that the recent growth is largely based on the inflation of asset bubble. Since the asset bubble cannot continue indefinitely, then two consecutive quarters of GDP growth, the definition of recession, could be just a few quarters away.
Will it be a small recession or full-blown economic depression? It will depend on Fed's ability to further inflate the various asset bubbles from these already elevated level. Good luck! ;-))
A wider conflict might be even better.
Then you wonder who is the main instigator of the Ukrainian crisis. Putin?
Usually market tanks in late session after good employment news. Will today be an exception?
That is over 33% discount. I have never expected such great price reduction.
At this price, I will choose Apple over $150 Androit devices.
The selling pressure is clear and present. The only question is how long such trend will last.
The biggest victim of Ukraine Crisis is not Russia, because it has China to back it up. It is the EU who will suffer the most. That scenario, if realized, might force Germany, the 2nd grade citizen in the alliance led by "Five Eye Core Countries", to break away from the subjugation of US imposed after WW 2.
Here is the math about the political calculation if illegal immigration:
Let us assume that there are 10 million people. By making them legal, they are eligible to federal and state benefits such as food stamp, medicaid, housing subsidy, school, healthcare etc. Let us further assume that none of them work and each receive average annual benefit of $10 K.
Impact on Debt:
$10,000 x 10 million = $100 billion
Impact on GDP:
$100 billion x multiplier, say 5 = $500 billion
The trick is that there is a multiplier effect if they spend all the allowance on goods and services, not saving them. $10 K is just a small estimate. In reality, that number could be lower or higher depending on individual's situation. The downside is that such boosting effect on GDP will be front-loaded.
US is so blessed so that it does not need to engage into such murky business in order to boost GDP. It can simply legalize the tens of millions of undocumented immigrants and make them eligible for federal and state benefit.
Sure, such move will add onto the budget deficit and sovereign debt load. But the trick is that such measure can boost the GDP growth, at least in the near term, more than it adds into the debt.
It increasingly looks like that this donkey is running out of tricks. Soon .....
Distinctively higher volume today ... Maybe the institutional investors are selling?
Maybe the CFO in today's conference hinted the possibility of more-than-expected revenue reduction for Q2 due to volatility?
The old figure is 20% reduction in trading revenue. I wonder how much now.
That is more than 33% discount.
Let the price war, with Androit, begin!
Get your own copy, unless you believe that the discount will become deeper and deeper in order to drive sales.
It is time for Apple to make its products affordable to the mass market.