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Ellington Financial LLC Message Board

slcehamrick 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 7, 2016 2:08 PM Member since: May 24, 2008
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  • Reply to

    S&P/LSTA Index Watch

    by newly_minted_bucks Mar 2, 2016 10:54 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Mar 7, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    just sold mine into this mini ramp 10% in a week was enough . . . glta . . . fair value is about $9.25 IMHO but if credit overshoots to the upside like it did to the downside in early January a quick run to $10.50 is in the cards

  • Reply to

    ACSF should have announced by now

    by claio86_899 Feb 8, 2016 4:45 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 29, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    I bought a little last week. There is alot of gamma here because the CLO is performing okay so this could see $9 in a hurry.

  • Reply to

    THANK YOU, ARI...

    by ninja69turtle Feb 26, 2016 8:57 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 26, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Do shareholders of both need to approve . . . I assume so, based on the size of the deal. I am doing a fair value calculation now and will post in a couple minutes.

  • Reply to

    This is a sad story

    by slcehamrick Feb 23, 2016 1:05 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 25, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    CLO exposure peaked at 22% of assets (38% of equity) in 2014. The gentle de-levering they currently are doing seems to be concentrated in loans rather than CLO equity.

  • Reply to

    ACSF should have announced by now

    by claio86_899 Feb 8, 2016 4:45 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 24, 2016 4:40 PM Flag

    Okay, I found your mistake (unless I am using the wrong credit agreement, I am looking at the one dated Dec 2013 attached to the original proxy).

    It is 70-80% on the firsts depending on category and only 50% on the seconds. So if you re-run those numbers I think you will see mine are correct.

  • Reply to

    How much dividend?

    by thewisejman Feb 11, 2016 8:09 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 24, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    re: CMFN, I don't follow it but the Q1 so far has been alot worse than Q4 for high yield. If NAV dropped $1.48 last quarter why wouldn't you assume it is down, say, another $1.75 this quarter. Still a 30% discount but . . .

  • Reply to

    ACSF should have announced by now

    by claio86_899 Feb 8, 2016 4:45 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 24, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    NMB:

    Here is the math I am using. Tell me what I have wrong if you don't mind. Some of it involves estimates of course because we know spreads have gone out since year end but don't know exactly how much fair value of the loans has declined.

    Anyway, there was 170ml of first and 23ml of second (rounding up) at year end. Assume 15ml of losses on firsts and 3ml on seconds (probably too low given the spread blow out). That gives them 155 and 20 respectively. Assuming 70-80% allowable LTV (not sure of exact number are you?) and 50% respectively that gives max advances of $118.5ml to $130ml, borrowing base, probably closer to the former. Call it $10ml in current cushion.

    That means if spreads move out another 100 bps (that would be another leg down of course) they will be around the noncompliance area. Will they get waivers? Sure, no doubt.

    BTW, they have been taking a bit of leverage off the last couple of quarters as principal payments have exceeded new investments moderately. They probably are continuing to run off the portfolio this quarter, not sure what they have said about that.

    Anyway, net net, because they overlevered at the top they are forced to do modest delevering at the exact moment there are bargains appearing. And they are only a solid leg down (similar to the leg from mid November to today) from potentially being forced to ramp up the delever, locking in permanent capital losses.

    Things will probably be just fine, but there is alot of gamma to this investment right now..

  • Reply to

    This is a sad story

    by slcehamrick Feb 23, 2016 1:05 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 24, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    CLO is only at 16% because it has been marked down by 40% from peak

  • slcehamrick by slcehamrick Feb 23, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    ACSF had so many things going for it. A reasonable fee structure, a focus on first lien senior secured etc. It had potential to actually be a sustainable, buy and hold type of investment. Instead of shooting for an 7-8% or so ROE in a bubble-ish credit environment they decided to try for 10-12% and ended up putting the full 30% of the nonqualified bucket into CLO equity. If they had kept the CLO bucket at say 15%, yes, their NII would have peaked out at around 88 cents per quarter but still would have been a nice, sustainable 7% yield -- with the potential to recycle their senior assets into higher coupons during the downturn. Now the downturn is at hand (over?) and they are just one credit swoon/lender panic from being forced to de-lever at the bottom of the credit cycle.

  • slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 17, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    I am encouraged that the special committee is all independent directors. They probably had to agree to reverse the fee waiver to get the advisor on board. Current NAV is probably around $3.40 in light of the post Dec 31 deals and the spread widening. Say it takes six months to complete a sale and the NII is enough to cover the ongoing expenses. Say high yield stabilizes but doesn't rally. What would a buyer pay?

    25% discount to NAV would be $3.40 times .75 or $2.55. That is probably the best case scenario. Worst case is that spreads blow out further, it takes a year to get a deal done, and they only get .65x NAV. That would be maybe $2.90 times .65 or about $1.95, which is about where I would give this a whirl. We'll see what they say on the call.

  • Reply to

    Insanity

    by mysonchino Jan 13, 2016 12:06 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 9, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    can't argue with anything you wrote except you need to pay careful attention to how much of the NII currently is PIK and becomes PIK . . . as they restructure the energy credits it could be a problem . . . PIK was already 25% of total NII last quarter . . . but if we skirt recession AND they do a good job certainly 90 cents could be sustainable, although it would require an NAV more like $8-8.50

    there is definitely some room for expense control, including making the fee reduction permanent, which offers upside and is a growing possibility as external managers start to see more activist activity in this space

  • Reply to

    Latest Quarterly Results...

    by blauberry Feb 4, 2016 6:30 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 9, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    well I am glad to be in the same BDC as you . . . I notice Jack Silver seems to lightening up on PFLT and shifting to SUNS . . . they are pretty similar but PFLT has a slightly lower cost of funds

    check out the Barrons article on Tannenbaum, FSAM, FSC etc. I think the FSC baby bonds are a good short here as I think they are going to find massive fraud eventually

  • Tempting if you don't think bankruptcy is in the cards.

  • Reply to

    Latest Quarterly Results...

    by blauberry Feb 4, 2016 6:30 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 8, 2016 9:55 AM Flag

    ugh, typing too fast, the 8%, base cost is 5% not 4-4.5%, so including charge offs it is 6%, coupon of 8% is 2% net net, not 2.5%, sorry, still think that is a conservative projection with significant upside if underwriting quality, coupons, or expense control exceed my skeptical projections.

  • Reply to

    Latest Quarterly Results...

    by blauberry Feb 4, 2016 6:30 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 8, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    Cost of funds around 3%. (includes amortization of renegotiation fees that they exclude but I amortize basically they are semi-recurring), base management fee of 1%, other expenses (including incentive fee) around 1% adds up to call it 4-4.5%, average coupon 8% for net margin of 3.5%, that would be conservative because coupons may move higher but if they are going to 80-90% leverage in very slow growth environment I assume they stick to very senior and very secured. Charge offs? Figure 2% CDR with good recovery rate so call it 1%. That gets a 2.5% net margin figure. How do you see it?

  • Reply to

    honest opinions: Should I average down ?

    by sujit_98 Feb 5, 2016 4:17 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 5, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Yes, if you buy 10000 shares your average price will be $108.

  • Reply to

    Etrade sold-off most of my port holdings

    by bradreasons2000 Feb 5, 2016 4:18 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 5, 2016 4:28 PM Flag

    They may have done you a favor depending on the time of day they sold, most of those stocks went down as they day went on.

  • Reply to

    Latest Quarterly Results...

    by blauberry Feb 4, 2016 6:30 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 5, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    yeah it is gonna be tight getting NII up to the 26 cent area where the dividend is sustainable . . . if they add another $200ml in earning assets on the various credit facilities as a NET spread of 2% you get an extra $4ml in NII, divided by 26 million shares, that is 3 cents per quarter, or 25 cents

    if they could get a 3.5% spread (possible in the current pricing environment) then you get 29 cents per quarter, which would be full coverage

  • Reply to

    Insanity

    by mysonchino Jan 13, 2016 12:06 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Feb 5, 2016 9:32 AM Flag

    I wish they had ripped the bandaid off instead of restructuring so many of these credits into zero current pay instruments. Anyway, updated analysis:

    $7.82 if energy marked to zero, so figure NAV more like $6.50 at the low in the event of recession.

    Current NII (less fee waiver and PIK is about 18 cents). So long run (next full business cycle from here) looks like about 65 cents would be a very sustainable dividend.

    They did such a good job managing through the last downturn, nursing the bad credits back to health, that there could be a bit of upside from those numbers. But 9x a very safe 65 cent dividend would be $5.85. For me that is fair value.

EFC
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