"much less levered" -- huh . . . they have way too much debt for what is still primarily a concentrated equity fund . . . both revolvers are fully drawn and expired yesterday.
No press release as of yet. The revolvers both expired yesterday. Not sure what is going on but if they didn't get an extension they are technically insolvent, although I am sure Tokarz will work something out he really has backed himself into a corner at this time.
they de-risked significantly in August which probably paid off on Monday during the spread blowout . . . still think BV probably drops another 50 cents in the third quarter
assuming they are still filing 8-ks the revolvers expire tomorrow and have not been extended . . . surprised there isn't more of a rush for the exits
their revolvers were only extended through Sept 30; look at the latest 8-k; cash on hand is minimal; they probably will get extension but . . .
Very risky investment at this time:
1) revolvers almost fully drawn, maturity end of the month, all assets pledged to revolver!
2) no SEC filings
3) possible massive fraud in Europe
4) auditor just resigned
5) modest liquidity right now for the junky credits and equity they own
no bankruptcy but a rights offering out of the blue would not shock me
nunthia, it has been a difficult time to be in BDCs for sure . . . I sold mine in the summer of 2013 . . . junk bond spreads are back to reasonable levels again . . . MCC has performed very poorly as a public company but if they can earn even 80 cents you get a double digit return . . . unless you believe we will enter a recession in the near future you should probably hold from here . . . there are only two kinds of BDCs, those currently having problems and those that will have problems in the future
BDCs are correlated with junk bonds and small caps, which are up but very modestly . . . know what you own . . . haha that said people obviously want out of this at any price . . . even if they earn 7% ROE from here with the discount to book that is a 9.1% return
market data for ARI seems to be stabilizing bid ask spreads shrinking seems back to "normal" haha would like to add here but I am going to wait it out a bit
the data on bids is all over the place right now I am seeing anywhere between 11.50 and 14.50 so I wouldn't make too much of it . . . should be around $14 to be in line with similar assets at this second
current CAPE (10 yr) is 9.3 . . . cheap but not ridiculous if the market corrects another 20% there and the currency drops another 20% you get about $7-8 for this ETF at which point everything short of a revolution/collapse/depression in Brazil would be priced in . . . stated another way this ETF would have suffered a 2008 style drop . . . and then ANOTHER 2008 style drop
they definitely challenge the notion that external management is always better
I think alot of the risk is priced in at $2.50. I did an IRR analysis assuming you bought today at $2.50, collected 25 cents a year for four years, then 50 cents per year for four years, then sold at $2.50.
IRR is 12% . . . not great for a speculation, but not bad either. If you paid $3.50 for the same stream your IRR is only 6%.
I am in the same boat, i.e., no desire whatsoever to have anything to do with California. They once pursued me relentlessly for $12 in taxes I owned from an MLP that had operations there apparently.
By holding in an IRA I avoid that issue, no? Sorry for the stupid question.
Historically it has been in December, although the history is short. They have averaged about 70 cents in regular dividends BUT with all the economic troubles this year and given the SEC yield is generally around 3% I would expect maybe 50 cents this year. Still a nice yield for a portfolio of small caps.
It is down about 75% from the alltime high. Looks like a constant currency basis it would be down about 50% with the real decline also contributing 50%.
Still grossly underperforming in terms of earnings. Current NII of 25 cents. NAV continues to fall. But yeah, short covering will take it to $12 before it rolls over again.
Another horrible quarter, 25 cents NII NAV declining in the best venture investment market arguable of all time.
Dividend should be cut to 24 cents and fair value for the stock is $10.