Ellington Financial LLC Message Board
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the short front long back end (xvix) strategy absolutely killed in it 2004-07, 20-30% with little volatility
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do your contracts have an assignment clause? if so they will be assigned through the purchase agreement and ancillary agreements to the new buyer? if the contracts are not assignable they will need your company's approval to make the assignment
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don't worry the operating subs are staying in business
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Haven't looked at his in a long time but it seems like with $120ml in debt (assuming current assets and liabilities net out) and assuming you get about $200ml in after debt proceeds. The tax rate will be low but adding in severance and losses to liquidation it looks like maybe $150ml net against a market cap of $168ml so what am I missing. I am ignoring the CVRs and the warrants which seem pretty much worthless.
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Well, you are playing a different part of the Vix futures curve with ZIV. My feeling is at the moment the futures curve is too flat on the back end for ZIV to be worth it. You have a roll yiield of maybe 1.5% per month, down from the 3-4% we were getting, but are exposed to ever greater risk of a spike.
Trade a like right now is actually LONG back end of the futes against a short of the front end. JMHO GLTA - Reply to
Low Float Dividend Paying Tech Stock with Fast Ramping Up EPS!
by jtdmnf533 •May 16, 2013 5:20 AMCouple of points I would add (this is a company I follow a little).
1. Management pays themselves very reasonable salaries by tech standards, with the top four guys taking down an average of about $2ml collectively per year over the past few years.
2. Management has never really purchased any stock with cash but there are a couple of strong value investors present at above the 5% level in the shareholder base, including Lloyd Miller III, who I really admire. - Reply to
Clinton withdraws nominations for board, now cooperating with MP while buying more stock
by jennfrc2007 •May 13, 2013 9:48 PMI have been nibbling on the dips to 65-66 cents. At least I know what my downside is! Ha. I am in the camp that thinks the ultimate realization will be around $1.05 to $1.30 sometime in the next two years.
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thanks for the tip on the 30 yr . . . I remain long risk and am even long VXX put spreads again but my favorite trade right now is short the front part of the curve and long 1.5x notionally the back VIX futures, i.e., the old XVIX trade . . . playing for the vix curve to steepen out a bit here . . . was a steady 1-2% per month earner during the 04-07 period, hoping for a repeat
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oh, to be sure, the moves this week are nothing like a blow off top in the VIX Matt . . . both 2000 and 2007 exhibited multiweek uptrends for spot VIX while the markets ground (2007) or exploded (2000) higher . . . just a potential at this point
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I bought 3k at 24.80. Based on KAP as comp I think they will trade to $26.50 almost immediately on listing with YTM of around 6.5%. The common has been great but I have been out (sadly) since the low 16s. In a market like this if they announce a $2 dividend I think the stock actually will trade at a 105-110% of NAV. Good luck.
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hah, was just going to post the same thing . . . could run for many days, though, before the big 4-5% dump . . . we will see . . .I am staying short VXX put spreads (got a short signal again last Thursday) but have purchased a few $VIX calls for August as a hedge
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I see PICO getting touted on value boards all the time. I have always passed because you have to discount the assets HUGE because of management parasites. Haven't looked closely at this for the past year and a half. Has anything really changed on the management front? It has always been an interesting collection of assets but if I have to wait until Hart is 75 to make money it doesn't work for me.
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Quoted off the exchange pre-listing at 24.85 for about 7.6% yield to worst. I like them better than the common here, risk of loss is pretty low (although not zero by any means).. Unrated. If they trade like the others you should get a fairly safe 12% over the next twelve months including potential cap gain.
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Been in cash since $22.80! Wish I had more courage.
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only makes sense to me if there is a secondary announcement tonight but now they wouldn't get more than the high 17s after the underwriter discount so I doubt it. . . I bought for the first time ever at $19
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With VIX currently over 17 todays close will be a tell.
by recovering_capitalist •Apr 18, 2013 11:50 AMyes Matt and from a contrarian perspective it helps build the bearish case for equities IMHO
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IBM missed revenue huge. This going to freak out the buy the dip people. Normally the VIX doesn't move on one stock but I think IBM is a big deal.
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With VIX currently over 17 todays close will be a tell.
by recovering_capitalist •Apr 18, 2013 11:50 AMI am looking more at VVIX . . . if there is going to be fear it will start there . . . would expect to see a cluster of 110 plus closes (we don't have any yet) . . . if we can't get vvix above 115 or so I think we DONT break out of the current volatility trading range of 11-20
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if the vix moves higher it will be a process, not an event . . . historically at least the vix takes a long time to move from one trading range to another . . . maybe I am turning into a perma bear in my old age but I feel a spike to 35 coming on . . . but not until August or so . . . maybe one last gasp new high for equitiies in between
I think a major black swan this fall will be the new health care law -
will give an "exit your short" signal at the close today, barring a miracle final hour. Other than the brief whipsaw around New Years have been short through long put spreads since December 12. Could be another whipsaw but I expect to be out for awhile this time.