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sky_walker616 78 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 1:50 PM Member since: Jan 20, 2005
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  • The default event happened on Tuesday. Does ISDA consider "in arrears" a default event?

  • If they are true, and if Greece indeed enters into default, then DB could be adversely affected if it did not hedge its risk in financial derivatives properly. The same can be said to other major global banks.

  • where the sellers of the Greek CDS are obligated to pay?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 15, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    An one-day 10% crash in stock indices looks increasingly possible.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 15, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    The markets could crash 10% in one day when the music stops.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 15, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    The financial markets have been pumped up artificially by "invisible hands". But when the music stops, the markets could crash 10% or 20% in one day.

  • Part I.

    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 11, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Part II.

    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 11, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Things can happen as soon as September 2015.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 11, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    The wider conflicts are coming, if you are not completely ignorant of what is going on.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 11, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    The truth is quite simple, if you pay attention.

  • Part I
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 9, 2015 10:36 PM Flag

    Part II.
    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 9, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 9, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Read and reach your own conclusion.

  • Part I.
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • Part I:
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • Reply to

    "Credit Cycle" Hypothesis

    by sky_walker618 Jun 8, 2015 11:42 AM
    sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 8, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Part II.

    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

  • Usually the inventory recession, or the regular business cycle, was triggered by higher interest rate and falling stock market. But this time, the spontaneous adjustment of the inventory cycle will happen at zero interest rate and all-time-high stock market.

    Does it sound any alarm in your mind??

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jun 4, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    It is not that simple. The UK/US financial elite wanted to destroy EURO as a viable competition to USD as the global reserve currency. They attacked the weakest link -- i.e. Greece.

    Greece is a victim of global power play. I think that it is morally justified for it to default on these massive unjust debt WMD.

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