Things aren't going to turnaround for a while. I think the stock will cruise between $10-$20 for a few years while all the iron ore and company issues are dealt with. One thing is for sure that the past management is very near sighted. There is no way that Canada will support China's steel making capacity especially when Australia and Brazil are much closer.
Nope sold out a few weeks ago but have been reading this board. It is actually very civil compared to other boards. Given all the economic uncertainty around iron ore this company is a huge sell. Hoping for a bounce is fool's gold. This company is stuck with its international mines. There is no way they find buyers who will pay book value for any of their junky money sucking assets. Also if any of the assets are sold for less than book value this would trigger a goodwill impairment. And it would also go a long way to proving that the book value for this stock is inflated.
If CLF were to sell Australia, Wabush, Chromite project, NA coal, Awaruite project. What do you think the book value of the company would be? I am betting $30 a share. Any other opinions?
Goncalves has repeatedly stated that he would prefer to sell the assets rather than spin them off. The stock is cooked. Everything hinges on Goncalves getting fair value for worthless assets in today's world. This stock is going to take a long time to recover I think. Unless there is a JV for Bloom Lake. That would be a game changer.
But given China's recent slow down and all the new issues with the iron ore industry hoping for a hail mary isn't really a good reason to invest. I wish Goncalves would state what he thinks the fair value of every asset is.
Also I think Bloom Lake will be idled. This news would be best served if it coincided with selling an asset. That way the sales can be used to offset the idling fees. The railroad take and pay contracts are killer and reoccurring fees annually.
Do you know how copper was mined a long time ago? I am fortunate to live near the UP of Michigan. I can stop by Copper Country anytime and get a tour of the Quincy Copper Mine. The mining and the smelting processes are really interesting.
Sorry Bell, "froth floatation" does not destroy the rock it might be a chemical change to the palladium (combining palladium and oxygen) but the rock falls to the bottom. Now given that PAL can only get this chemical separation technique on 80% of the available palladium suggests that the other 20% is in the rock. So if the crusher is able to handle multiple lines and crush rock to multiple sizes it is theoretically possible. Mind where the chemical and physical reactions are happening. In a chemical reaction something new is made. A physical reaction changes only the structure. I would think that an engineer would know the difference between physical and chemical reactions.
Wow are you negative. SWC doesn't have to drill on its property at all and didn't carry out any thorough scientific drill campaign. This company produces nearly identical palladium grades on a quarterly basis. Where do you get your information? Given SWC mined palladium grades volatility per quarter I would think that they have not done much homework at all.
Sorry oracle but I have lost hope. How do you expect an iron ore miner to rise in this kind of environment. Management seems hel bent on not selling anything plus the assets are basically worthless. How much do you think Australia is worth? Given that CLF is making probably $25 a ton on its Australian unit. At 11 mt per year that is about $275 million. Now lets talk about the surplus environment and the low reserves. There is only six years of mine life left. At best CLF will make $1.65 billion if this is not sold. How much do you think someone will pay for this asset. This is a hopeless case. If I were you I would hold until this quarters financials are out then bail. This is not going to $20 soon.
I am sorry to be such a downer I think CLF is a stupendous by capable of giving a $2 dollar dividend but management seems hel bent on not doing anything to alleviate some of that debt.
Sorry to say but if the Chinese housing market continues to slump so will the iron ore demand. This surplus will continue to bring the spot price down. The next 3 years is going to be severe especially if China growth slows down by 1%. There is no country in the world that can pick up that slack in demand. No one else even has the infrastructure to handle that kind of steel making capacity. This stock is really really scary. It is only a wing and a prayer that they make it through untarnished
The reason why a house appreciates after 10 years is because nothing on the property changes. Why do people expect an iron ore mine to appreciate when it was bought less than 10 years ago and the land has lost millions and millions of tons of land on it? Somebody explain this to me.
In the last 5 years CLF has only one asset that has increased its iron ore reserves substantially and that is Bloom Lake.
Of CLF direction in the future. In BAC conversation with Goncalves, it notes that Goncalves is visiting the Canadian operations. The next two weeks I expect there to be news on whether the Bloom Lake operation is either continued, expanded, or idled. Remember if idled, the cost would be near $350 million dollars. Steep to say the least.
Not much to hope for from this company.
Given PAL's quarterly performance it is safe to say that they have mined atleast 26,500 troy ounces of palladium. At an average of $850 that is $22,525,000 at a cash cost of $500 that is $13,250,000. Or earnings of $9,275,000. Plus secondary minerals should put the total over $10 million. Now with one month to go if the palladium prices stays over $850 they will make another $5 million. They are going to smash earnings!
I break it down like this.
Chromite $250 million why simple chromite is a small market and there is no more demand than what is being produced. To add production will reduce the demand. Since there is no existing infrastructure with this asset anything I don't think you can expect much for it. It is in the middle of nowhere.
NA Coal $500 million what did CLF pay for this when it was bought from US Steel? Add in the additional lost reserve tonnage due to sales and this asset is worth less than when it was bought oh and by the way the asset is losing money while the country the asset is in does not want it. There is also a move to use recycled steel and ARC furnaces since natural gas is cheaper and more efficient. Simply stated it is worth what people will pay for it.
Asia/Pacific Iron ore. $1 billion probably less. My question is simple who would take a chance paying top dollar for a mine with 66 million tons of iron ore reserves and a spot price that continually goes lower. If this asset is not sold to a big player but a junior miner expect next to nothing for this thing.
These assets will not be an easy sell in an over supplied environment. Good luck selling these in the first place and secondly you won't get much for them. Maybe $1.75 billion but who knows when someone will buy them.
We can talk about what if all day. But the truth is nothing has changed this year except the iron ore price decreasing 34% with no end in site.
Now CLF is left producing nearly 25 million tons of iron ore that it can only ship 3 quarters out of the year. Plus Bloom Lake still loses money after including debt. So now you only have the US assets paying for everything. Now add in a steadily depreciating spot price and CLF has quite a mountain to climb.
It sounds like hoping to me VIP. Ok, lets assume you are right and CLF is able to sell the chromite, Asia, and NA coal. What do you think fair value is? Australia is the only money producing asset of those three. Plus Australia is making less and less money year over year. NA coal isn't even break even and the chromite is a lost cause. That is another over supplied market. What do you think they will get? 2 billion is optimistic I think.