The western half joins EU and Eastern half joins Russia. Otherwise, there will be unbearable human sufferings.
The market might crash big before it settles down, because nobody has expected crisis in Ukraine could turn into wider conflict, militarily or/and economically. Some hedge funds might fail, similar to LTCM, and will introduce volatility into the market.
My Lord! The slow moving Market Crash has already started. I think that the volume will get heavier later.
Hold on tight. Because the worst is yet to come.
It should be called "Living Wage". Hotel Maids and Burger-flippers should earn enough to live a normal life. Nobody cared previously because those jobs were taken by undocumented immigrants. But now more and more people are taking these jobs given the recession. They deserve to live a normal life.
US. EU might be the reluctant partner in this because they will suffer economically more than US would.
With wider conflict, US can weaken two birds, Russia and EU, with one arrow. But if US back down after the Crimea vote, US will officially lose the title of "sole SuperPower" of the world.
When politicians gamble, the financial market will suffer.
It makes sense to partition Ukraine into Western and Eastern half, so that the former can join EU and the latter can join Russia.
There is a very robust defense industry in the Eastern half of Ukraine, supplying many countries such as Russia, China, etc. If it is merged into EU, this industry will likely obsolete because EU/US will ask Ukraine to purchase weapon systems made in Germany/France/US.
Regrettably, in the end partition might be the best option.
Eastern Ukraine has robust defense industry, supplying both Russia and China. Once in EU, these factories will become obsolete since EU/US will ask Ukraine to buy weapons made in Germany/France/US.
Also, Russia possesses many different classified weapon system that could cause unimaginable damage. That is why Putin is not afraid of US/EU.
We all knew that Putin is a tough. He does not want US/EU to get into his circle of influence. But US/EU apparently deliberately tried to provoke him in Ukraine. Now we are in a stalemate situation.
I would assume whoever decided to provoke Putin in Ukraine has thought the chess game through. Otherwise, we might have bad surprises.
It is interesting to watch C stock price seesawing without regard to the movement of broad market indices.
Does such price action reflect the risk management move?
In case Ukraine asks EU/US to attack from the air, will EU/US comply?
Will that, in small steps, lead to WW 3?
The funny thing is that Crimea is now using the Kosovo case as example to justify its legal capability to declare independence from the State. However, EU and US have changed their interpretation of International Law again.
If you have POWER, you then have "correct" interpretation of LAW.
Many people argued that 2008 financial crisis was triggered by one wall street dumping Subprime mortgages in 2007. ( Check out movie "margin call"). That massive unloading led to severe price/mark deterioration in RMBS market. Subsequently, two Bear Stearn RMBS hedge fund bankrupted and led to further selling and price/market deterioration. The rest is history.
If the Ukrainian crisis continue to escalate, I wonder whether some spread-trading Macro hedge funds would be forced to unload quickly, hence lead to market crash. I am watching the CDS on Eastern EU countries.
Things can get ugly quickly. I wonder whether this was how WW1 and WW2 have started.
One week ago, Putin implied that he would accept a "unity government" in Ukraine and return Crimea. But that is too hard for US/EU to swallow since the "coup installed" government is supported by US/EU at the get-go.
Now the time is running out. Once Crimea joins Russia on March 16, the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine will rise up too. So in the end, "the sword must decide.".
I hope that this is what Obama and Kerry had anticipated.
This might have been planned long ago.
US/EU knew that Russia will not give in on Ukraine, but still sponsored the coup in Kiev. May somebody wants to start the WW 3, after all. And that could be the case soon as the matter continue to escalate and neither side plans to back down.
There is no doubt that Putin likes to gamble.
I hope that Obama and Kerry understand what they are getting into, and have a clear picture of end game. Otherwise, the financial market might experience extreme volatility.
If Ukraine is to be split into two parts: the Pro-Russia Eastern part and Pro-EU Western part, the Western part will suffer a lot because it does not have much economic and geopolitical value to EU and US.
That is to form a "unity" or balanced government in Kiev, fully reflecting the interests of EU and Russia.
I think that Germany and Russia wants this route. But US does not. So eventually, we would likely see Ukraine split into two half.
Search Tariel Kapanadze. His design was inspired by Nikola Tesla's Tesla Coil.
Henry Moray also created a device many years ago. You can search for him.