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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

sky_walker618 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2015 3:32 PM Member since: Jan 27, 2004
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  • Will the ISDA consider this a default event, which would trigger payout on the Credit Default Swap??

  • It make sense for Greece to default in order to get rid of or renegotiate its $300 billion massive debt load. With declining GDP, there is no hope for it to repay all these debt in full face value.

    So Default is probably a good decision.

  • sky_walker618 by sky_walker618 Jun 8, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Part I.
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 8, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Part II:
    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 9, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • Reply to

    "Credit Cycle" Hypothesis

    by sky_walker618 Jun 8, 2015 11:42 AM
    sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 9, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    The truth is usually quite straightforward.

  • Part I.
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 9, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    I wonder why there was never published research on the credit cycles.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 9, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Do you own research and reach your own conclusion, because no paid Wall Street analyst would share with you this kind of truth.

  • Part I.
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 11, 2015 12:41 AM Flag

    Part II
    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 11, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    If you study history, then you know that things always run with cycles -- the repeated patterns.

  • Part I.
    The following are three most recent periods where the US economy experienced "implosion" phase of a multi-decade credit cycle.

    (1) 1929 - 1939
    Some significant geopolitical events that have direct or indirect impact on the timing of the implosion phase of the multi-decade cycle. ( It is important to bear in mind that, although these extraneous events seemed to have been the CAUSE of the onset of the "implosion", they could be manipulated to coincide with it so that people would not blame the economic malaise on the credit contraction dictated by the kinetic mechanism that is inherent in the financial economy. )
    (a) The Great Depression started in Oct 1929, as the stock market on Wall Street crashed. Worldwide nominal GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932.
    (b) In 1933, many banks had closed. The gold convertibility was suspended.
    (c) From 1937-38, a "deep recession" in the depression.
    (d) The US started to recover after the onset of the WW2 in Europe.

    (2) 1971 - 1981
    (a) The collapse of the Bretton Woods I System in August 1971, as the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US Dollar to gold. The result was a depreciation of the dollar and other industrialized nations' currencies. Because oil was priced in dollars, oil producer's real income decreased.
    (b) The Oil Crisis in October 1973. OPEC raised the posted price of oil by 70%, to %5.11 a barrel. Over time, the price rose to as high as $12 by 1974, creating a massive extraneous shock to the US and world economy.
    (c)Nominal yield on 10-year US Treasury Note rose from about 6% in 1971 to more than 15% in 1981. After that, the yield started a multil-decade decline to as low as 1.5% in 2014.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 11, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Part II.

    (3) 2015 - ???
    The US and Global economies were rescued from almost "total collapse" of 2008 financial crisis by the unprecedented "easy money" policies adopted by various central banks, including Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. People all over the world know now that the reserve currency is not just fiat but "make believe" -- Central Banks can print, or borrow from the "thin air", unlimited amount of money. ( That is probably "In God We Trust" is printed on all US Dollar bills) All these monetary and fiscal measures have only served to postpone the onset of the "implosion" phase of this current credit cycle. Several financial industry Titans have commented that the credit expansion in US economy has reached the "saturation point", where each additional unit of new credit/debt can no longer justify the risk of extending such credit/debt. The next to come is likely the contraction phase ( or implosion phase) of the cycle.

    It will be hard to predict the exact outcome of this "implosion", as we have so many unknowns in our financial economic systems: loosely regulated hedge funds, investment pools; financial derivative markets; the extreme dislocation of risk and award; and the last but not the least, the complacency stemmed from multi-decade of boom and perceived prosperity.

    As usual, I think that some extraneous events will break out to disguise the fact that the credit "implosion" or contraction phase is intrinsic to the loosely-regulated financial economy. I hope that the list of possible events does not include WW3. But you have already known the answer, haven't you?

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 12, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    Do some research and see for yourself.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 12, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    It is hard to judge the timing of the peak of an market cycle. But you will feel it with your heart. :-)

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 12, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    Do your own research and reach your own conclusion.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 12, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    The key is to do your own research and profit from it.

  • Reply to

    "Credit Cycle" Hypothesis

    by sky_walker618 Jun 8, 2015 11:42 AM
    sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 15, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    Could we see an one-day 10% drop the major indices? Impossible is nothing.

  • sky_walker618 sky_walker618 Jun 15, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    Do your own research, and reach your own conclusion.

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