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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

sleepless1111 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2015 5:06 PM Member since: Apr 7, 2006
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  • Reply to

    facts are facts

    by c78596998785 Feb 12, 2015 7:18 AM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Feb 12, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    Does anyone want to take advice from someone who can't even do simple math? From 500K to 2M is a 300% increase, not 400%.

    A significant drop in price on large volume indicates an absence of liquidity. It may or may not be preceded by a news event.

    Your facts aren't really facts.

  • Reply to

    I'm out. And lost enough.

    by chc1 Feb 11, 2015 3:42 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Feb 12, 2015 2:03 AM Flag

    Doctor? LOL I guess we can be anything we want on the internet behind a facade.

    Your original post was full of errors or lies... take your pick. I refuted every point that you made but you seem to want to just claim being a doc and just gloss over the details. Doctors don't talk like you. They are much more meticulous and knowledgeable, which you clearly are not.

    You made the claim "any company can do the same without violating any patent"... that is an utter ridiculous statement. So qualify and explain how and why that makes sense without being general.

    You also shouldn't directly compare a cancer vaccine with a antiviral HepC drug. Sovaldi and Harvoni are breakthrough drugs, one because of improved SVR & shortened treatment and the other because of even shorter treatment duration and elimination of interferon. VGX-3100 would also be a breakthrough drug if approved, because there is NO current treatment available for cervical dysplasia except surgery. Just because response rates were not 95% doesn't mean that it's not a breakthrough. And VGX-3100 is only a 1st generation vaccine for INO... follow on candidates with adjuvants, antibodies, enhanced EP, etc, will improve the results just as it did for Sovaldi and Harvoni for HepC.

    You are not a doctor. You're not even smart enough to play one on YMBs.

  • Reply to

    I'm out. And lost enough.

    by chc1 Feb 11, 2015 3:42 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Feb 12, 2015 12:16 AM Flag

    You (chc1) should stop talking out of your a--.

    There's plenty of companies working on DNA vaccines, but INO's SynCon DNA + EP has shown to generate robust activated killer T-cells better than ANY other DNA platform tested to date... sometimes by more than 100X. So that means change ONE gene sequence and it won't work like INO's SynCon. And this is the KEY - change ANYTHING and you need to run a complete set of new clinical trials.

    There's also many forms of delivery platforms for DNA vaccines, including the gene gun (PFE) and viral vectors. Nothing comes even CLOSE to the safety and efficacy of EP... and INO controls 70 - 80% of the patents on EP and EP devices. Only real competition for INO on EP is Ichor, but their tests to date have not yielded the same dramatic results that INO has produced.

    Your post is also illogical. If INO's technology is flawed, why did you invest in the first place? Oh I know, you didn't have a position to begin with.

  • sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Feb 6, 2015 1:17 AM Flag

    I agree w/ your general premise except that the mkt has given LINE a 7% yield before (2.9/40 = 7.25%). Especially given the interest rate race down to zero worldwide, if oil climbs high enough I think it can get there again. A lot of things have to "line" up before then, but that implies a ceiling of $17.50 or so.

  • Reply to

    Stuck my toe-in yesteday

    by shorting_amazon Jan 21, 2015 10:33 AM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Jan 21, 2015 11:37 PM Flag

    Stocks ALWAYS bottom before crude does. Brush up on your history.

  • Reply to

    A buy at $5

    by mlp1invest Dec 31, 2014 7:55 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 31, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    You will never get it. Wishful thinking isn't a very good investment strategy.

  • Reply to

    Someone help me out

    by racemaster123 Dec 30, 2014 10:01 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 31, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    These are some of the reasons why Boone Pickens is calling for $90 Brent within 12-18 months. He said to keep an eye on the rig count, which going by history will likely be cut in half (peak to trough). Probably within 4-5 months, a bit longer given the capex already scheduled. Doesn't mean oil production will get cut in half since the least productive rigs get shut down first. SA and OPEC just needs to hold production flat, US/Canada high cost producers can swing since the excess supply is small (10-15% of US production).

    Also, a CNBC guest analyst mentioned that equities historically bottoms first before oil does. That means you should start buying if you think oil is within striking distance of the bottom. I'm already long since I don't know where the bottom is, but if it falls further I'm significantly increasing my position.

    Given oil's bottom in the mid 30's back in 2009, and given the increased cost of driling (labor, equipment, land lease, etc), I can't see oil falling below 40 for any meaningful amt of time. We don't have SA cutting production as they did in 2009, but the high cost regions/wells will take their place.

  • sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 27, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    LINE is a dynamic entity, they have shown to be very shrewd in doing deals that improve coverage.. all they need is a little bit of time.

    The likely scenario is they'll cut and the price is already reflective of that. Unless they significantly cut it, signaling trouble, a modest cut will raise the stock price. You're dreaming if you think it'll drop $2 on a modest cut.

    You're also ignoring possibilities that will raise the price of oil/gas.. legislation that will increase the export of LNG, strategic turn around from OPEC, additional deals to increase DCF coverage, selling of assets to buy back depressed shares, etc.

    It's just a ball park calculation, but worst case shortfall is about $240MM for this year and next. $3.8B*0.45*.35*.4 (rev*%oil*%unhedged*%discount)= $240MM. Should be less than this, some of their revenues are neither straight selling of gas/oil. That's about $20MM/month or less, which is only 0.5% of their revenues.

    My take is that they WON'T cut and absorb any shortfall in the short term because:

    1) Oil can easily stabilize in the next 6 months which will allow for less extreme measures
    2) They will start looking for deals like they did with XOM to improve DCF coverage
    3) Look for inefficiencies to reduce cost and improve margins
    4) Pursue possible regulatory changes to allow export increases of oil & nat gas

    My prediction is that they will cut dist in the summer of '15, and it will be a very modest one (less than 25%). By then oil prices will have stabilized and their cost structure will be more efficient.

  • sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 5, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Look at the futures curve a few years out. And compare it to the curve a few months ago b4 the decline. it's uncanny how it points to the same price region, $75-$85. It was contango when the spot prices were $90-$100, and now it's normal backwardation with spot @ $66.

    Anyone who believes oil can go much lower from here and stay there isn't thinking straight. The cost of pumping and transporting oil is only going up... labor, materials, equipment, LOE's, are higher than it was 5 years ago, and it'll still be even higher 5 years from now. Shale oil depletes quickly, and without new drilling production will decline. And most importantly, demand picks up as prices fall.

    Companies are not commodities that stand idle. They are dynamic entities that adjust to changing conditions. Case in point - what do u think will happen to a company's cost structure when revenues fall? A smart management will adjust accordingly to survive the times. LINE has a lot of assets on its books and management has a lot of options on the table in regards to managing its debt and cost structure. Going forward, more deals like the ones it did with XOM will be forthcoming, and that can possibly reduce debt and improve coverage.

  • Reply to

    X date soon! Get your covers

    by bigjohnson499 Dec 4, 2014 5:27 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 4, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    You probably don't even know how much debt they have.

    It's very manageable. After the deals settle by end of year, they will have about $10B, 6 in bonds, 4 rolling. In the neighborhood of $500M-$600M in interest payments against $3.6B in revenues. That's if they decide to leave the debt on the books and not sell any assets to pay that down.

    Look at the futures curve to see what prices the mkts are pointing to 3 yrs out. It's the same area ($80-$85 WTI) that the futures curve was indicating b4 the drop in oil the last few months. The hedges will protect the company until then.

  • Reply to

    Guesses on new dividend

    by gpd8252 Nov 28, 2014 4:18 PM
    sleepless1111 sleepless1111 Dec 2, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Your numbers are way off. I posted this on stocktwits.

    Shortfall for 2015 & 2016 is only about $45M and $65M respectively, given current oil prices. A bit higher (possibly and not definitively) given unhedged differentials and other factors. Can easily be made up via inefficiencies.

    Year 2015: 0.07[% not hedged] * (85-70)/85 [shortfall from avg hedged price] * 3.6B [total revenues] = $45M [revenue shortfall]

    Year 2016: 0.12[% not hedged] * (85-72)/85 [shortfall from avg hedged price] * 3.6B [total revenues] = $66M [revenue shortfall]

    If they cut, it'll be in 2017 and oil prices have to stay at these levels or lower until then AND LINE doesn't do any deals that enhance production... like the swap that they did with XOM.

    Right now the futures curve is in backwardation so any hedging is done at higher prices than the spot price. $73-$76 range for 2017. The shortfall is manageable for 2017 compared to the avg hedged price of $85.

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