He is a known equity market bull. Why did CNBC invite him to speak this morning?
My guess is that the market makers are seeing lots of incoming sell orders and need to attract buyers to balance their books.
The conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen are simply proxy wars among world powers. The direct conflict among them, i.e. WW3, could be only just a matter of time.
The major powers will try to destroy the communication capability in the space on both sides. It will be a very expensive operation but it is necessary to destroy as many as satellites on the lower Earth orbit and Stationary Orbits. Many known and unknown weapon systems will be employed. The good news are that the human casualty will be at minimum.
If Step One does not stop the war, the major powers will start to destroy the communication and strategic military targets on the Earth surface with known and unknown weapon systems. That operation could be expand to dual-use civilian communication systems.
If Step Two does not stop the war, the major powers will start to attack the strategic targets, such as Three-Gorges Dam in China, and YellowStone National Park in US. If the Yellowstone Super Volcano is induced to erupt, then that would be classified as a global extinction event.
If Step Three is not enough, then powerful devices that could "tear a hole in this Octave of Time-Space" will likely be used.
Sure, it is an abstract form. But people's action as the result of "make-believe" connect it to the physicals, which are subject to the law of the physics.
For example, some people anticipate very generous pension when they retire, then they tend to over-spend now. The law of implosion holds that the expectation of lower or significantly lower pension payout in the future will have an definitive impact on people's behavior right now, which in turn exert adverse pressure on the financial economic system.
It is simple physics.
We all that explosion has tremendous power. But we tend to ignore the fact that the implosion coming after the explosion wields more power.
The explosion/rapid_expansion phase of the credit cycle is behind us, and we are now at the mercy of the implosion phase of the credit cycle. But the law of physics does not have mercy.
There is no good option to exit the massive monetary accommodation without people's suffering.
The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies declines inevitably, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner. Bill Gross believes that we have reached the "saturation point".
One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more than tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.
Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset prices, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.
Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely raise the Fed funds rate. Then plays out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But others think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression In both cases, regular people will suffer, but at least they, in the latter case, can blame the suffering on the war, not on the PONZI financial economic system.
Even if Federal Reserve holds off rate hike and implement instead QE4 by the end of 2015, after seeing deteriorating economic data, it can only postpone the inevitable scenario of 1936/37 but not completely eliminate it. Such scenario, in my view, already exist in the pipeline, as dictated by the inher
ent kinetic mechanism of the financial economic system, and changes in Monetary policy only shift the timing of its arrival.
"Something's gotta give." Even if Federal Reserve holds off rate hike and implement instead QE4 by the end of 2015, after seeing deteriorating economic data, it can only postpone the inevitable scenario of 1936/37 but it cannot completely eliminate it. Such scenario, in my view, already exist in the pipeline, as dictated by the inherent kinetic mechanism of the financial economic system, and changes in Monetary policy only shift the timing of its arrival.
No matter whether Federal Reserve hike the rate, do nothing, or implement QE4 over the course of next two or three years, the scenario of 1936/7 will come sooner or later. The only difference made is the timing of it.
We all know that Federal Reserve will never hike the rate in this credit cycle. And people at Federal Reserve probably knew it too.
The reason you see shifting expectation on rate in the market is because the bond traders needs fluctuation to make a market.
It is possible that, by the end of 2015, the market will start to speculate on QE4, as the negative economic impact of oil price crash starts to show in GDP growth numbers and job growth numbers. The impact could be significant, but the timing usually delay by six to nine months.
According to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partners, we could experience 1936/7 kind of deep recession no matter whether Fed hike rate, do nothing, or implement QE4. The only difference is timing of such scenario.
Even if Federal Reserve decide to drop the rate hike attempt yet again and implement QE4 by the end of 2015, it only serves to postpone the inevitable tremendous sufferings of "deep recession or depression" sometime down the road, but it cannot eliminate it.
Recently, there was report, written by Ray Dalio of BridgeWater Partners, in circulation. He argued that, if Fed hike the rate, then we could experience similar deep recession as the one in 1936-7, which was likely the CAUSE of the WW2. That is why WW3 is really not a very outlandish idea.
I agree. There maybe a rate hike, or there maybe QE4. But the point is that, sooner or later, "something has to give" -- i.e. stock market plus deep recession or depression. That is unfortunately inherent in this PONZI financial economic system. The messages from Bill Gross and Ray Dalio to the Federal Reserve is that we no longer buy into any additional monetary easing on your part. It is a hidden ultimatum.
Therefore, the Ruling Elite needs to find something to shift the blame of the tremendous suffering. WW3.
without people's suffering.
The central bank has been doing monetary easing for six years now, and the marginal utility of continued implementation of such policies decline, as cited by legendary investors such as Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Partner.
One of the monetary policy transmission channel is equity market. It has been up for more than six years now and in some case has more tripled from the 2009 level. We all know that it cannot jump up forever, because more and more institutional investors will have to start to get out as the expected return declines.
Even with 15% average annual run-up in asset price, plus some one-off measures such as Universal Healthcare and Immigration Reform to boost growth, we only had about 2.5% annual GDP growth. Without stock market going up, the economic growth could easily sour within six months.
Some observers expect the stock market continue to climb to allow Federal Reserve safely. Then play out the 1936/37 scenario as outlined by Ray Dalio in his recent research report published by FT. But some others, including myself, think that the WW3 would likely be triggered, then we could see a major market crash. After that, we enter into an economic depression ( for 1/3 of American it is further economic depression.) Regular people will suffer, but at least they can blame the suffering on the war and maybe Putin, not on the PONZI financial economic system.
There was a new report on RT:
"Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces are ready to react to any nuclear strike even if it is lightning fast, SMF Central Command chief said. A retaliatory strike would take place in all circumstances, “without hesitation,” he added."
This is quite troubling, because what if a Jumbo Jet carrying fission bomb flies into a major Russian city and English Mainstream Media blames it on terrorist groups such as ISIL?
How would Russia respond? I think that Putin knows that any nuclear response would be the END of the Era. But if he decides to retaliate, I expect that he would nuke the City of London and New York City, the heart of financial economic system on this planet
Dalio of Bridgewater warned about potential market crash if the Fed is raise the interest rate.
It looks like that the "heavy heart" is quite prevalent in the financial world nowadays. Maybe a 25bps hike in Fed Fund rate has only small impact on the real GDP growth, but the psychological impact could be just enough to break the "camel's back".
EU countries such as UK, Germany, France and Italy recently joined the Asia Development Bank led by China, going against US's wish.
Why? Maybe they might no longer consider US as the "sole superpower".
If the manned Moon landing is indeed faked, then you might wonder what else since then have also been faked.
Simple questions for people to ponder ...
(1) Did NASA really send men to the Moon in 1969? I am not sure because (i) such "miracle" has never happened since 1972, especially after the emergence of HDTV. (ii) NASA sent the human astronaut on the Moon without even field-testing the Lunar Module, which is a big rocket responsible for relaunching the astronauts back to Moon orbit. Would you do that if you were the program director of the Apollo Program?
(2) What "magic force" brought down the WT7 on 9/11? WT7 was not attacked but collapsed evenly at near "free fall" speeds.
If you figure out the answers to these questions after some period of critical thinking and research, then you will understand this world better.
Federal Reserve: US household net worth is now $82.9 Trillion compared with $62 trillion in 2010. So nearly double in stock indices indeed brought the sense of wealth and prosperity, and hence sustained the economic growth.
But will the stock market keep going up?
Hyperinflation in US happens only happen when most of the world refuse to accept US Dollar as form of global payment. That is not going to happen because whichever government refused to accept USD will be bombed out existence.
However, deflation is really the threat. Deflation will lead to the slow-motion collapse of the current financial economic system in large part of the world, especially in UK/US, EU, etc, which is built on the foundation of "time value of money". Negative "time value of money" will eventually destroy the entire system through forced social changes, if not WW3.
The stock market cannot crash, otherwise the WW3 could be just around the corner, despite the seemingly low likelihood at this time.
Sorry for being negative, but I have to speak out when I see a "naked Emporer".
The device is simply too small to hold enough electric juice to support extended recommended operations.
The following is a list of must-have accessories to compensate the weakness of iWatch:
(1) slender bionic finger, engineered with Nano technologies
(2) optical magnifier, or better yet the atomic magnifier that magnifies up to million times.
(3) extra battery charging pack
I think that iWatch 5.0 should be a holographic projector so that we can manipulate all the functionality in 3D.