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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

sky_walker616 115 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 11:56 AM Member since: Jan 20, 2005
  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 8, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    This is bigger than where the stock market would be next.
    I agree though that everything will be fine if only the stock market can jump 20% per year. But the marginal utility of each of these 20% jumps will decline over time. Probably five years from now, we will talk about the "saturation point" of equity appreciation.
    The question is what then, what happen after that??

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 8, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    I am not an advocate the Gold-Standard system. Apparently, the current "financial economy" did lots of good. But all good things come to an end. We only hope that this is not the END, i.e. they will figure something out to solve the inevitable slow collapse in the credit ( such as bank bail-in, cut in pension promises, etc) and prevent wide spread discontent and social unrest.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 8, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    But why cannot more cheap credit anchor the real economic growth onto its long-run sustainable path? I think that this question should be asked by all the current and future practitioners in the financial industry.

    I think that the key to understand the "saturation point" is to know that the real "money printing" is not done by central banks, but by the banking system, the shadowy banking system, by consumers, by the entrepreneurs, by hedge fund managers, by investment managers such as Bill Gross, etc. In a credit driven economy, the leverage effect of credit extended determines the economic growth. As all these participants in the economy are taking on more and more debt, the marginal utility of new debt/credit declines and will someday reach the "point of saturation", where the risk of unsustainable liabilities outweighs the utility generated by the marginal debt/credit.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 7, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    But why cannot more cheap credit anchor the real economic growth onto its long-run sustainable path? I think that this question should be asked by all the current and future practitioners in the financial industry.

    I think that the key to understand the "saturation point" is to know that the real "money printing" is not done by central banks, but by the banking system, the shadowy banking system, by consumers, by the entrepreneurs, by hedge fund managers, by investment managers such as Bill Gross, etc. In a credit driven economy, the leverage effect of credit extended determines the economic growth. As all these participants in the economy are taking on more and more debt, the marginal utility of new debt/credit declines and will someday reach the "point of saturation", where the risk of unsustainable liabilities outweighs the utility generated by the marginal debt/credit.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 7, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Believe or not, according to this book, you, or I, can fly, if our desire is strong enough. You might laugh off about this suggestion. But after reading this book, you will understand it is possible to float up in the air.
    Maybe you cannot do the "miracle", but at least you know the "science" behind it. :-))

  • He speaks of truth as he sees it. He has called the "bluff" of Federal Reserve many times during the past few years. Check out his latest Investment Outlook.
    "....
    If real growth in most developed and highly levered economies cannot be normalized with monetary policy at the zero bound, then investors will ultimately seek alternative havens. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and assets are exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress. As it does, the system delevers, as cash at the core or real assets at the exterior become the more desirable holding. The secular fertilization of credit creation and the wonders of the debt supercycle may cease to work as intended at the zero bound.

    Comprehending (or proving) this can be as frustrating as understanding the differences between Newtonian and quantum physics and the possibility that the same object can be in two places at the same time. Central banks with their historical models do not yet comprehend the impotence of credit creation on the real economy at the zero bound. Increasingly, however, it is becoming obvious that as yields move closer and closer to zero, credit increasingly behaves like cash and loses its multiplicative power of monetary expansion for which the fractional reserve system was designed. .....
    "

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 6, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Bill Gross tells the truth as he sees it, a rare trait on the Wall Street. When the Federal Reserve pretended that they planned to hike the rate, Bill called the "bluff". Maybe that is why some people hate him.

    The Federal Reserve must convince many financial market participants that the rates would be higher to avert the bleak future of continued deflationary environment. Most of Wall Street pros played along, although they knew that it is just phantasy. But Bill Gross resisted by telling the truth.

    This giant magic PONZI game will not last long with people with independent minds, such as Bill Gross.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 6, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    I do not wish for anything. I only tell the truth as I see it.
    Even if it happens as I see it, it is because the game is set up that way. Apparently the resulted dire consequences should be already part of the grand calculation. :-))

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 6, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    Crash in oil prices is only the first stage. The 2nd stage is the crash in the financial derivative markets tied to oil prices.
    "
    But the wild card is the oil related derivatives. If the oil stays below $60 or goes even lower, toward single digit, then unpleasant surprise might emerge out of the City of London and the Wall Street. As all the financial markets are connected, especially through the over-the-counter derivative markets, the heightened risk in a few hundreds of billions worth of oil related derivatives could easily be translated into the heightened risk in tens of trillions worth of derivatives indirectly linked to the oil prices, probably through highly leveraged "hedging positions" created by the major hedge funds. Such unwinding of financial system, if there is a unwinding, could be even more ugly than the subprime mess in 2008, partially due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has already carried $4 trillion on its balancesheet and US Sovereign debt load has reached $18 trillion as the result of the previous financial crisis. And its negative impact on the global economic growth will be immediate and will exacerbate the already difficult capital/investment situation in the oil and related industries.
    "

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 5, 2015 11:44 PM Flag

    Even with $55 (West Texas quote) oil, the damage is already done to the global economy. According to recent research report by Goldman Sachs, a $70 oil price might mean 30% cut in expenses in the oil industry, and almost $1 trillion investment could be at risk. Oil producers to lose $1tn if price below $60 – Goldman Sachs. Although such trend might have great impact on the global economic growth, it is a long-term effect since it takes very long time for businesses to make adjustment in the oil industry.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 4, 2015 10:27 PM Flag

    Part II
    Is it possible to create a portal to retrieve the energy in an exponential or recursive manner? Many inventors are trying different methods but so far nothing can work reliably. For example, one of prominent researcher mentioned that, the miniature reactor in one of his project imploded and turned into powder. Sounds impossible? It will not once you understand the power that is involved.

    So far, in my view, the most reliable recursive process known to men is probably the "fission chain reaction" -- the exponential expansion of the portal to high octave energy fields stops when the purified fissile material is used up. I wonder whether such knowledge was originally channeled to the human consciousness through connection to the Universal Knowledge Pool, not due to random discovery by the scientists. I suspect that there are other ways to achieve the same effect: pulling massive amount of energy from the higher octaves.

  • Part I
    One of the great significance of the discovery made by Erwin Muller and Tien Tzou Tsong in "Field Ion Microscopy" is that the ubiquitous S/T fields are part of the construction material of the visible matter, and these fields seemingly glue the various atoms or other particles together. This also means that a disturbance in the S/T field could de-struct the visible matters into other formats. For example, it was said that inventor John Keely had created device to turn mine rocks into powder using the power of "sympathetic vibration".

    But the most interesting revelation from this book and other works is that the visible material world constantly take energy from the hyper-plane or higher octaves, which our senses could not yet perceive. The nucleus of each atom is probably a portal to the massive energy fields. The inventions, such as Tariel Kapanadze's electric generator and John Searl's Searl Effect Generator, are man-made devices to serve the portal to the high octave energy field. However, they operates in a linear way.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 2, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Even with $55 (WTI) oil, the damage is already done to the global economy. According to recent research report by Goldman Sachs, a $70 oil price might mean 30% cut in expenses in the oil industry, and almost $1 trillion investment could be at risk. Oil producers to lose $1tn if price below $60 – Goldman Sachs. Although such trend might have great impact on the global economic growth, it is a long-term effect since it takes very long time for businesses to make adjustment in the oil industry.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 2, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    This might sound funny to many people. I guess that the whole system is designed that way.

  • sky_walker616 sky_walker616 Jan 2, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    There books are not easy read, and but the reward, in my view, is substantial.

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