Sun, Dec 28, 2014, 3:49 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Saratoga Investment Corp. Message Board

slcehamrick 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 11:17 AM Member since: May 24, 2008
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Not Adding Here

    by slcehamrick Dec 18, 2014 10:12 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Dec 18, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    haha technical analysis is a bit of magic eight ball but gaps represent points of emotion on a chart and I just think some of the panic buying may get retraced . . . I do think it is undervalued though . . . notice that it reached your buy point today before retracing . . . did you lighten up any?

  • slcehamrick by slcehamrick Dec 18, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    I bought some in the high 8s, think $1.20 dividend is sustainable, will probably see $10 in January BUT I hate that gap and go chart today and think someone with some patience will get it at $9 at some point in the next few weeks. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    Great buying opportunity.

    by analyst112 Nov 14, 2014 12:12 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Nov 14, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Good post.

    When was the last buyback? I think it has been awhile.

    Don't disagree that it is cheap IF you assume that the current weakness is temporary. They built six stock barges . . . never a good sign during the third quarter, whcih is usually pretty busy.

    The repair/conversion business, which is O&G focused, was the culprit in the weak results. I don't see a big snap back any time soon . . . too much damage to the gulf O&G industry at the moment.

    That said, anything below $30 would be a gift. I have owned CNRD since 2005 and sold half my shares this summer but would be interesed in buying back in a couple of quarters, or below $30 whichever comes first.

    I thought your comment about short term traders was interesting. I do think CNRD has a very different shareholder base than a couple of years ago because it became so popular in "value world". I think ALOT of people are in this in the mid thirties and above, which means we could see some tax loss harvesting into year end or at least into the dividend announcement (or nonaccouncement . . . remember they are VERY conservative) next month.

  • slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 30, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    They are growing but are they profitable. That is what I am working on figuring out today. At first glance I see the write down was the equivalent of 75% of the reported profit over the last business cycle. Book value per share (and I realize the share count is down 30%) is about what it was a decade ago.

    If you assume that last year's report EPS of $2.40 should have been $1.20 we are right now at 18x trailing earnings, which seems about right to me given the growth rate AND the lingering questions.

    If there were liquid options I might do a risk reversal on this (ie sell a put around $15 to buy a call around $25) but like I said I am like the rest of Wall Street scratching my head to figure out if they are really making any profit.

  • Reply to

    well, that explains a few things

    by johnptoman Oct 27, 2014 7:55 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 29, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    You never know I guess but yeah it makes sense. It is always something. Jeesh.

  • Reply to

    Expectations for this afternoon?

    by extraordinarypaperclips Oct 28, 2014 2:06 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 29, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    good call, just a little optimistic

  • slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 17, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    ZIV tracks a specific index that shorts the seventh month VIX futures contract and gradually rolls that short down to the 4th month futures contract. CS has very little do with the pricing and if you track ZIV against ZIV.iv you will see that.

    The back end of the VIX futures are pancake flat right now so you (currently) aren't getting any roll yield for holding it. There has been a fairly sharp contango to the back end of the curve in recent years, although it wasn't always that way.

    Hope that helps.

  • Reply to

    what's going on today

    by westrend Oct 10, 2014 10:29 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 10, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    As they say in the NFL "on further review" I think Immelt's comments today that GE is going to aggressively divest financial assets may cause some to think the SSLP program with ARCC has about run its course.

  • Reply to

    what's going on today

    by westrend Oct 10, 2014 10:29 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Oct 10, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    Institutions are selling what they can . . . ARCC has better liqudity for that purpose than most. I have been out of BDCs for a long time but ARCC is starting to look interesting.

  • slcehamrick by slcehamrick Sep 30, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Anybody have the post offering NAV? I am thinking about $15.35.

SAR
15.00+0.02(+0.13%)Dec 26 4:07 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Virgin America Inc.
NASDAQFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:00 PM EST
Moody's Corporation
NYSEFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:01 PM EST