I think that 10-yr TNOTE rate says that recession and deflationary environment over the next two years is hightly likely.
What you said is correct, only when you say it after you have come out it and learned your lesson. You only achieve the state of no-action after intense actions.
I admit that the views presented on X22 Report are quite bleak, compared with what we usually hear from Federal Reserve officials such as Yellen or Fischer.
But even Yellen and Fischer have acknowledged recently that this current recovery is not strong enough to elevate the US GDP growth onto the long-run sustainable path. What they did not say is that once the asset appreciation trend stops or reverses, the recession will likely come back.
The credit implosion as a result of 2008 financial crisis continues ....
What to do? Federal Reserve is running out of ammunition, and the monetary policy does not solve the fundamental problems. What to do?
Maybe a "false flag" event, and then World War?????
Well, I just try to converge into the middle. Polarity is only an illusion.
If you do not mind, why not create a list, then I will let you know with which I disagree. ;-))
I wish they are wrong.
made the Federal Reserve officials.
But what do you expect from Yellen or Fisher? They have to pump up market expectations in light of continued credit implosion as a result of 2008 financial crisis. If they told you their true rational expectation, then those prediction could become self-fulfilling prophecy.
So try to find the middle ground.
It is really hard to teach a "Constitutional Lawyer" the new trick -- the declining marginal utility of economic sanctions.
What is the Latin words for "marginal utility"? Anyone?
Although the foreign demand helps to firm up the marginal transaction prices on these assets, it is, in my view, the highly leveraged positions taking on by the domestic hedge funds generated most of the demand. As I mentioned earlier, these leveraged positions were mostly financed by the banks and other investment vehicles, which are largely hidden from plain sight. Such ENRON like private financial system have been sanctioned by the government and by the organizations like FASB probably unwittingly, and have been promoted by all level of “grass-root” networks including educational institutions.
I think that it is almost impossible for US government to replicate the private shadowy banking system (i.e. hedge funds, SIVs, etc.) existed before 2007 since it is prohibitively expensive to take the tens of trillion of hidden debt/loss onto government balance sheet. With subdued future investment demand from traditionally current-account-surplus nations such as OPECs, China, Japan, etc., and from badly hurt hedge funds and SIVs, the USD assets could enter into a secular downtrend which would likely last a few more years.
We have now witnessed the first and second stage of this “One-hundred-year flood” — the financial crisis and the economic crisis. I think that the third stage would be the social crisis. The high unemployment and high number of family in financial distress over a long period of time would present a fresh test to the democratic political system.
Even Federal Reserve Yellen and Fisher admitted that the labor market is still in trouble and the growth prospect is bleak. The following is from 2009:
This American financial/economic crisis is the product of many years of excess built up in the global financial system. Partly because USD is the world reserve currency and partly because the Wall Street enjoys dominant position in world financial stage, the entire private financial system, including commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, private equity corps, investment structures such as CDO/CLO, and other SIVs and SPVs, has, during the past twenty-five years, helped to created a false sense of prosperity in America and other developed world by, like a ENRON corp, hiding the loss/debt but showing the profit/wealth.
The persistent demand for USD denominated assets by foreign central banks and domestic non-bank financial institutions such as Insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds has contributed to the appreciation of USD assets. That trend prompted the creations of many loosely regulated domestic speculative institutions such as hedge funds, which, with the tremendous funding from the banks and investment banks, try to take advantage of pricing trend with highly leveraged bet. Such demand from speculative financial institutions and the greater willingness for the banks to lend have further boosted the assets prices and hence the sense of wealth and prosperity among most American consumers and American corporations (higher stock prices, higher housing price, higher commodity prices, higher wage and labor compensations etc.)
What is the alternative? Austerity Programs? Social unrest?
When they on longer can pump up the asset market, the WW3 is likely coming .....
Do not forget that Russia and Ukraine used to be in on country and they were forced to split into two after the fall of USSR in early 1990s. Many Russian probably consider Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine comrades.
So expect the escalation and possible global market crashes.
When we go to watch a magic show, we focus our attention on the Magician's wand. That would bring us into a hypnotic trance.
In the stock market, financial media such as bloomberg and cnbc persuade us to focus on the Federal Reserve's rate decision, so that we are all put into a hypnotic trance.
But the policy rate is already at zero; the Federal Reserve has already carried a $4+ trillion balance sheet; The explicit part of US sovereign debt load is approaching $18 trillion ... I wonder how long that hypnotic trance would last before enough investors wake up and start dumping .....
You have the life to search for the meaning of being a human. That is fun.
On one hand, human is one class of animal. We eat and mate. That is what most of people spend their life on.
On the other hand, human has innate connection to the Source, as a water droplet connects to the vast Ocean. Some people will figure that out in their life time.
So what do I like most about being a human?
All of the above. :-))
The credit implosion in US and EU since 2008 will likely get worse as the Federal Reserve could no longer pump the stock market higher.
US Elite probably can take this opportunity to blame the upcoming recession on Russia, instead of the multi-decade PONZI scheme.
If it is indeed Moon rocks, not a meteorite rock, then it could be brought back by unmanned probes.
We only know it is a space rock, not native to the Earth. Other than that, you believe whatever NASA tells you.
Russian's direct involvement is quite certain, But finding the best timing is a work of art.
Putin can no longer back down. He will have to move forward, no matter he likes or not.
The escalation is rest assured, if you still can use some common knowledge.
The timing is uncertain, but the late August and early September is probably the best time.