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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

sky_walker616 78 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 1:50 PM Member since: Jan 20, 2005
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  • With the emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the proposed BRICS Development Bank, the dominance of US Dollar and the dominance of Bretton Wood institutions such as IMF and World Bank are greatly challenged. Many observers believe that such change will, over time, bring the end of Bretton Wood II: the US dollar will be just one of the basket of global reserve currencies to be used for pricing oil and other commodities, for international trade of goods and services, for international banking settlement, etc.

    This transition might have limited negative impact for a medium sized country. But for US, which have dominated the world financial/economic system for almost seventy years, this shift could be proven to be disastrous. I suspect that, given the rampant deregulation and the lack of true governmental oversight during the past twenty years, the financial industry has likely followed the business model of Enron Corp and Madoff Co. such that massive losses and debt are hidden off-balancesheet and the profit and prosperity have been inflated. Many believe that the unregulated financial derivative market is acting as the "special purpose vehicles" for the banking system and the shadowy banking system to manage the public's perceptions. Things would have gone well, if the Bretton Wood II system became the permanent governing system on this planet. However, the tide has turned and the dominance weakened. The next shoe to drop could be Saudi Arabia's announcement of pricing oil in a basket of global global currencies, instead of solely in US dollar. Such announcement, if indeed happens, could cause tremendous volatility in the global equity and derivative markets.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 7, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    The latest approved founding members of AIIB includes Iran. Just in time after reaching the agreement in the 6+1 talk.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 8, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Many believed that WW2 was designed to give the chance to USA to lead the civilization on this planet to the next level. But apparently the great opportunities have been squandered. USA has been on a decline path even since 9/11.
    Things could get heated up over the next several years.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 8, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    Interestingly, IRAN is now a founding member of the AIIB.
    Among the world economic powers, only US and Japan are still reluctant to join. We know Japan is a dog. But sometimes the dog might bite the hand of its master.

  • It is hard to know for sure. However, it is strange that nothing like that had happened since 1973. One would assume that the technology in space and semi-conductors has advanced more than 100 times since then. What I find quite revealing is that NASA had never field-tested the Lunar Module on the Moon surface before sending live astronauts. The Lunar Module is a big rocket responsible to relaunch the landed astronauts back to the Lunar Orbit.
    Some people suspect that the current "One-Way Mission To Mars" is another hoax, because there is no proof that human, in this Carbon and H2O organic body, can survive the space travel outside of the Earth orbit, if we indeed did not reach Moon.

    What a pharting joke!

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 8, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    Is the recent isolation of US in AIIB an accident?

    Probably not. China has been sending probes to the Moon during recent years. I guess that they probably gathered enough positive evidences to show that NASA's "Manned Moon Landing" was just a fraud. That is enough to burst the bubble of "super power" in their minds. So they start to challenge the world order dominated by US since WW2.

    If "manned Moon landing" is indeed a fraud, then you might wonder what other gigantic frauds have been perpetrated since then?? One of the candidates could be the "financial derivative market" (Interest Rate Swaps, Credit Default Swaps, CDO, CLO, Commodity Futures, Credit Linked Notes, etc.) which is not regulated by any sovereign government and has a notional value in excess of $100 trillion dollars.

  • People tend to make this too complicated, perhaps to justify the $50 million annual pay package.

    In reality, it is quite. We are still in the "bust" phase of the multi-decade credit cycle. If the stock market continue to climb at an annual rate of 15%, then it is possible for Fed to start rate hike later this year. But if the stock market level or even fall, then GDP growth will gravitate toward zero, and Fed cannot hike the rate.

    Also bear in that it is the real interest rate that matters. If we have entered into a deflationary environment, as argued by Bill Gross and Ray Dalio, then the real interest rate would have been higher enough so that Fed's hiking the nominal fed funds is no longer warranted.

    I wonder why CNBC did not explain this to you.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 8, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Agree.
    Life is a stage. We are all actors. We perform to the best of our perceived ability.

    "Life does not have intrinsic meaning", unless you give some to it.

  • What recovery??
    If the stock market stops to appreciate, the US GDP growth will stall.
    If the stock market crashes, then deep recession like the one in 1937, is very much on the plate.

  • It predicts sometimes in the future, the federal text book will be revised to reflect the truth about "Manned Moon Landing".

    It is hard to know for sure. However, it is strange that nothing like that had happened since 1973. One would assume that the technology in space and semi-conductors has advanced more than 100 times since then. What I find quite revealing is that NASA had never field-tested the Lunar Module on the Moon surface before sending live astronauts. The Lunar Module is a big rocket responsible to relaunch the landed astronauts back to the Lunar Orbit.
    Some people suspect that the current "One-Way Mission To Mars" is another hoax, because there is no proof that human, in this Carbon and H2O organic body, can survive the space travel outside of the Earth orbit, if we indeed did not reach Moon.

    What a pharting joke!

  • I recall many years ago in the Enron fraud trial, CEO Jeff Skilling revealed that, like Enron, GE also has thousand of "special purpose entities" to help to manage or smooth out the reported earning. The only difference is that Enron blew up after the price of optic fiber crashed more than 90%.

    Interestingly, the standard accounting rules indeed allow big corporations such as Enron and GE not to consolidate the asset/liability on its "special purpose entities" as long as the outside investors' interest exceeds 3% of the total value of the SPE. 3%? Instead of the more logical 51%?

    Why does GE see the need to drop its financing business now? Maybe it forecasts another more severe financial crisis and it wants to avoid the same mistake that Enron has made.

  • another 10% to 15%, given the already sluggish economic growth. It is a quid-pro-quo. Unfortunately, the wealth effect from stock price appreciation is the last resort to prevent us from experiencing the inevitable "deep recession" as the result of "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    Will two or three 25pbs hike in Fed funds rate have big impact on the current state of economy? Not much as long as the stock holds up. Then why people are talking about rate hike all the time?

    I think that the Wall Street needs demand for the "pay fixed" side of Interest Rate Swap contracts. The "payfixed" party gets profit when the interest rate actually rises. But we all know the distinct feature of the upcoming credit "implosion" is negative interest rate.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 10, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    So expect the stock market to continue to climb if you believe that Federal Reserve wants to raise the rate.

  • another 10% to 15%, given the already sluggish economic growth. It sounds like a quid-pro-quo. And it is.
    Unfortunately, the wealth effect from stock price appreciation is the last resort to prevent us from experiencing the inevitable "deep recession" as the result of "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    Will two or three 25pbs hike in Fed funds rate have big impact on the current state of economy? Not much as long as the stock holds up. Then why people are talking about rate hike all the time?

    I think that the Wall Street needs demand for the "pay fixed" side of Interest Rate Swap contracts. The "payfixed" party gets profit when the interest rate actually rises. But we all know the distinct feature of the upcoming credit "implosion" is negative interest rate.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 10, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned about 1937 like deep recession.
    Well, it is already in the pipeline. The higher the stock market climb, the deeper the inevitable recession will be. Go figure.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 13, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    It is obvious that the stock market is no longer a "normal" market. It has become a "policy" market.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 13, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    But they are not certain about the final outcome of WW3, as many major powers in thew world have already possessed the technologies to turn a planet into another astral belt. :-))

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 13, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    Because you watched on the TV, or because such claim is backed by the full faith of United States Government?

    Use your own critical thinking to figure the answer, instead of believing whatever you are told.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Apr 13, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    In my view, the "landing on the Moon" part is a hoax. The rest of the Apollo program might be legit. You and your family might work on part of the program, it does not mean you have information on whether the "manned landing on the Moon" occurred. You cannot even prove that it is safe for human to travel outside of the Earth orbit because it has never happened since 1973, by NASA or by space agencies of other countries on this planet.

    Maybe I should rephrase: Men have never landed on the Moon.

  • He was holding a sign -- "Social Justice". I guess he is one of those 1/3 of American who have never experienced the miraculous economic recovery since 2009.

    I could not recall any of similar incidence in front of the Congress during the past few decades. Maybe people are getting desperate financially.

    It does not take a genius to imagine how things could transpire once we enter "deep recession" over the next few years.

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