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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

sky_walker616 115 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 11:56 AM Member since: Jan 20, 2005
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  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 27, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    This reality is run according to the Universal Laws.
    Last time I checked, fear leads to anger, which in turn leads to hate, and then dark side.
    When you make your enemy in fear, over time, that fear turns into the "dark side", which will bounce back to consume you. That is the Law of Cycle.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 27, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Recently, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end forecast of the yield of 10-yr T Note from 3.0% to 2.5%.
    Did GS get my memo? I have maintained all along that Federal Reserve will not be able to raise rate in this credit cycle, as the credit implosion triggered by 2008 financial crisis still continues.

    But I understand the folks at bond market need to generate fluctuation to make a living. In order to generate market fluctuation, they need to manipulate the expectation of market participants. So the rake-hike speculations are only used to entice the unsuspecting counter parties to take on losing positions in bond markets and Interest Rate Swap market.

    If the artificial manipulation in the bond market is obvious for seasoned investors, then what do you say about the equity market, which might not be so obvious?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 27, 2015 8:03 AM Flag

    It is interesting to see that Goldman Sachs has revised its earlier forecast of yield on 10-yr T Note 3% to 2.5%.
    We all know that Federal Reserve will never raise the rate. But the market keep buzzing with rate hike speculation. Maybe they need to balance the bond market or maybe they need unsuspecting counter parties for the Interest Rate Swap contracts.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 26, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    It is simple physics.
    We all that explosion has tremendous power. But we tend to ignore the fact that the implosion coming after the explosion wields more power.
    The explosion/rapid_expansion phase of the credit cycle is behind us, and we are now at the mercy of the implosion phase of the credit cycle. But the law of physics does not have mercy.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 26, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    It is simple physics.
    We all that explosion has tremendous power. But we tend to ignore the fact that the implosion coming after the explosion wields more power.
    The explosion/rapid_expansion phase of the credit cycle is behind us, and we are now at the mercy of the implosion phase of the credit cycle. But the law of physics does not have mercy.

  • There is no good option to exit the massive monetary accommodation without people's suffering.
    The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies declines inevitably, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner. Bill Gross believes that we have reached the "saturation point".

    One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more than tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.
    Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset prices, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.

    Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely raise the Fed funds rate. Then plays out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But others think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression In both cases, regular people will suffer, but at least they, in the latter case, can blame the suffering on the war, not on the PONZI financial economic system.

    Even if Federal Reserve holds off rate hike and implement instead QE4 by the end of 2015, after seeing deteriorating economic data, it can only postpone the inevitable scenario of 1936/37 but not completely eliminate it. Such scenario, in my view, already exist in the pipeline, as dictated by the inher
    ent kinetic mechanism of the financial economic system, and changes in Monetary policy only shift the timing of its arrival.

  • We would see a 1936/37 kind of deep recession within five years, no matter what the Federal Reserve does next: rate hike or QE4/5, etc. Such outcome is dictated by the inherent kinetic mechanism of the current financial economic system. So it is about law of physics, after all.
    There is no good option to exit the massive monetary accommodation without people's suffering.
    The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies declines inevitably, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner. Bill Gross believes that we have reached the "saturation point".
    One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more than tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.
    Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset prices, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.
    Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely raise the Fed funds rate. Then plays out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But others, including myself, think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression ( for 1/3 of American it is further economic depression.) In both cases, regular people will suffer, but at least they, in the latter case, can blame the suffering on the war and maybe Putin, not on the PONZI financial economic system.
    "Something's gotta give." Even if Federal Reserve holds

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 19, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    That could be an option for a medium size economy. But probably not for US, since it has dominated the world financial system for the past 70 years.
    As we learned from Enron and Madoff case, there could be froth in an entity for very long without people knowing it. However, when the time comes, all hell will break loose.
    I think that "$50-10 Trillion financial derivative market" could be that "hell".

  • without people's suffering.
    The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies declines inevitably, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner. Bill Gross believes that we have reached the "saturation point".

    One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more than tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.

    Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset prices, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.

    Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely. Then plays out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But others, including myself, think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression ( for 1/3 of American it is further economic depression.) In both cases, regular people will suffer, but at least they, in the latter case, can blame the suffering on the war and maybe Putin, not on the PONZI financial economic system.

  • without people's suffering.

    The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies declines inevitably, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner. Bill Gross believes that we have reached the "saturation point".

    One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more than tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.

    Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset prices, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.

    Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely. Then plays out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But others, including myself, think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression ( for 1/3 of American it is further economic depression.) In both cases, regular people will suffer, but at least they, in the latter case, can blame the suffering on the war and maybe Putin, not on the PONZI financial economic system.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 18, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    You are right. The stock market has to continue to climb to make the rate hike a non-issue.
    It is why they are pushing very hard for WW3 with Russia.

  • Reply to

    Simple questions for truth ....

    by sky_walker618 Mar 16, 2015 9:18 AM
    sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 17, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Was the stock market also manipulated and numbers faked?
    We all know that the fraud in Subprime Mortage was rampant during the go-go years of 2002-2007. We know that because it had collapsed. Are there anything else faked but we have not yet known about ??

  • Simple questions for people to ponder ...
    (1) Did NASA really send men to the Moon in 1969? I am not sure because (i) such "miracle" has never happened since 1972, especially after the emergence of HDTV. (ii) NASA sent the human astronaut on the Moon without even field-testing the Lunar Module, which is a big rocket responsible for relaunching the astronauts back to Moon orbit. Would you do that if you were the program director of the Apollo Program?
    (2) What "magic force" brought down the WT7 on 9/11? WT7 was not attacked but collapsed evenly at near "free fall" speeds.
    If you figure out the answers to these questions after some period of critical thinking and research, then you will understand this world better.

    Do you still consider US the "sole superpower" if NASA indeed faked the manned Moon landing in 1969-72, in order to win the space race with Soviet Union, which sent
    (1) first artificial satellite around the Earth
    (2) first human astronaut into Earth orbit
    (3) first unmanned probe orbiting the Moon
    (4) first successful soft-landing by an unmanned probe on the Moon surface?

    This is probably why many major powers on this planet is challenging the Post-WW2 system.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 16, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    Do you still consider US the "sole superpower" if NASA indeed faked the manned Moon landing in 1969-72, in order to win the space race with Soviet, after SU sent
    (1) first artificial satellite around the Earth
    (2) first human astronaut into Earth orbit
    (3) first unmanned probe orbiting the Moon
    (4) first successful soft-landing by an unmanned probe on the Moon surface?

  • Reply to

    Simple questions for truth ....

    by sky_walker618 Mar 16, 2015 9:18 AM
    sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 16, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Everything will be rosy if stock market appreciates 15% per year. But will it last?

  • Simple questions for people to ponder ...
    (1) Did NASA really send men to the Moon in 1969? I am not sure because (i) such "miracle" has never happened since 1972, especially after the emergence of HDTV. (ii) NASA sent the human astronaut on the Moon without even field-testing the Lunar Module, which is a big rocket responsible for relaunching the astronauts back to Moon orbit. Would you do that if you were the program director of the Apollo Program?

    (2) What "magic force" brought down the WT7 on 9/11? WT7 was not attacked but collapsed evenly at near "free fall" speeds.

    If you figure out the answers to these questions after some period of critical thinking and research, then you will understand this world better.

  • sky_walker616 by sky_walker616 Mar 12, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    We are having good news. Yet, it looks like that the institutional investors are selling. Why??

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 11, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    It is only an educated guess. Nobody is sure what would happen in the future.

    If the stock market falls more than 20%, then Federal Reserve might have to do QE4.

  • Reply to

    Could the upcoming WW3 go nuclear??

    by sky_walker618 Mar 3, 2015 9:15 AM
    sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 11, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Deflation is really the threat. Deflation will lead to the slow-motion collapse of the current financial economic system in large part of the world, especially in UK/US, EU, etc, which is built on the foundation of "time value of money". Negative "time value of money" will eventually destroy the entire system through forced social changes, if nothing is done.
    Historically, that will not be the case. They will push for WW3 to shift blame of deflationary depression to some aggressors.

  • Reply to

    iWatch could be Apple's Waterloo ....

    by sky_walker618 Mar 10, 2015 1:49 PM
    sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Mar 11, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I have to charge every 18 hours? The Earth has not finished one rotation yet, Dude!

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