood that the FTC will try to block the deal. As far as I can see, the companies are not competitors.
For a great many people, what you did would be the smartest move they could make. As we get older and more risk averse, ETFs (my choice is VTI) are extremely attractive alternatives to individual stocks that are inherently highly dangerous. The older (and smarter) we get, the easier it is to sleep at night with ETFs. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. You have an abundance of good common sense.
No. The OPK shorts are mostly covered by the BRLI longs. The spread is closing a little, but there's still plenty left for the arbs to make a few $$$. My calculator says it looks like about 10% in under 6 months if all goes well.
This looks like an excellent arb. I don't see anything that endangers the deal from being completed. The spread is already closing a bit, but there's still plenty of $$$ left.
The action today confirms what I was saying here all day on Friday. I can't count the number of times I said "brilliant," and I really think this deal will prove to be just that. It just takes some people longer than others to wake up and understand what is happening. Tune in for the conference call on Thursday at 8:30AM. Both OPK and BRLI are buys here..... just do the simple math to get the better deal at the time. I don't see any regulatory problems with the deal being completed, so I put the odds at around 98%. This seems to be a totally friendly deal that both parties will benefit by. Did you see my comment about the lawyers? (There are too many of them.)
Dilution is not necessarily a bad thing, especially when you're getting excellent value in exchange. In this case, I'd call it a win-win for both companies. That's a lot better than a zero sum gain. The reaction today is exactly what I expected. It takes time for some people to wake up and see the light.
The details of the deal are already public knowledge. If it takes him until Monday to make any comment, he has absolutely no credibility. What did he say Thursday after OPK got creamed? I can't stand to listen to him, so I don't know whether he even mentioned OPK or BRLI. He'll probably hedge and equivocate himself six ways to Sunday and say nothing meaningful.
From NDA to approval to market in 10 months would be a miracle of biblical proportions. Whatever your best guess now, double it to be realistic. Don't forget..... you're dealing with the government!
Re: OPK, I believe that once the number crunchers do their thing, it will become apparent why Frost did the deal with BRLI. He's using the same strategy that nearly all the most successful biotech and pharma companies have used. 4Kscore will probably be a much bigger money-maker than anything else Opko has going for them. Everything else is years down the road and far from certain approval. This moves Opko to the head of the line in prostate diagnostics and gives them the platform they need to control their market. Without BRLI, they would have been just another company trying to peddle their device to the labs, clinics and hospitals. I'm just surprised how few people understand his thinking, but they will very soon.
Rayaldee is so far out in the future it's not even worth thinking about. It will be YEARS before Opko sees any benefit from it. 4Kscore is a much more immediate issue. The BRLI deal indicates that 4Kscore is about to receive Medicare/Insurance coverage in the very near future. If that approval doesn't come, this deal makes no sense. Medicare approval of 4Kscore will be a total game-changer.
By my latest count, there are at least 9 law firms "investigating" the OPK/BRLI deal.
Levi & Korsinsky
Kirby & McInerney
Ryan & Maniskas
Faruqi & Faruqi
This tells me one thing. This country has too many lawyers.