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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

sky_walker616 117 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 54 minutes ago Member since: Jan 20, 2005
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  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Feb 2, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    Now we see new headlines such as "NATO: US must prepare to confront Russia", then we know that the WW3 might be closer than we think.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 29, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    Given the upcoming turmoil in the global financial economic system, the possibility of WW3 is getting real:
    "
    ECB announced QE recently, hoping that it will help to forestall the dramatic slow-down in economic growth in the EU zone. The short-term beneficial effect has already shown up in the EU stock market. But, if you understand what Bill Gross has laid out, such effect will be temporary: it is like giving hormone treatment to a cancer patient -- it does not solve the root-cause of the problem. The same experiment has been conducted in US but failed: the zero-interest-rate and QE4ever have failed to boost the US economy back onto the long-run sustainable growth path.
    So what is next? One of the possibility is wider wars, or possibly WW3. This scenario will be likely, if you start to research on the two decades prior to the WW2 carefully. When the economy is not on good terms, the index of unhappiness of domestic population will likely spike. If such negative sentiment becomes prevalent and left unattended, things can get out hands unexpectedly. So usually the ruling elite will create programs to help to channel the negative sentiment to be subject to controlled release. For an individual, the best way to release stress is exercising; and for a nation, the best release venue is War, an extreme version of exercise. One can argue that the recent global events in 2014 and 2015 have laid out the foundation for such future scenario.
    "

  • In his latest Investment Outlook, Bill Gross pointed out "The good times are over", and explained why more cheap credit cannot anchor the real economic growth onto its long-run sustainable path:
    "If real growth in most developed and highly levered economies cannot be normalized with monetary policy at the zero bound, then investors will ultimately seek alternative havens. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and assets are exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress. As it does, the system delevers, as cash at the core or real assets at the exterior become the more desirable holding. The secular fertilization of credit creation and the wonders of the debt supercycle may cease to work as intended at the zero bound.
    Comprehending (or proving) this can be as frustrating as understanding the differences between Newtonian and quantum physics and the possibility that the same object can be in two places at the same time. Central banks with their historical models do not yet comprehend the impotence of credit creation on the real economy at the zero bound. Increasingly, however, it is becoming obvious that as yields move closer and closer to zero, credit increasingly behaves like cash and loses its multiplicative power of monetary expansion for which the fractional reserve system was designed."

    I think that the key to understand this is to know that the real "money printing" is not done by central banks, but by the banking system, the shadowy banking system, by consumers, by the entrepreneurs, by hedge fund managers, by investment managers such as Bill Gross, etc. In a credit driven economy, the leverage effect of credit extended determines the economic growth. As all these participants in the economy are taking on more and more debt, the marginal utility of new debt/credit declines and will someday reach the "point of saturation", where the risk of unsustainable liabilities outweighs the utility generated by the marginal debt/credit.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 27, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    Given the impending possible slow-motion collapse of the global financial system, the WW3 might be inevitable at this point:
    ECB announced QE on Thursday, hoping that it will help to forestall the dramatic slow-down in economic growth in the EU zone. The short-term beneficial effect has already shown up in the EU stock market. But, if you understand what Bill Gross has laid out, such effect will be temporary: it is like giving hormone treatment to a cancer patient -- it does not solve the root-cause of the problem. The same experiment has been conducted in US but failed: the zero-interest-rate and QE4ever have failed to boost the US economy back onto the long-run sustainable growth path.
    So what is next? One of the possibility is wider wars, or possibly WW3. This scenario will be likely, if you start to research on the two decades prior to the WW2 carefully. When the economy is not on good terms, the index of unhappiness of domestic population will likely spike. If such negative sentiment becomes prevalent and left unattended, things can get out hands unexpectedly. So usually the ruling elite will create programs to help to channel the negative sentiment to be subject to controlled release. For an individual, the best way to release stress is exercising; and for a nation, the best release venue is War, an extreme version of exercise. One can argue that the recent global events in 2014 and 2015 have laid out the foundation for such future scenario.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 25, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    Is Greek situation the last straw that break the #$%$'s back?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 21, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    If Yellowstone super volcano indeed erupts, then the sky in the Northern hemisphere could be blocked by the ash for at least two years. You can imagine what kind of mess that it could cause.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 21, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Study WW2 carefully. Bad economy in Germany contributed to the rise of Hitler, who was really nobody and came out of nowhere. In hindsight, he, and his regime, was designed to destroy both German and Russia.
    I always wonder how could a person like him, not related to Royal family, not a decorated soldier, not a great painter, nor an heir to large inheritance, rose to the power in Germany. How did he have the foresight to establish his own army, the brown shirt, to help him to govern without the consent of the German upper class?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 21, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    Read the book for a few times, then the understanding will sink in automatically.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 21, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Once human is "smart" enough to learn his/her potential to know ALL THAT IS and to be ALL THAT IS, then the world will for sure gets better.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 21, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Study WW2 carefully. Bad economy in Germany contributed to the rise of Hitler, who was really nobody and came out of nowhere. In hindsight, he, and his regime, was designed to destroy both German and Russia.
    I always wonder how could a person like him, who is not related to Royal family, not a decorated soldier, not a great painter, nor an heir to large sum of inheritance, rose to the power in Germany. How did he have the foresight to establish his own army, the brown shirt, to help him to govern without the consent of the German upper class?

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 20, 2015 10:48 PM Flag

    When the average people are brain-washed ( or marinated) fully, then some massive events might take place to be blamed on Russia or ISIL. And the WW3 will ensue:
    Step One:
    The major powers will try to destroy the communication capability in the space on both sides. It will be a very expensive operation but it is necessary to destroy as many as satellites on the lower Earth orbit and Stationary Orbits. Many known and unknown weapon systems will be employed. The good news are that the human casualty will be at minimum.
    Step Two:
    If Step One does not stop the war, the major powers will start to destroy the communication and strategic military targets on the Earth surface with known and unknown weapon systems. That operation could be expand to dual-use civilian communication systems.
    Step Three:
    If Step Two does not stop the war, the major powers will start to attack the strategic targets, such as Three-Gorges Dam in China, and YellowStone National Park in US. If the Yellowstone Super Volcano is induced to erupt, then that would be classified as a global extinction event.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 20, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    As far as I can see into the future, ( I could be wrong), the harder time is yet to come.
    I guess we just have to cope.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 20, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    Let us wait and see whether Prez Obama will start to lay out the ground work of the World War.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 20, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    When the average people are brain-washed ( or marinated) fully, then some massive events might take place to be blamed on Russia or ISIL. And the WW3 will ensue:
    Step One:
    The major powers will try to destroy the communication capability in the space on both sides. It will be a very expensive operation but it is necessary to destroy as many as satellites on the lower Earth orbit and Stationary Orbits. Many known and unknown weapon systems will be employed. The good news are that the human casualty will be at minimum.

    Step Two:
    If Step One does not stop the war, the major powers will start to destroy the communication and strategic military targets on the Earth surface with known and unknown weapon systems. That operation could be expand to dual-use civilian communication systems.

    Step Three:
    If Step Two does not stop the war, the major powers will start to attack the strategic targets, such as Three-Gorges Dam in China, and YellowStone National Park in US. If the Yellowstone Super Volcano is induced to erupt, then that would be classified as a global extinction event.

  • I think that all the noises, such as ISIL, EBOLA, Terrorism, etc., are designed to distract the average people from the real problem: impending slow-motion collapse of the global financial system. In the end, the WW3 will be provoked, as it was during WW2.

    Here is the comment made by the legendary fixed-income investment manager Bill Gross in his latest Investment Outlook:
    "...
    If real growth in most developed and highly levered economies cannot be normalized with monetary policy at the zero bound, then investors will ultimately seek alternative havens. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and assets are exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress. As it does, the system delevers, as cash at the core or real assets at the exterior become the more desirable holding. The secular fertilization of credit creation and the wonders of the debt supercycle may cease to work as intended at the zero bound.
    Comprehending (or proving) this can be as frustrating as understanding the differences between Newtonian and quantum physics and the possibility that the same object can be in two places at the same time. Central banks with their historical models do not yet comprehend the impotence of credit creation on the real economy at the zero bound. Increasingly, however, it is becoming obvious that as yields move closer and closer to zero, credit increasingly behaves like cash and loses its multiplicative power of monetary expansion for which the fractional reserve system was designed.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 16, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    The enhanced market volatility is likely caused by these icebergs still hiding under the surface of the water:
    "
    The wild card is the oil related derivatives. If the oil stays below $60 or goes even lower, toward single digit, then unpleasant surprise might emerge out of the City of London and the Wall Street. As all the financial markets are connected, especially through the over-the-counter derivative markets, the heightened risk in a few hundreds of billions worth of oil related derivatives could easily be translated into the heightened risk in tens of trillions worth of derivatives indirectly linked to the oil prices, probably through highly leveraged "hedging positions" created by the major hedge funds. Such unwinding of financial system, if there is a unwinding, could be even more ugly than the subprime mess in 2008, partially due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has already carried $4 trillion on its balancesheet and US Sovereign debt load has reached $18 trillion as the result of the previous financial crisis. And its negative impact on the global economic growth will be immediate and will exacerbate the already difficult capital/investment situation in the oil and related industries.
    "

  • when many Wall Street professionals were seeing the incoming credit crunch and tried to liquidate their leveraged positions financial derivatives and in bank stocks.

    Even a guest on CNBC today was talking about the potential failure of banks due to the recent turmoil in the oil prices and currency market. But the trading desk usually hide the losses for as long as they could. And the news will come out only they could no longer hide their losses, as in Lehman's case.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 14, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    Oil price could go lower, probably to single digit, if the following knowledge spills into the public consciousness:
    "Alchemical Manual for this Millennium Vol 1 and 2" by Aaity Olson
    It is downloadable for free online.

  • sky_walker616 by sky_walker616 Jan 14, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    There is no significant loss associated with crash in oil prices? No loss in financial derivatives, such commodity future contracts, interest rate swap, credit default swap on high yield bond, on sovereign bonds with concentrated oil exposure, on corporate bonds related to oil drilling/refinery/distribution/service and alternative energy companies???
    Are we fools? Or somebody is a liar??

  • short-term, and long-term, if we still have the luxury of the long-term. :-))
    Even with $55 (West Texas quote) oil, the damage is already done to the global economy. According to recent research report by Goldman Sachs, a $70 oil price might mean 30% cut in expenses in the oil industry, and almost $1 trillion investment could be at risk. Oil producers to lose $1tn if price below $60 – Goldman Sachs. Although such trend might have great impact on the global economic growth, it is a long-term effect since it takes very long time for businesses to make adjustment in the oil industry.

    But the wild card is the oil related derivatives. If the oil stays below $60 or goes even lower, toward single digit, then unpleasant surprise might emerge out of the City of London and the Wall Street. As all the financial markets are connected, especially through the over-the-counter derivative markets, the heightened risk in a few hundreds of billions worth of oil related derivatives could easily be translated into the heightened risk in tens of trillions worth of derivatives indirectly linked to the oil prices, probably through highly leveraged "hedging positions" created by the major hedge funds. Such unwinding of financial system, if there is a unwinding, could be even more ugly than the subprime mess in 2008, partially due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has already carried $4 trillion on its balancesheet and US Sovereign debt load has reached $18 trillion as the result of the previous financial crisis. And its negative impact on the global economic growth will be immediate and will exacerbate the already difficult capital/investment situation in the oil and related industries.

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