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JetBlue Airways Corporation Message Board

skinz4q 220 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 6:49 PM Member since: Dec 25, 2005
  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    He reports daily on OPK. Why would it take until July 10th? Just curious. Opko is extremely open with all their reporting of SEC filings in a very timely manner. I don't know about Bio Ref. (Never heard of the company before last week.)

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I suspect you're right. Why would he pay retail for OPK when he can buy it wholesale through BRLI?

    That begs the question..... is he now considered an "insider" of Bio Ref? If so, he'd have to report purchases and sales as he now does with OPK.

  • Reply to

    Just a guess

    by chuck_2_2000 Jun 9, 2015 11:32 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Is Frost buying any BRLI? Just wondering.

  • Reply to

    What will happen if deal fails?

    by lilawman Jun 9, 2015 3:04 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 9, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I've been involved in several mergers/takeovers, and the law firms are always there looking for whatever it is that lawyers look for. I'm very confident that the Opko lawyers have crossed every T and dotted every I. Th chances of this acquisition not being completed is just about nil. The Opko vote won't even be close. I don't know about the BRLI vote. It all depends on how much stock is held by the insiders and institutions. Anyway, it's way too soon to start getting nervous. This deal is good for both companies.

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 9, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    All drug companies got their start as money-losing propositions. I bought AMGN in 1987 when they were burning through money at a frantic pace and had yet to launch their first product. They were spending far more money on legal fees on patent litigation than on R&D. I bought REGN when profits were nothing more than a fantasy. Dr. Frost's record of developing companies from scratch speaks for itself.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 8:16 PM Flag

    Ultimately, the value of BRLI is based entirely on what OPK does. The spread will narrow as the buyout nears completion. When the votes are counted, the spread will disappear almost completely. I see no reason for the current spread. A short Opko, long BRLI arbitrage works out to an annualized profit of nearly 20% (assuming that the deal is completed before year-end.) The short will be automatically covered by the BRLI. I see no reason, given the fact that there is no financing contingency, and very little likelihood that the FTC will try to block the deal. As far as I can see, the companies are not competitors.

  • Reply to

    One option - sell BRLI

    by c_lafong Jun 4, 2015 9:28 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    For a great many people, what you did would be the smartest move they could make. As we get older and more risk averse, ETFs (my choice is VTI) are extremely attractive alternatives to individual stocks that are inherently highly dangerous. The older (and smarter) we get, the easier it is to sleep at night with ETFs. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. You have an abundance of good common sense.

  • Reply to

    OPK

    by rpfla Jun 8, 2015 10:17 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    I just bought 1000 BRLI at $42. That will become 2750 OPK at a cost of $15.23/shr.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    No. The OPK shorts are mostly covered by the BRLI longs. The spread is closing a little, but there's still plenty left for the arbs to make a few $$$. My calculator says it looks like about 10% in under 6 months if all goes well.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    This looks like an excellent arb. I don't see anything that endangers the deal from being completed. The spread is already closing a bit, but there's still plenty of $$$ left.

  • Reply to

    OPK

    by rpfla Jun 8, 2015 10:17 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    The action today confirms what I was saying here all day on Friday. I can't count the number of times I said "brilliant," and I really think this deal will prove to be just that. It just takes some people longer than others to wake up and understand what is happening. Tune in for the conference call on Thursday at 8:30AM. Both OPK and BRLI are buys here..... just do the simple math to get the better deal at the time. I don't see any regulatory problems with the deal being completed, so I put the odds at around 98%. This seems to be a totally friendly deal that both parties will benefit by. Did you see my comment about the lawyers? (There are too many of them.)

  • Reply to

    BRLI & 4K Score Sales Start?

    by illkeptsecret Jun 8, 2015 10:21 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    4Kscore will take off when Medicare approves it for coverage. This deal is a signal that that will be very soon.

  • Reply to

    16.66 Per Cent Stock Diution

    by schills23 Jun 8, 2015 10:05 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Dilution is not necessarily a bad thing, especially when you're getting excellent value in exchange. In this case, I'd call it a win-win for both companies. That's a lot better than a zero sum gain. The reaction today is exactly what I expected. It takes time for some people to wake up and see the light.

  • Reply to

    OPK

    by rpfla Jun 8, 2015 10:17 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 8, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    I was buying all day on Friday.

  • Reply to

    What did Cramer say on Friday night?

    by jimbarger666 Jun 5, 2015 6:07 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    The details of the deal are already public knowledge. If it takes him until Monday to make any comment, he has absolutely no credibility. What did he say Thursday after OPK got creamed? I can't stand to listen to him, so I don't know whether he even mentioned OPK or BRLI. He'll probably hedge and equivocate himself six ways to Sunday and say nothing meaningful.

  • Reply to

    RAYALDEE TICK TOCK TICK TOCK

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 5, 2015 12:50 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    From NDA to approval to market in 10 months would be a miracle of biblical proportions. Whatever your best guess now, double it to be realistic. Don't forget..... you're dealing with the government!

  • Reply to

    Strange Action

    by skinz4q May 6, 2015 10:41 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Re: OPK, I believe that once the number crunchers do their thing, it will become apparent why Frost did the deal with BRLI. He's using the same strategy that nearly all the most successful biotech and pharma companies have used. 4Kscore will probably be a much bigger money-maker than anything else Opko has going for them. Everything else is years down the road and far from certain approval. This moves Opko to the head of the line in prostate diagnostics and gives them the platform they need to control their market. Without BRLI, they would have been just another company trying to peddle their device to the labs, clinics and hospitals. I'm just surprised how few people understand his thinking, but they will very soon.

  • Reply to

    Short % of Float (as of May 15, 2015): 65.50%

    by dbrewerm Jun 5, 2015 10:54 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    It's all hedged. Part of the arbitrage. It won't be covered by buying.

  • Reply to

    RAYALDEE TICK TOCK TICK TOCK

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 5, 2015 12:50 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Rayaldee is so far out in the future it's not even worth thinking about. It will be YEARS before Opko sees any benefit from it. 4Kscore is a much more immediate issue. The BRLI deal indicates that 4Kscore is about to receive Medicare/Insurance coverage in the very near future. If that approval doesn't come, this deal makes no sense. Medicare approval of 4Kscore will be a total game-changer.

  • skinz4q by skinz4q Jun 5, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    By my latest count, there are at least 9 law firms "investigating" the OPK/BRLI deal.
    Levi & Korsinsky
    Pomerantz
    Harwood Feffer
    Bower Piven
    Kirby & McInerney
    Ryan & Maniskas
    Powers Taylor
    Willie Brisco
    Faruqi & Faruqi

    This tells me one thing. This country has too many lawyers.

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